2-11-2025 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X
Pirates fans are all familiar with Termarr Johnson. Johnson was a very high-profile prep player
for several years and the Bucs called his name at the podium with the 4th overall selection in 2022. The organization and fans alike expected great things from the youngster right out of the gate. Now with two full years in the system, things have not gone entirely to plan.
What has happened? Heralded at draft time for possessing an extremely advanced hit tool,
what we have seen thus far is a different type of profile altogether.
I do not think that pointing this out is either controversial or even a bad thing. There is plenty to like still. Maybe Johnson does not ever live up to such lofty hit tool grades that were once placed upon him, but there are multiple paths to production in baseball.
Path to Success?
Across most prospect ranking sites, Johnson’s stock has tumbled due to his profile making a
sharp turn. He is not the advanced hit tool prep most evaluators expected but instead he is
something a little different. To date his performance is more akin to a moderate to lower batting average, high OBP, slugging keystone instead. I want you to envision a player like a kind of Max Muncy-lite profile. Albeit with less over the fence power and greater athleticism mixed in.
In 2024 Termarr put forth the following A+ key stats:
Triple slash: .238/.372/.385
ISO: .147
wRC+: 123
wOBA: .359
xDamage: .364
GB%: 44.8%
Followed by his ending stint in AA Altoona:
Triple slash: .229/.316/.396
ISO: .167
wRC+: 98
wOBA: .316
xDamage: .311
GB%: 51.3%
The numbers are disappointing, there is no way around it. But there are also extremely
encouraging factors working in his favor. One being his age. He will not turn 21 until mid-season in 2025. All of his age 20-21 season will be spent in the upper minors and he will be several years young for the level(s). All things considered that is a huge positive. The other most encouraging point is that Johnson has an extremely strong grasp of the strike zone.
This one is important. It helps to set up a solid floor, while at the same time laying the groundwork for a higher level of performance to stack on top.
Granted, A+ & AA are not the Major Leagues, but Termarr has consistently posted lower chase
rates than the MLB-average. Pairing this with a near MLB-average (82%) zone contact % in AA (77.8) and we see a very young player with an advanced understanding of the zone. If we take this information to heart and then look back above at the middling-to-underwhelming xDamage and his propensity to put the ball on the ground too often, perhaps we can see what the focus may be for 2025.
As a brief aside here; xDamage (otherwise known as xwOBACON) measures a hitters ability to produce on balls in play. When you see folks discussing Quality of Contact (QoC) this is often what they are referring to. It looks at a variety of factors such as Launch Angle & Exit Velocity of batted balls. There is more to it than this but simply put; high quality QoC combines higher exit velocities with optimal launch angles. Such contact typically equates to higher batting averages and/or slugging percentages.
Whether it is a matter of optimizing pitch selection & attacking “better” pitches within the zone or tweaking the swing/attack angles, getting the most out of Termarr’s QoC could catapult him back into the tier of highly esteemed prospects in short order. Anyone who watches Johnson can see the obvious quickness of his hands. The potential is there. Can the player and the organization work toward maximizing the QoC? Time will tell. Personally, I am betting on them being up to the task.
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