3–29-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Securing win #1 on the season wasn’t easy as the luck went the Pirates way this time around but their opponent today has proven in his short MLB career that it’s better to be lucky than good.
Taking the ball for the Marlins today, Vallente Bellozo was initially signed by the Astros in 2017 as an international free agent, joining the Marlins via trade last April and making his MLB debut less than three months later.
Bellozo (pronounced “Bay-oh-zo”) posted a 3.67 ERA over 68.2 innings of work for Miami, starting 13 games with a 3-4 record.
On the surface, pretty good but the peripherals paint a less rosy picture.
Last season, no one who threw as many innings as Bellozo had a greater difference between their ERA and FIP, nor posted a higher xFIP than he did.
These calculations draw from a combination of factors but someone with a low strikeout rate (14.9%), high average exit velo (90 MPH), above average strand rate (85.9%) and below average BABIP (.254) can’t keep getting THAT lucky, right?
The Pirates actually faced – and bested – Bellozo on September 9th last year and while he doesn’t have overpowering stuff, he has been tinkering to get a different look for opposing hitters.
Results didn’t look good in the spring as Bellozo posted a 9.45 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 13.1 frames this month, though he did strike out 13 innings that stretch.
Alongside his revamped changeup, the 5’10 righty offers a high-80s 4-seam fastball, a low-80s cutter, a high-70s sweeper and a low-70s curve so the deception – if he can tunnel it – comes from the difference in velocity between those offerings.
If he’s not locating or mixing pitches well, it’ll be easier to hold on the heater upstairs or look to drive a hanging breaking ball.
Look for a specific pitch and be ready to pounce. Four runs was good enough yesterday but, as proven in Game 1, we aren’t always so lucky.
Steel City Pirates 