1/29/25 – Ethan S. Smith – @mvp_EtHaN/@LockedOnPirates
The starting rotation appears to be the biggest strength of the Pittsburgh Pirates roster after the 2024 season, with a large chunk of the rotation returning for 2025 outside of Luis Ortiz, who was traded to Cleveland in the Spencer Horwitz trade.
That includes left-hander Bailey Falter, who prior to the 2024 season was a popular castaway amongst the fanbase after a 2023 campaign that saw Falter post a 5.58 ERA in seven starts and 10 appearances after his arrival via the Rodolfo Castro trade with Philadelphia prior to the 2023 trade deadline, but Falter silenced some doubters after 2024.
With the arrivals of Jared Jones and Paul Skenes looming, Falter had to prove himself worthy of a rotation spot, and he did just that, posting a 4.43 ERA across 28 starts and 142.1 IP, becoming the Pirates go-to southpaw in the rotation, a spot that has been consistently sought by general manager since his tenure began with additions such as Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana and Rich Hill.
Falter added much needed consistency as a left-hander, as he posted a sub-3.00 ERA in both April(2.89) and May(2.23), some of the best months of Falter’s career. Following those months though, Falter’s play took a considerable nose dive, as he failed to have a sub-4.00 ERA in any other month of the season.
Our own Michael Castrignano highlighted these struggles throughout his piece on Falter a few weeks ago, most importantly his low strikeout rate,
Did I say low strikeout rate? It’s actually understating it. No one who pitched as many innings as Falter did in 2024 had a lower strikeout rate than he did… And strikeouts aren’t everything if you can limit walks and keep the ball on the ground – except Falter does neither of those well.
Michael hit the nail right on the head here. Falter, for all the good he achieved in 2024, his advanced numbers suggested quite the lucky season for the southpaw.
Falter’s xERA(4.81), xBA(.267), average exit velocity(90.1), whiff rate(19.6) and strikeout rate(16.5), were all in the 20th percentile or lower last season via StatCast, while his -8 pitching value and -9 breaking pitch run value suggest even worse numbers. It doesn’t take a genius to know that Falter never has, nor will be ever be, a plus-strikeout pitcher, but even his ground-ball rate(37.5), which is normally his forte, came in the 21st percentile last year.
So, where does this leave Falter in the mix for 2025? Well, for starters, he is currently the only left-handed starter on the big league roster, although offseason addition Caleb Ferguson may get a look in the starting rotation rather than the bullpen, so that alone gives Falter an edge as most staff’s prefer at least one left-hander, and having one in PNC Park proves very fruitful to put the icing on the cake.
The rotation will include Falter, at least at the beginning of the season, alongside Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller, and the jumble of pitchers that could take the fifth spot, more on that at a later date in a later piece, but treading lightly with Falter should be important, especially with youngsters like Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington all potentially gunning for the rotation in 2025.
That also doesn’t take Johan Oviedo’s return into account either, who had an impressive 2023 campaign before being sidelined with an injury for the entirety of last season. All of these factors are important for Falter, in due part because although his campaign was somewhat successful last year, a repeat may not be good enough to keep his spot in 2025.
Add in that Falter’s profile in the bullpen is dismal at best, and the plank becomes very much smaller for Falter, who will, and should, have a ton of pressure to produce in 2025.
The biggest goal for Falter should be performance at least somewhat comparable to his first two months that were mentioned earlier. Limiting walks played a massive role in that success, as Falter’s 13 free passes combined in April and May were just a fraction above his July and September totals of 10 and 13.
With the strikeout upside limited, Falter cannot afford to give up free bases, and with the fastball velocity not grand, but deceptive thanks to his impressive extension, there is a world where Falter plays good baseball, he just has to do it consistently, especially with the wolves ready to strike from AAA and returning players.
Expect a heavy dose of Falter in the early months, but after, his play will, and should, determine his fate, and with potentially better options available via the prospect pool, especially in a massive year for the organization, don’t be surprised if the leash is short for Falter in 2025.
Now, that doesn’t mean root against him, because he proved plenty of doubters wrong last year, its just a wonder if the advanced analytics allow him to do it for a second straight year.
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