By now I’m sure you’ve heard that the Pirates aren’t “on the doorstep of anything”?
Not to defend General Manager Ben Cherington here (in and of itself that quote looks pretty bad) but come on. Context matters and in context this quote was pretty innocuous.
The context? In case you missed it, Dejan Kovacevic, creator of DK on Sports put out a report where he says that “multiple sources” have told him that the Pirates “main move” is yet to come. He also reports that payroll and the roster won’t stay the same.
What does all of this mean? I have zero clues on that and DK gives no hints to help us out. And as the quote above says, the Bucs are not “on the doorstep of anything” that has been rumored by the insiders.
Let’s put aside the idea of a free agent deal, since it’s not really the kind of thing I write about here. Not to mention the only viable free agent that’s an upgrade in any way is OF Alex Verdugo. My personal opinion holds no weight to an organization who doesn’t even know I exist, but I’ll give it anyway: Vedugo might be an improvement, but he ain’t moving the needle.
Trades, though? Yeah, I love those! So let’s take a look at a few options for the Pittsburgh Ball Club.
A few notes here:
-I have no sources, so please don’t take this as a rumor.
-I have no clue if any of these guys will even be available.
Let’s start with the obvious-Chicago White Sox
Luis Robert Jr- MLB (SV $20-53M)
There are reports that a few teams have reached out to the White Sox for Robert Jr and that the Sox asking price is too high.
One report suggested they asked the Cincinnati Reds for three of their top prospects, while another reported that SS Edwin Arroyo (once a universal top prospect and still highly regarded) was a potential piece headed back(per Rosenthal). Another sticking point in the deal falling apart is how much money the CWS would retain in moving Robert Jr per that same report.
Coming together on a deal for Robert isn’t going to be easy. Why?
Let’s start with that surplus value range up top. $20-53M is a pretty large range, so how did I get to that? Over the next three seasons Luis is set to make $55M. Zips has him projected at a WAR of 2.7 and if we use that and lock it in over the next three years we land at a surplus of $20M. CHW would like to aim higher and I can’t say I blame them. Once a rising star who had a fWAR of 4.9 at the age of 25, Robert has the talent and skill to be one of the game’s best. In the 2020 shortened season, his fWAR was 1.4. The following season he hit 3.5 fWAR in 68 games. The dude can play when healthy; the trouble is he hasn’t stayed healthy. 145 games is the most he’s played in any given season. And there’s a hefty drop to 100 games, the second most he’s played in a season. (A reminder of the formula we use for trades.)
So why would the CWS look to get more in a deal for him? Simply put, Luis Robert Jr is in fact the biggest needle mover the Bucs, or any team, could add in a trade right now, so seeking a return for a 4 fWAR per season player (or $53M in SV) makes sense and so far no team has been able to meet in the middle with Chicago’s General Manager Chris Getz. Let’s take a stab-
Pirates get-
Luis Robert Jr- OF MLB (SV $20-53M) and retains all the salary a sticking point in the negotiations with the Reds.
White Sox get-
Choice of
Thomas Harington or Braxton Ashcraft- SP- ETA 2025: FV 50(SV $21M)
The Bucs would really like to retain both of these arms as both look like high floor starters that could jump right into the Bucs starting rotation as early as opening day. Both have the stuff to be a #3 type starter and the floor of a #5 or bullpen arm.
Liover Peguero-SS/2B-MLB (?)
ZiPs actually has Peggy’s projection at 1.2 fWAR in 129 games for 2025. Full disclosure from someone who is a Peggy truther(me), that number surprises me. And being controlled thru 2030 would net a decent surplus close to the $20M range. Peggy offers SS/2B/3B and has been doing some glove work in the OF in spring training.
The White Sox interest in Arroyo makes this an easy jump and yes, I get that Peggy is older and at this point less projectable. He’s also flashed some power in the majors hitting 7 HR in 63 games. That could demand some attention from the White Sox GM.
Jack Suwinski-OF-MLB (SV ?)
Depending on where you sit on Suwinski will determine if you like the inclusion of him in a deal. Another guy who’s ZiPS projection of 1.7 is a tad surprising to me. And adding up 4 yrs of control at 1.7 fWAR would be a solid number. The power Jack has in his boomstick is still attractive and perhaps the guy can tap into more regularly as a hometown hero in Chicago.
If you’re a White Sox fan, you’re hating this package. I don’t blame you, but this is the trouble with putting together a package for Robert. Robert drips talent but if you’re a GM looking to add Robert Jr those injuries are troubling to say the least. You need to hedge your bets against him missing chunks of time.
Getz will have to weigh that as well. If Robert misses anytime this year, it will sink what value he has. And even IF he is having a 4 fWAR type season, how much value will that carry at the July 31st Trade Deadline(July 31st is a Thursday so that should be the date)? It’d put that SV at about $36M, not all that far from the SV above.
I can see teams still being weary of a potential injury and still wanting a bit of a discount. This is the guy they should be looking at but I’m not sure how comfortable they’d be giving more than a package like this. Termarr Johnson? Or perhaps a pot sweetener like Tony Blanco Jr OF–FV 35+?
Let’s move on…Baltimore
Heston Kjerstad-OF-MLB (SV upwards of $90M)
Heston has the power to be special and a promising wRC+ of 116 in his first 39 games as a major leaguer. This will be expensive. Extremely expensive.
O’s get-
Mitch Keller-SP- (SV $15M)
I don’t think the Bucs will move Keller but I also imagine that Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler are off limits. I think the Orioles will prioritize a proven arm. Keller is affordable. He’s reliable. And he can anchor the middle art of a rotation.
Termarr Johnosn-2B-ETA:2027(SV $28M)
Kids power is developing so I imagine that 50 FV is still attached by many managers.
OK, I’m gonna stop here as the Bucs would still need to add…a lot. Like both Harrington and Ashcraft to that deal. This is just off the table even for a dreamer like me. That said, can the O’s interest GM in a swap of Keller for Cedric Mullins? ZiPS has him at a 2.8 fWAR with a wRC+ of 104. I’m a pass but I like him over Tommy Pham, just sayin’.
How about Jud Fabian? After hitting in AA (.233/.326/.432 wRC+ 117 with 18 HR) in 2024 the jump to AAA saw him struggle. His wRC+ dropped to 96. Still, if the Bucs scouts are on board this could be an option. The O’s and the Bucs are a fit for a deal and I think worth keeping an eye on.
Let’s Pivot to the Los Angeles dodgers.
Pipedream?
Bucs get-
Andy Pages-OF-MLB (SV upwards of $90M)
This is my guy. I’ve long loved Andy Pages. The good news? LAD could very well start him in AAA due to the roster. The bad news, it won’t ruin his surplus value.
But wait, there is something that could help the Bucs out here.
Bucs add-
Chris Taylor-3B/OF/2B even SS (SV -$9M)
Bucs take Taylor and his $13M payday. I don’t care what they do with him. Keep him. Eat money and flip him to another team. Doesn’t matter, if they can ease the pain here to land Pages? You’d have to do it.
LAD get-
Termarr Johnson-2B-ETA:2027(SV $28M)
Thomas Harrington-SP-ETA:2025 ($21M)
Yes LAD has Tony Gonsilin, who will be 30? Dude seems to have been around forever and never at the same time. He just hasn’t been able to really establish himself due to injuries, 130 innings being the most he’s put together.
LAD has a long list of guys who have recently had TJS. Emmit Shehan, River Ryan and Gavin Stone all succumbed to Mr. Tommy John’s knife last year and likely none will be there to make an impact this season due to how late their procedure was last year.
This leaves Bobby Miller and Landon Knack as the next man up. Knack profiles to the bullpen and I think that’s where he ends up. Miller was supposed to be the next big time starter for the Dodgers. But in 56 innings his stuff hasn’t translated. In fact, he’s been smacked around a good deal. (ERA north of 8). By no means is he a guy you give up on but adding another 50 FV starter ready to make the jump? I’m sure that would be something that LAD would like to have sitting around.
Jack Suwinski-OF-MLB See above
Taking Pages would leave a void and I can see LAD being interested in the power profile, hey why not.
Yordany De Los Santos-SS-ETA:2027 FV 45(SV $6M)
This would be more than a sweetener to the deal. Think the Oneil Cruz deal. DLS has a ton of untapped potential.
In the end I doubt LAD would take this deal but I do wonder how close it comes. After being rejected the Bucs could turn their attention to James Outman. James is two years removed from a 4 WAR campaign but at 27 years old I’d call him a change of scene candidate. Not the ideal ad but one I can see GMBC having interest in.
One more… Off to Boston
Wilyer Abreu-OF-MLB (SV $78M)
Coming off a 3.1 WAR rookie season it’s possible the Red Sox will look north of that $78M surplus. But ZiPS has him at 2.4 WAR in his sophomore campaign. Can we make sense of this?
Boston gets-
Henry Davis or Endy Rodriguez-C-MLB
Believe it or not, ZiPS has Davis projected to have a solid 1.5 WAR campaign. Five years of 1.5 ball adds up to a decent surplus. And Endy? He comes in at a 1.9 projection with the same amount of control. His value will come in a little higher than Oh Henry’s.
Boston C’s situation isn’t great. The everyday guy is Connor Wong. The back is Carlos Narvaez. Their projected wRC+ is 81 and 94. Upgrading their C situation would be a major boost to their playoff hopes.
Don’t get me wrong, no team is viewing these guys at a $40M SV right now. Let’s cut in half, $20M surplus value.
Braxton Ashcraft or Thomas Harrington-SP-ETA:2025 FV 50 ($21M)
The Sox did a nice job of upgrading their rotation this offseason. Finishing with a top arm ready to make the jump would be a good way to finish the job. Not to mention the “next man up” is one Quinn Priester, either starter here is an upgrade over QP.
Termarr Johnson-SP-ETA:2027 FV 50(SV $28M)
TJ is a common thread for any of the controllable quality upgrades. (As is one of Ashcraft/Harrington).
Is this enough? I think upgrading C and a controllable arm could be close.
Not enough for Boston? How about gambling on
Marcello Mayer-SS-ETA: 2025 FV 50(SV $28M)
The Pirates passed on Mayer in the 2021 draft opting to take Henry Davis at 1:1. This allowed them to take and sign Bubba Chandler(a notable win for GMBC). Mayer was long considered the big prize of that draft so I would think the front office is well informed of his skill and growth. He struggled in AA in 23 but rebounded in 24. Carrying a strong .307/.370/.480 wRC+ of 142 slash line has right back on track.
Set to debut in 2025(if all goes right) so why would Boston consider moving the SS? Kristian Campbell has passed him in the pecking order by a good mile. I can see a package of Davis or Endy headed back with one of the AAA arms being close to getting it done. If not, keep tweaking it until it’s done.
This piece referred to right field, so I apologize for veering off course but SS is another area the Bucs could address, no offense Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
How’s about…
Washington Nationals
Robert Hassell III-OF- ETA:2025 FV 35+ (SV $1M)
Once a huge prospect but has slipped as of late. Big gamble with a possible big payoff.
Houston Astros
Pedro Leon-OF-Debuted- FV 35+ (SV $1M)
The power is there for Pedro, but so are some swing and miss concerns.
The cost for these two will be… how should I put this? In the aisle that Cherington likes to shop in.
Wrap it up
Fans want a “big move” here. And believe me, I get it. I’ve covered a few of the names we’ve seen thrown around this offseason and one thing should be abundantly clear: landing a big controllable name is not cheap. When Joe Boyd and I started putting together ‘Two Guys Talkin’ Trades’ all of those years ago (when we were young and innocent) the Pirates were entering a rebuild.
One of the earlier pieces we attacked was moving Bryan Reynolds when Reynolds had 4+ years of control. Take a look at that piece. Then see if you can put together that kind of package for a Heston Kjerstad. Ask yourself if the minor league system GMBC built can sustain giving up prime real estate for Andy Pages.
When DK put his report out there he didn’t specify if the “main move” would end up being a trade or a free agent. I very much imagine that deep throat wasn’t willing or cleared to give up that much intel. A need to know basis only, ya dig?
But when it comes to these trades it’s never the names we hope it will be. It’s almost never the obvious trade rumor that dropped a week ago. More often than not it’s a Nick Yorke for a Quinn Priester. And that’s ok; there can still be a win in that kind of package.
Here’s to hoping that GMBC finally makes a notable move. That the move is good enough to truly make this lineup better. Most likely won’t be the hero we want, but I hope it’s the hero we need. The fans of this ball club deserve it.
Mr. Ben, it’s time to finally be on that doorstep to…somewhere.
Steel City Pirates 