2-21-2025 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
I’m not going to bury the lede here, this is a really good signing for this ballclub.
A veteran lefty with a recent history of eating innings. This isn’t a typical Pirates reclamation project, this is a guy who’s just been a fairly consistent performer over his 11 years.
The 33 year old may have come cheap agreeing to 5.25 million but he adds proven meat to this rotation, and helps the team not force youngsters into action prematurely.
Last year, Andrew Heaney pitched for Texas, his second with the club and he handled 160 innings with a 4.28 ERA in 32 games all of which were starts save 1. A healthy 1.25 WHIP, 159 K’s against only 41 walks.
He won’t blow you away with the fastball, but his offspeed stuff is ranked in the 86th percentile in the game, and his walk rate in the 83rd percentile is pretty damn good as well.
Bottom line, this is a solid back end of the rotation pitcher and my goodness does he help the math.
A pitching staff has to cover 1,458 innings, give or take a few. I mean, that number is based on no extra innings, and having to pitch the 9th every single night which of course isn’t right, but it’s not all that far off and for the purposes of our conversation, let’s roll with it.
The Pirates had…
Paul Skenes – Wants to throw 240 innings, hard to believe they’ll let him.
Mitch Keller – Badly wanted 200 innings each of the last two seasons, hasn’t made it yet.
Jared Jones – 132.2 innings last year between MLB and his rehab innings in Indy.
Bailey Falter – 145.1 last year including his rehab outing.
Those are the 4 we knew would be there. We had a list of other guys who could like Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, and Johan Oviedo until the Pirates just about closed the door on that for opening day anyway, and, well, who knows right?
If I’m being generous, those 4 are maybe 740? If a whole hell of a lot goes great? I mean, I’m not giving Paul 240, I’m not sure they should try to get 200 out of Keller the way he’s finished each of the last two seasons, maybe less is more there ya know? I gave Jones a nice bump to around 160 and I gave Bailey the same.
So you add in Heaney with his 160 or so and now you’re talking about 900 innings potentially covered by your rotation.
Now, you add in the contributions of that list of guys as the season plays out and of course the bullpen and it looks a lot easier to get there then it did before the addition.
I’m not even touching how comfortable I am with Falter. Look, Bailey was pretty good last year, but let’s be truthful here, our expectations for him were so low entering 2024, it was incredibly easy to see him as a pleasant surprise all season long.
But compare his numbers to Heaney…
| 2025 | Bailey Falter | Andrew Heaney |
| Innings | 142.1 | 160 |
| ERA | 4.43 | 4.28 |
| WHIP | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| K’s | 97 | 159 |
| BB’s | 45 | 41 |
| Starts | 28 | 31 |
On paper, that looks like an upgrade. He’s older, he’s not under team control beyond this season like Bailey, but he’s got over 1,000 MLB innings under his belt has pitched on a World Series winner in 2023.
The kids will have their day. Injuries will happen, performance will make it impossible to ignore who belongs where, but if you have a chance to start the season feeling you can rely on all 5 of your starters before Spring even starts, you’ve done well, especially if they’re likely holding off more talented players.
It’s sexy to picture Bubba making the rotation and Ashcraft too, but the innings are a reality nobody can avoid. Almost everyone on that list of players I put up there who likely get pushed out of the competition now, well, they’ll all struggle to get to the 100-120 range at least in MLB this year. That math gets tough…
The Pirates just bought themselves some time and likely fewer grey hairs.
Steel City Pirates 