2-17-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
You know, something struck me in the first week of Spring Training and it’s insanely obvious.
All of the stuff we’ve argued about over the offseason. All the disappointment in who they got, who they didn’t, who they won’t. Well, in one image I just couldn’t bring myself to think of anything else. Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller throwing side by side by side.
And I don’t even think Bubba is going to break camp with the team.
Stick with me for a minute here, because it’s not just about who breaks camp, it’s about the shear amount of and quality of starting pitching talent this team has at the moment.
I saw that picture, and froze.
Struggling to remember the last time I honestly thought the Pirates had 5 solid starting pitchers. 2013 maybe? I mean 2014 they had Vance Worley start 17 games. 2015, maybe at the end after they got J.A. Happ?
Even then, we’re talking about just 5 that I feel good about.
This year the Pirates have Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, Johan Oviedo, Bubba Chandler and at least 4 others who in just about any other year would be considered at least a good shot at a prospect who’d turn out.
We don’t know if they can all stay healthy. we don’t know how they’ll all perform, hell we don’t even know which 5 they’ll start with, but I’ll tell you one absolute fact that we should all really embrace…
There is absolutely no path to winning in a small market unless you build and develop affordable, top end pitching, and do so much of it you can afford to replace guys with younger models rather than paying them big paydays.
You can turn that into a Bob discussion, or just accept it as a reality of the MLB financial structure, but you can’t deny a market like this absolutely has to have it.
Yes, there’s another side of the game. Yes, they’re behind there.
I’m just saying, if they had been successful on the other side and didn’t have the pitching, this franchise would be in a worse position both now and in the future than they currently are.
Your gut is going to reject this statement, but really think about it. Then go see what a 3rd or 4th starter costs in free agency.
I’m not saying they should schedule a parade. I’m just saying the one thing they absolutely can’t win without, they’ve secured, and built something that looks sustainable on that side of the ball.
1. But…But…Pitching is Currency Gary!
That intro paragraph probably sends many of you into the death spiral you’ve spent all offseason in. Why not trade some of that pitching depth for offensive talent then right?
Well, try to disassociate what I’m about to say with opinion. I’m not telling you what they should do, should have done, or will or won’t do. I’m just going to try to explain there are more ways to see pitching as currency than trading top ranked prospects for parts and pieces.
Let’s take Mitch Keller for instance. Mitch is signed through 2028 his age 32 season, and he’ll be making over 20 million per season by the time he gets there. If Mitch simply holds serve, maybe gets a bit more consistent, the Pirates probably hope that they have Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco, Johan Oviedo and Bubba Chandler rolling by then. Mitch would be a guy who could be dealt after say 2026 or 2027 both to make room and to restock the system.
Not only would they likely not want to pay him over 20 million, they certainly don’t want to have him walk for nothing. More importantly than anything, they simply might not consider him to be sure fire one of their best 3-4 starting pitchers.
Now, by this area of the timeline, good chance Jared Jones and Paul Skenes are minimally starting to cost something in Arbitration too, so the natural payroll bloat will be in full effect. Heck, Oneil Cruz by then will be in year 2 or 3 of arbitration, do I need to tell you what that might cost if he hits 25-30 dingers for the next couple years?
Did you notice I didn’t mention Bailey Falter? Well, he’s a free agent in 2029, and while I don’t see the Pirates extending him, he just got 2.2 million in his first year of arbitration eligibility, he has 3 more. If he continues to perform, he’ll get 10-15 million by the end of this string. Highly likely he is traded before we get there, yes, because he costs money, but also because younger, higher pedigree kids are replacing him cheaper with more upside. All that supposes he continues to perform of course which is absolutely not a guarantee. Point is, if he’s here in 2028 I’ll eat my hat.
None of this means you can’t sell off a Harrington, or Barco, or even Oviedo at some point here for offensive help, but if you do too much of it, or pick the wrong guys when you do, you wind up standing there in 2028 realizing you can’t deal Keller, cause you need him now.
Again, as an example.
The Pirates do fear risk, more than they should in my mind, but there’s a reason they don’t look at all this pitching and think they have a boatload of expendable assets. Like I said in the intro today, there is zero possibility to win in this market without homegrown, controllable, high-end pitching talent on a conveyer belt.
I’ve said this before, and it certainly doesn’t mean it’ll work or that he’s the right guy to do it, but Ben Cherington is not trying for a “window” he’s trying for a self sustaining system.
Win or Lose.
The Brewers have done this for years. Burnes and Williams as the latest examples. Again, their hope is Peralta becomes their new “ace” and some of their prospects who just started emerging become the next core of starters. They trade them for prospect help and restock the team. The machine keeps operating.
That’s the dream, executed well it can work. They’re closer to a setup that could actually create this in Pittsburgh than I’ve ever seen.
2. Liover Peguero Diversifies His Skill Set
Liover Peguero is 24 years old. I know, feels like he should be like 27 for how long we’ve been talking about him right?
He has 1 option left, meaning one more season in which the Pirates can send him to AAA and keep him on the 40-man roster.
In an effort to increase his opportunity to make it and stick, Liover has started working out at First Base, as well as Third.
It’s noteworthy if only because should his bat play, he’s opening a door for options he previously didn’t have, like filling in for an injured first baseman to open the season maybe? Backing up positions like Jared Triolo has in case he’s asked to lock in somewhere. I know Pirates fans traditionally hate the phrase “positional flexibility” but when you’re a borderline AAA prospect, it’s imperative you prove you don’t need the perfect storm of happenings to get the call.
Bottom line with Peggy, he needs to hit. There are a lot of expected members of this 26-man roster come April, but it’s awful hard to pretend it’s all locked up when the offense was so putrid last year. Anyone in theory who hits could really push them into a decision, some like Peguero probably have an easier path to this reality than others. 4 years is a long time to survive a 40-man with very little MLB impact or opportunity.
Decisions will be made, Peguero is just trying to make them at the very least a bit harder.
3. Can Braxton Ashcraft Take a Spot?
Listen, the Pirates very much so have a slot open for their 5th spot in the rotation. Meaning, they need 5 and have 4 locked in. Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Bailey Falter and a host of kids fighting it out for the last spot to break camp.
In order of plausibility before one pitch is thrown in anger this offseason…
Johan Oviedo – Returning from UCL surgery and staring down the barrel at a season of having his innings restricted big time. He might start out the gate, but physically he can’t all year. One way or another.
Mike Burrows – Polished is the best way I can describe Mike. He was just about ready back in 2022 when he had his procedure and clawed all the way back last season in the minors. Now at 25 years old, Burrows is looking to follow his cup of coffee with a strong Spring and a ticket to the show.
Braxton Ashcraft – Oft injured over the years, this kid is a specimen to see on the mound. Velocity for days, and easy velocity with command all wrapped in a 25 year old body. He was arguably the third most impressive pitcher in camp last year behind Skenes and Jones, and he’s still right there although our next entry has caught up if not surpassed him. He also discovered some mechanical changes this offseason that should help keep him healthier.
Bubba Chandler – Looks like a stud. If I hadn’t just watched Paul Skenes do what he did, well, I’d be acting like I did last year watching him do just about anything. But he’s not on the 40-man, and those spots are valuable. He also has almost no AAA experience to speak of, not that anyone at that level is going to test him much. He’ll be hard to prevent from being called up in 2025 if healthy.
Thomas Harrington – Everything I said about Bubba, but less visually dominant. Note, visually, because his stuff gets outs, and he does it with elite command. He’s just not gonna put you on your ass with a fastball, or more accurately, doesn’t need to.
For shear stuff alone, there aren’t many built like Braxton Ashcraft. The urge to move him to the bullpen by fans may one day be the case, but it’s also in part based on how much time he’s lost to injury over the years, not his ability to get outs or go through a lineup multiple times. He absolutely has what it takes to both be in this conversation and to win it.
As we’ve already discussed today in the vast majority of this piece, there aren’t too many years in Pirates history where this kid would be almost an afterthought.
4. Injury Gate – The Horwitz Scandal
LOL, scandal.
I mean, that’s how it’s being treated anyway.
Listen, this isn’t hard. Spencer Horwitz had a wrist issue that cropped up periodically and didn’t keep him from playing in Toronto for any measurable time. He’d seen a doctor, the doctor filed a report, and both the Guardians and Pirates saw said report and both decided it was not enough to keep them from acquiring him.
After Pirates Fest, Horwitz ramped up his offseason progression toward Spring Training and injured a tendon in his thumb/wrist/hand. A different and unrelated injury.
The same exact doctor consulted and this time recommended surgery to repair the injury.
This repair is not to help the pre-existing issue, it’s to address the new injury only. That’s how unconcerned they are with the “chronic” injury he has been dealing with. So concerned they had him opened up and chose not to touch it. At least that’s how it’s been reported.
He’ll likely be back before Spring ends, but is much less likely to break camp with the club.
The Guardians and Blue Jays didn’t “fool” Cherington. He didn’t pull the trigger on a guy without doing his due diligence. A dude got hurt after being acquired, and the reason nobody is panicking is primarily because Horwitz wasn’t acquired with one year left on his deal so it’s 2025 or bust, he was acquired because they have control of him for 6 full seasons including this one and they think he can and will help.
This was primarily and typically for this franchise, a poor choice of words, amplified by a GM who simply can’t give clean answers.
Just like Endy getting hurt in the Dominican Winter League wasn’t their fault, this is just another instance of shitty luck. It sucks. It’s a setback for him and the team, but it’s not a season ender, nor is it going to cause them to panic and re-address first base.
You want to talk about an injury they caused? How about having Johan Oviedo throw 170 some innings in 2023. Before that season he’d never thrown more than 142 at any level and that was back in 2019. They pushed it, and he and they paid the price.
This is just something that happened.
Breathe.
5. Is There Really is Another Move Coming?
I’ll say this, I fully believe it’s their intention to do so.
I put it that way because when you enter Spring, let’s just say, things change.
For the Pirates, let’s say they had Braxton Ashcraft pegged as a movable piece, and as this thing goes on, they watch him pitch and practice for 3-4 weeks and now, well, maybe they aren’t so sure.
Maybe they want a Left Fielder to start over Pham, but as the Spring starts to play out, they convince themselves that Jack and Palacios are both decent bets to help?
We could also see players who aren’t available now become available as we get closer to the season. Teams like LA or Boston who have really stocked up on MLB talents, might now have some promising options that shake loose and suddenly they don’t need 2 of your top 100 prospects to get it done.
The Pirates could have someone like Isiah Kiner-Falefa suffer an injury and having no backup SS with much MLB experience they might panic and see if they can address it.
Maybe Bednar hurts himself again and they can’t envision entering the season with no defined closer.
None of this stuff is what they’re talking about when they say they’d like to add another player, but again, things change when your cleats fill with mud and grass.
They won’t and shouldn’t be closed off to many moves that make sense, neither should you. See a rumor that someone is getting squeezed out, assume the Pirates are a potential landing spot.
That’s likely how something like this would come together.
Steel City Pirates 