2-28-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
As the rebuild has progressed for the Pirates, there have been less and less real “battles” in Spring Training. Sure, a utility role or a 4th outfielder consistently has competition but the team, despite however you may feel about it, have started nailing down specific players at specific points.
One of the more intriguing competitions down in Bradenton lies behind the plate. Joey Bart had a breakout season in 2024 after coming over from the San Francisco Giants and has the inside track for the starting job but behind him?
Endy Rodriguez is coming back from Tommy John Surgery and the team appears to be slow-walking him back into games. Jason Delay, a serviceable backup catcher defensively but hasn’t really shown much with the bat at any level in professional ball. And finally, trying to finally break out in the same way Bart did last season, former 2021 first overall pick, Henry Davis.
I wrote in Spring Training last year about how Davis had been working with a number of the Pirates top prospects over the winter, taking on a leadership role by force as he thrust himself forward to become the best version of himself possible.
While he had an exciting Spring in 2024, batting .310 with a 1.067 OPS through his 16 games played, that didn’t exactly translate into the regular season as he batted a paltry .144 with a .454 OPS in his 37 games played.
This falls WELL short of expectations associated when you take a guy first overall in a draft class.
Let’s turn things back: The Pirates don’t exactly have the best track record when they’ve selected 1:1. Sure, Paul Skenes wrapped up one of the best rookie pitching seasons in MLB history and Gerrit Cole – while not really excelling until after leaving Pittsburgh – has certainly proven his stock over his professional career.
But prior to Cole? Bryan Bullington, picked first overall in 2002, and his career 5.62 ERA over just 81.2 MLB innings – most of which came after he left Pittsburgh. Kris Benson was selected 1:1 in 1996 and ended up with a serviceable career as he pitched parts of 9 seasons in MLB but a 4.26 ERA through 1,243 innings with the Bucs were not what you hope for from a first overall selection.
And finally, going back to 1986, having the bad luck to have the 1-1 a year before Ken Griffey Jr. signed to Seattle, the Pirates took Jeff King with the top pick who, wasn’t terrible overall – even posting a 30+ home run campaign for Pittsburgh in 1996 – but was mostly middling over his nearly 10-year MLB career as he posted a 99 OPS+ through his 8 years in black and gold.
So the bar seems fairly low for the 2021 first overall pick but, so far, he has fallen EXTREMELY short.
This is a graph of every first overall pick in MLB history by bWAR. You’ll see some recognizable names at the top in Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones and the aforementioned Griffey – and Skenes is already ranked 34 out of 60 picks in just one season – but at the tail end, just behind the twice-picked, all-time bust Danny Goodwin, sits the one and only Henry Davis at -2.0.
So can Davis turn tides and become something other than the statistically WORST 1:1 of all time?
Maybe?
When he had his ascendent spring, many were cautious with taking numbers at face-value given the unpredictable winds at LECOM Park as well as opposing pitchers mostly ramping up and not necessarily trying to beat-down hitters.
You have to take these stats with a grain of salt. Sometimes, you’re facing ace-level pitchers ramping up for the season and sometimes, you’re facing some NRI guy who isn’t going to be pitching professionally within a few months.
That said, the intangibles do look better this spring. He reportedly spent this past offseason training by himself to try and reset from what he has been doing wrong. And, so far, he doesn’t appear to be pressing as much. He looks more comfortable overall.
Last year, he was coming off a season where he was a positional nomad trying to break in at the major league level which resulted in a seismic shift in weight where he reportedly lost 15 pounds rapidly to play outfield only to put weight back on over the winter to bulk up for catcher.
He’s also appeared to be changing up some mechanics in his swing to try getting better at timing up fastballs, against which he batted .123 in 2023 with a whiff rate of 33.8%. We’ve seen results of this early on in camp as he is hitting the ball to right field, something he rarely did in 2023 as he mostly tried to pull the ball.
Behind the dish, his defense is developing as well. He gunned down a would-be base-stealer in his first game catching this spring. He likely won’t be an elite receiver but his pop time and arm strength are both among the best in MLB.
He’s a work-in-progress and admittedly put too much pressure on himself to be doing too much too soon. But if he can get close to the pedigree that he showed to get picked 1:1, something close to the career .944 OPS he’s posted in the minors, he might just get his name a bit higher on that chart sooner than later.
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