By Ethan S. Smith – @mvp_EtHaN / @LockedOnPirates
“The rest is still unwritten.”
To some, that is a popular verse from the 2004 hit single “Unwritten” by Natasha Bedingfield.
For Jared Jones, it was his walk-up music prior to each of his starts during the 2024 season, as well as a moniker for whats to come for the future of his career.
Jones became lost in the shuffle a bit after Paul Skenes debuted last season, seeing as Skenes became worthy of the generational tag rather quickly, but there is plenty to be said about what Jones was able to accomplish in 2024.
Jones, like many, began his journey in 2024 in Bradenton at Pirates City for Spring Training, and although his debut was expected last season, many expected it to be later into the season, seeing as Jones pitched just 82 innings at AAA-Indianapolis the year prior.
The young right-hander was the number 11 prospect via MLB Prospects by the end of 2023 and quickly rose into the top-five as the offseason progressed and hype surrounded his potential debut, and what came next is rarely seen in the baseball space.
Jones tossed 16.1 innings of scoreless baseball in Spring Training, tallying 15 strikeouts along the way and allowing an impressive .167 batting average against in the small sample size, but it was enough to convince general manager Ben Cherington to bring Jones along with the big league club to begin the season.
His impact was felt immediately, as Jones struck out 10 Miami Marlins batters while allowing just three earned runs in his big league debut on 89 pitches, putting all the spotlight on the young right-hander as a new, potentially elite addition to the starting rotation.
Jones followed by tossing six innings for the Pirates in their home opener versus Baltimore, kick-starting a 2.86 ERA month of April. May and June weren’t as impressive, seeing the ERA balloon to 3.99 and 3.97 in those months, but Jones became a steady force in the rotation alongside Mitch Keller, even before the eventual seismic arrival of Paul Skenes.
Injuries would plague the back half of the season for Jones though, as he missed nearly two months before returning fully in September, his worst month of the season thanks to a 5.06 ERA. Nevertheless, Jones turned heads quickly and solidified himself as a future piece of the Pirates rotation, which has the makings of a potential top-10 unit.
That catapults Jones to 2025, a season that will likely see an increase in workload for Jones, who threw 121.2 innings in 2024. Fatigue played a factor last season, seeing as it was clearly the most Jones has ever pitched in a single campaign, although he came close in 2023 in the minors, but a slowing down of his skillset was expected in his debut campaign.
Now, with Jones being apart of a strong trio that also consists of Keller and Skenes, the expectation is to increase that workload. To what degree is unclear, but one would expect, health permitting, for that innings total to increase.
Of course one would hope that the increase comes with play closer to his first-half of 2024 self, rather than the injury and fatigue riddled second half, and honing down a strong third pitch could do that for Jones.
Jones is well-known for his strong fastball, slider duo, seeing as that combination of pitches is what made Jones such an intriguing prospect to begin with, but his reliance on those pitches both helps and hurts him.
The fastball and slider combined for 84.1-percent of Jones usage in 2024, while a curveball and changeup made small appearances here and there. Jones was very aware of this, even saying this to Alex Stumpf of MLB.com,
“I think the scouting report is fastball-slider, and if it’s anything else, just spit [on it], it’s probably not going to be a strike.”
Jones said this in September, the month that saw his curveball usage as its highest(15.7-percent), and his willingness to add a third pitch he can rely on this offseason has been a central focus for Jones, who even expressed interest in learning Paul Skenes’ splinker pitch, but whether he learns it or not won’t matter unless a third pitch shows good results.
Both the curveball and changeup were hit at above a .300 batting average last season, but the sample size is rather small, seeing as both pitches were thrown less than 200 times. The fastball and slider saw rather good results, with each accounting for 59 strikeouts, while his curveball and changeup accounted for just a combined 14 strikeouts on the year.
If Jones can successfully make the curveball, changeup or any third pitch a reliable one and not just a throwaway pitch, his ceiling could raise itself to All-Star caliber, and pairing it with the intensity Jones shows on the mound could result in even better production.
Health plays a massive part in all of this as well, because, unlike Skenes, Jones has an injury “history” already, which of course is a factor with any young pitcher nowadays. If Jones stays healthy and his added workload isn’t too much for him, he and Skenes could create one of baseball’s most dynamic young pitching duos in the process.
Jones should also be the benchmark for what to expect from rookie pitchers moving forward in Pittsburgh. Skenes was damn near perfect last year, and that can’t be expected of every young starter, but if Jones can set the precedent for the likes of Bubba Chandler and others for a rookie season, surely the team will welcome that with open arms.
“I’m just beginning” is yet another set of lyrics from Unwritten, and that is precisely what Jones is doing. He is in the beginning of what could wind up being a rather impressive career when all said and done, and if one of those secondary pitches can improve and Jones can stay healthy, 2025 should be just as, if not more impressive than one of the better rookie campaigns we’ve seen from a rookie starter in Pittsburgh, outside of Skenes of course.
“No one else can feel it for you, only you can let it in.” That should be the feeling of hype around Jones in 2025, feel it, embrace it, and watch as Jones continues to mature and hone his craft and become a strong starter in this league, because his rookie campaign was just planting the seeds for a potential breakout campaign in 2025.
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