By Ethan S. Smith – @mvp_EtHaN / @LockedOnPirates
Welcome to the 2025 Player Profile Series everyone.
For starters, these profiles are based off of what we know at the time of writing, barring surprise extensions, signings, injuries, or anything else that could impact a player’s overall framework heading into the Pittsburgh Pirates 2025 campaign.
I couldn’t find a better way to kick off this series of pieces than with Paul Skenes, who had a 2024 rookie campaign filled with magical moments, grace, and even a little attitude, in a good way of course, that resulted in NL Rookie of the Year honors, All-MLB honors, an All-Star Game starting appearance, all which put the young superstar in MLB’s spotlight as one of the game’s top young stars.
So, the elephant in the room question has to be, what kind of encore does Skenes have in store for 2025?
As far as the statistics are concerned, Skenes was nothing short of elite, collecting 170 strikeouts in 133.0 IP, equating to a 11.50 K/9, all while posting a 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, numbers otherwise reserved for elite closer company.
Skenes last 15 outings of his total of 23 were among his best, posting a 1.87 ERA in 86.2 IP with 109 strikeouts and a 0.92 WHIP, which helped solidify his superb season among the best in the National League, and well, all of baseball.
All of these impressive numbers come before you even sniff the advanced analytics, which saw Skenes place himself in the 90th percentile or higher in xERA(2.53), xBA(.193) and strikeout rate(33.1), coupled with impressive metrics in ground ball rate(52.3), barrel rate(5.2), whiff rate(28.7) and pitching run value(31), making for quite the red out on his Statcast page.
Again, this was all in 133 innings, a number that will surely be surpassed in 2025, seeing as Skenes will begin the season on the MLB roster and likely be the headliner in what could be one of baseball’s best rotations.
Steamer projections via FanGraphs have Skenes slotting in at 188 innings, about 47 innings short of his collegiate total between his time at Air Force and LSU(235) and about 55 innings more than his 2024 total. The Steamer projections are paired with a 2.80 ERA and 242 strikeouts in 31 starts, suggesting Skenes sees an uptick in usage without eclipsing the 200+ IP mark.
Expectations would expect Skenes to once again appear in the Mid Summer Classic, seeing as he was among the best pitchers in the NL in 2024, all while MGM Sportsbook expects Skenes to seriously compete for the coveted Cy Young Award in 2025 as well, having him as the betting frontrunner for the award ahead of 2024 winner Chris Sale, Zach Wheeler and newly signed Dodgers left-hander Blake Snell.
Strictly staying at the Pirates perspective, the expectation for Skenes should be to be the frontrunner of a pitching staff that should be headlined by Skenes himself and the impressive duo of Mitch Keller, who has been the workhouse of the staff since 2022, and rookie standout Jared Jones, who has his own unique expectations heading in 2025.
One would also expect Skenes to step up as a vocal leader of the clubhouse in 2025, especially after this statement to the Pittsburgh Post Gazette at PiratesFest,
“I don’t know what the character of that will be, but I’ll have probably a little more say-so,” Skenes said. “… I’m not going to overstep, but winning is winning. We’ve got to do what we’ve got to do to make it happen.”
Skenes becoming a vocal leader in the clubhouse would have massive impacts, seeing as a ton of the success the Pirates strive for in 2025 hinges on Skenes and the starting pitching group, and with 2025 being such a crucial year, a step forward for Skenes, which would be even more impressive than what we witnessed in 2024, would no doubt elevate the club as a whole to what they desire, bringing competitive baseball back to Pittsburgh.
Health plays a major factor for Skenes as well, with arm injuries for hard throwing starting pitchers, and even relievers, at an all-time high across all of baseball, and 2024 was a relatively healthy season for Skenes as he stretched himself out across his first MLB season, and one hopes his arm, and overall health, can remain intact for his, and the team’s, sake.
An increase in workload, which is expected, does not mean Skenes won’t be on some kind of innings limit, seeing as the team will do anything it can to protect one of, if not their most important, asset in decades, and going back to Steamer’s projections, 180-190 innings would seem like an ideal range for Skenes in his second season.
Take Atlanta Braves ace Spencer Strider for example. Strider, considered one of MLB’s best pitchers and workhorses, threw 131.2 innings across 20 starts in his first full campaign with the Braves. The following season, he elevated his workload to 186.2 innings, a 55 inning increase, posting 200-plus strikeouts in both campaigns. Expect a similar uptick for Skenes, who would also look to avoid the surgery that came Strider’s way the following season, the dire reality to increasing the workload on any starting pitcher nowadays.
Injuries aside, 2025 has every chance to be as magical, if not more magical, than what we as fans and the club witnessed from the generational talent that is Skenes in 2024. Skenes has a unique skillset, coupled with through the roof potential, that could make him one of the best pitchers to ever do it when his career comes to a close, which mind you is a very, very long time from now.
In all likelihood, Skenes will begin his campaign as the Opening Day starter at Miami when the season kicks off and beyond that, and what this profile should have told you, just sit back, watch, and marvel and what a generational pitching talent, especially in the Black and Gold, looks like, because they don’t come around often and the talent should be appreciated by everyone, even outside of this fanbase.
I want to end each profile with the player’s top moment, in my mind, from 2024, and for Skenes, its hard to imagine any moment better than his first at PNC Park, which is now highlighted by his 1/1 Topps debut patch card being found by an 11-year old in Los Angeles.
Steel City Pirates 