Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Can the Pirates get lucky?

3-17-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s St. Patty’s Day, and aside from being my cat’s birthday, a fun holiday that tends to bring everyone not on the set of Boondock Saints together.

It’s also got a theme of luck running through the entire premise, and honestly, the Pirates could use some.

It’s one thing to have your 1:1 stud pitcher come to the league and act as such, it’s another thing entirely to have some dude you picked up in the 5th round make it and thrive. That takes some luck.

The NL Central this year is muddy. The Cubs on paper should win, the Brewers now own the Devil magic the Cardinals used to have sole possession of. The Reds brought in a legendary coach, and the Pirates, well, they decided largely to just keep growing at their own pace.

Bucs have the best rotation on paper, Cubs have the best offense, but all in all, we could see a spread of 10 games from top to bottom if everyone competes to their ability.

The Pirates need luck, and I don’t mean like how the ball bounces, although that never hurts, but they need to get unexpected offense from unexpected sources. They need a guy like Jack to hit 25 bombs after being almost completely written out of the plan. They need a guy like Henry to look a lot more like a 1:1 and tap into some of his own power.

Let’s dig in today as we start winding down Spring Training and ramp up into the 2025 campaign.

1. Weak to Strong?

The Pirates have done what they do.

They brought in low level free agents, either looking for a bounce back, or to keep the performance right where it’s been. Guys who will prevent younger players from making the team, but unless they severely change course, guys who are almost set up to provide weak resistance to said youngsters catching and passing them as the season goes on.

In my mind, this team regardless of any theoretical deals at the deadline will get stronger as the year goes on.

I see guys like Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, Thomas Harrington, Nick Yorke, Billy Cook, Ji Hwan Bae, and more, starting in AAA. Maybe I missed one here, someone like Bae could certainly earn his shot out of Spring, but my assumption is that the team largely takes the chalk route and there are very few if any controversial choices.

As the season plays out, my hope would be we see guys like Adam Frazier, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Tommy Pham, Andrew Heaney, get surpassed and add these names to the block. That would mean both that they played well enough to have value, and that the kids played well enough to still push them aside.

That’s best case scenario of course. Injury could create opportunity, so could overt sucking. Regardless, the better talent being held back, can’t last and this team should be stronger in August than they are in April.

Health of course assumed.

2. Can We Stop Creating a “Problem”?

Since it became clear that Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis were both catchers and both had interesting bats, fans have tried their damnedest to make this the existential question of what’s coming.

Then they went ahead and added Joey Bart who decided he was going to hit like the top prospect he used to be back when people were asking what they’d do with Buster and Bart together.

Since 2023 I’ve said the same thing. When it’s a legitimate problem, I’ll spend time thinking about it.

Last year, Henry collapsed offensively and Endy missed the entire season with TJ surgery. Bart came in and excelled offensively.

This year, it looks like all 3 could contribute offensively, but it’s still not an in your face issue. Bart has done more than enough to be the opening day starter. Henry has taken some positive steps, but he’s still unproven. Endy is recovered, but has very few at bats under his belt to assume he’ll jump right back to MLB.

If there is a point where all 3 are in the league together, one or two of them will play somewhere else. Bart could DH, Endy could DH, play 1B or maybe even outfield.

I’d just like to pause here. Think about what it would mean for this team to have 2 bats you know you aren’t counting on suddenly show up and look indispensable. Think about what these 3 being bats you have to have in the lineup would do to this lineup.

Yeah, you have to push aside where they play. They won’t all catch. But, if this happens, folks, it’s anything but a problem.

This isn’t a problem until this team is so stacked, so filled to the gills with hitters, so stocked at every position these guys could conceivably play that you’re forced to either let one rot or trade them to loosen things up.

Even then, Joey Bart is 28 years old. He has 2 more years of arbitration. Meaning, unless the Pirates were to extend Bart, he likely has 1 or 2 more years here in Pittsburgh.

Which also means you might need Henry and Endy just for catcher right?

This is all a theoretical “battle”, it’s like doing particle research in a beamline. You know what you think you could see, but the likelihood of actually seeing that result, well, let’s just say it’s a finding you just hope you actually have one day.

Let it play out. And call me when it’s an actual problem, cause right now, it just isn’t.

3. First Base, Last Choice

The Pirates have the guy they see as the starting first baseman in 2025 in Spencer Horwitz. He’s hurt, but he’ll likely get in some games late in Spring and then head out to rehab the rest of the way in AAA.

So, when the Pirates make their choice for who is going to get the lion’s share of first base reps, there’s a very solid chance they want it to be someone they can move on from. They didn’t bring Horwitz in here to ride the pine for DJ Stewart for instance.

They have options. Nick Yorke, Billy Cook, Jared Triolo, Matt Gorski, don’t shoot the messenger but Adam Frazier, Jack Suwinski apparently, and yes, DJ Stewart.

Jack is a stretch to me, I’m not sure I see a move like this making sense unless his bat proves it has to be in the lineup. Frazier isn’t a good fit there, but he can and has played the position. Nick and Billy are right handed, and I’m not sure they’d see the at bats you’d like them to.

I’m leaning DJ Stewart. First, he’s seen a lot of playing time this Spring over there, he’d need a 40-man spot and if they want to move on as soon as Horwitz is ready, you’re out essentially an NRI. If he actually hits, hey, he can play OF too. Maybe even a left handed DH.

I’d take a shot here, long shot as it is.

I’d hate to use Yorke or Cook there and demote them to bring on Horwitz, it seems like it would almost set him up for angry fans who somehow can see Cook (26) as a prospect but Horwitz (27) as qualifying for AARP.

The Pirates need a patch here. So use a player perfectly suited to be one.

4. David Bednar….Reliever

I’m told that David Bednar will start the season as the closer of this team, but the leash will be much shorter this year.

That’s not to say David is the closer or he gets cut, it’s to say David will start as the closer and if he is shaky, the team will make a switch regardless of how apparent an alternative is.

Dennis Santana, Colin Holderman or maybe even newcomer Justin Lawrence have a shot to step in. I make no claim as to how successful they’d be, but there is a very real possibility that David Bednar winds up being a reliever they use like any other in which case 2025 is assuredly his last in Pittsburgh as there’s no chance they’ll give him another raise in arbitration.

Of course, he could also return to form and then it’ll be another tough decision. Do you take him to arb 3 or do you trade him off and get something back for him? I can’t see extending him, not at this point, maybe if he got here with far fewer hiccups, but not now.

Bednar will make 5.9 million this year. I’d just like to say, if the Pirates signed a reliever who has 84 career saves spanning a 5-6 year career and pay him 5.9 million to either close or simply add to bullpen depth, we’re probably pretty happy. So I’m not going to scrutinize what he makes, or assume it means he has to be a certain role on this club. It’s 6 million for a veteran reliever, one who has a lot of attractive career stats.

That’s the story.

Hometown guy stopped mattering when he became a guy you’d be foolish to extend. Yeah, it’s still there, but it won’t keep him in a role, or on this team longer term. As part of the bullpen mix, he’s welcome. As the locked on closer all season long regardless of what he does, yeah, I’m out.

Sounds like the Pirates agree.

5. Another Way to Augment…

There is something that happens when a franchise feels they’re getting close to being competitive we rarely discuss.

We rarely discuss it, because it’s rarely on the table.

Infusing top prospects into your effort.

Now, I’m not talking about the Bubba Chandler or Thomas Harrington types, those guys have already gone through the levels to get themselves on the doorstep and ready to contribute at some point this year. That stuff happens as course.

I’m talking more about recognizing what your team does and doesn’t have and taking away some of the norms on some of your more exciting youngsters regardless of where they are currently.

Impact bats and arms matter, and when your team is in a dogfight and trading for what you need is unappealing for one reason or another, you might see them consider pushing the gas on guys like Termarr Johnson, or Konnor Griffin.

Konnor making MLB this year is an insane idea, I get that, but that doesn’t mean the urgency to let him rise at his own pace should be dismissed. If he doesn’t need half a year in Bradenton, get him to Greensboro. If Greensboro doesn’t pose a challenge, see if you can get him to AA this year. From there, he’s a step away and you accelerate drastically his arrival.

Convention tells you to be careful with an 18 year old, and everyone’s Spidey sense would be going off like crazy, but to hold him back artificially is to cut into how long, if at all, he and Paul Skenes can be on the same team.

We’ve seen this already. The Pirates moved Henry Davis through the ranks partially because he was unchallenged, and partially because this team desperately needed a hitter. You can argue it hurt him and his development, but maybe that would have happened anyway, it’s not like AAA challenges him now either you know?

Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington themselves have flown through the system and put themselves in this position.

Ben Cherington is going to have to make a decision. Is it better to get what you can here as soon as possible, or is it better to hold some talent back, and hope they take the ball from this group and advance it forward.

Anyone in this organization that wants to look like they can help this club, in my mind, get out of the way and let them.

Again, this is a very difficult ask. Griffin is talented as hell, does not have the body or mind of an 18 year old, but he’s still got a lot of work to do, I’m just asking if it looks like he isn’t being challenged, challenge him. The standard marching orders that this needs to take 4-5 years to MLB ready an 18 year old should be challenged.

If the Pirates are waiting on Termarr Johnson to become a perfect player, well, don’t. Wait for a bat that you could use, challenge him, and don’t hesitate to add him to the mix if it makes sense.

The Pirates have for my entire life neglected to add significantly in free agency, they’ve also failed to make meaningful trades more than a handful of times. So what I’m asking is, you can’t buy power, can we allow it to make it up here to help when it shows itself?

Jack Brannigan is another interesting player. He’ll start in AA Altoona this year. He’s a slick fielding 3B who has hit for power since being drafted. The Pirates have Ke’Bryan Hayes who’s health is an issue. Jared Triolo who thus far can field the position but the bat has not warmed to the task.

I’d suggest if Hayes goes down again, Brannigan should be considered, even while they have Triolo. A team like this can’t settle for getting underwhelming offense in exchange for a solid glove.

I guess what I’m really saying here is, let the player tell you when he’s ready, not the timeline you went in with.

Again, we’ve seen this on the pitching side, and it’s time to have more urgency about getting more hitters here to match up with them.