2-21-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
One of the players for whom fans have had the most up-and-down expectations and results over the past few years, Ke’Bryan Hayes has had some high highs and some low lows in his first five seasons in black and gold.
He surged to a stellar Covid-abbreviated 2020 before struggling through injuries and offensive ineffectiveness despite becoming one of the best defenders in baseball. As one of the biggest contracts in Pirates history, a lot is riding on his oft-injured back. Can he finally push past the criticism lobbed at him or continue catching flak as he continues to scuffle with the Bucs?
Hayes was drafted by the Pirates 32nd overall in the 2015 MLB Draft and steadily moved up the ranks in the minors with a solid .279/.354/.399 slash line over 1,991 plate appearances from 2015 to 2019. In that stretch, he won minor league Gold Gloves each of his last three years, showing early on that his biggest impact to the team would likely be via the glove-work.
When he debuted with the Pirates on September 1, 2020, Ke’ showed an unexpectedly strong affinity for offensive production, going 2-for-5 with a double and home run in his first game, scoring 3 runs and driving in a pair.
And he just didn’t stop.
Hayes played in 24 games in 2020 – all coming in September – and failed to record a hit in just 4 of those matches while reaching base in all but two games. In that time, Ke’ notched 14 extra base hits and posted a .376/.442/.682 slash line with a 194 wRC+ while playing ELITE defense as he was worth 4 Defensive Runs Saved over that short stretch, per Fielding Bible.
Fans proclaimed that Hayes should be Rookie of the Year – he finished 6th – but were highly anticipating what Ke’ would be able to produce over a 162-game stretch.
Unfortunately, Hayes was unable to maintain his whopping .450 BABIP from 2020 as he offense dropped to below average in 2021and 2022 as he posted a .249/.315/.356 line with an 86 wRC+ over 956 plate appearances through his first full major league seasons – missing two months in ’21 due to “wrist soreness” and spending another shorter stint on the IL in ’22 due to a “mild back strain.”
This would be a sign of things to come.
While Hayes signed his big contract (8 years/$70M, a then-record for the Pirates) heading into the 2022 season, it seemed that the team was relying on his glove to live up to the contract and if the bat came back around, it would just be a boost.
And 2023 started much the same way that his previous two seasons had gone as Hayes limped along with a 61 wRC+ through the first two months of the season with a .216/.270/.337 slash line. But then, something clicked. He had a 2-hit game on May 31 and continued from there, securing hits in 12 of the next 14 games.
He missed a few weeks in July due to “low back inflammation” but returned in August and picked up where he left off, hitting 13 home runs over his final 310 plate appearances and posting a 128 wRC+ and .867 OPS over that time as he went on to finally wrest the 3B Gold Glove from Nolan Arenado.
Was this it? Had Ke’ finally arrived?
Well, he once again benefited from a lofty BABIP (only .359 this time) but was hitting the ball harder than ever (91.9 average exit velocity) with a HardHit% of 49.1% and Barrel rate of 8.3% from 5/31 through the end of the year.
It was certainly promising, and if Ke’ could stay healthy, he was now showing what he could do. Unfortunately, as Pirates fan luck often goes, it wouldn’t last.
Hayes dealt with lingering back issues into the 2024 season, spending multiple stretches on the IL as he played in just 96 games last year with career-worst marks across the board as he slashed just .233/.283/.290 with a 59 wRC+.
Despite the offensive issues, Hayes was still producing with the glove. In fact, even with missing significant time due to injuries over the past few years, Hayes has been the best defender in MLB since his debut in 2020. Actually, I’ll do you one better: Go back to 2019 – a year in which Hayes spent zero innings on a major league roster – he still leads the pack by 6 or more Total Runs Saved.
Heading into this spring, Ke’ has revamped his swing, switching from a one-handed follow-through to a two-handed one designed to put less strain on his lower back. He has reportedly been working on changing nearly every aspect of his life in order to reduce stress on his lower back and hopefully ensure he keeps it healthy enough to play through a full season.
Reports out of camp are that Ke’ looks much happier and healthier than he did last year – and even if that is a cliché, it’s a lot better than the alternative.
Is it going to work? If he’s healthy, he’s shown he can be among the best in baseball. If he’s not, he’s shown he can be among the worst.
Which one are we going to get this year?
I don’t know. Consult a Magic 8 Ball and you tell me.
Steel City Pirates 