Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – NL Central Play Begins

4-7-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Vladimir Lenin is someone I’d never look to for advice, but he does have a quote that to me really sums up this start for the Pirates… “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

It’s been a hell of a start to the season.

1. What a Start it’s been

The Pirates struggled in Miami and Tampa, and we all expected their series with the Yankees to go a certain way. In other words, we were braced for what we saw. We were also braced for what some of the fans would bring to the stadium, and neither were pleasant.

Through 10 games the Pirates are 3-7, an obviously terrible mark, and there are 5 National League teams with 3 wins or less. The Nationals, Braves (worst record in baseball 1-8), Reds and the Rockies join our Buccos.

The 5-5 Brewers and the 3-7 Pirates have division worst -22 run differentials, in fact, these are league worst marks. At least in part, this comes from playing the Yankees who have an otherworldly +31, even the Dodgers aren’t close to that at +22.

The Reds and Cardinals both clock in at +1 and the Cubs are rocking a +21 with their 7-5 mark. And they had the pleasure of playing the Dodgers.

There’s actually a stat for expected wins and losses too and differential factors in heavily to the formula.

The Central right now goes…

Cubs 7-5
Brewers 5-5
Cardinals 4-5
Reds 3-7
Pirates 3-7

Reconfigure them by X-W/L and well,

Cubs 8-4
Cardinals 5-4
Reds 5-5
Brewers 3-7
Pirates 3-7

I only mention the expected numbers because it cuts through the noise of Bednar lost this, Holderman lost that and cuts right to the heart of shoulda, coulda, woulda. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to sub it for actual results, but this early on, it’s a quick way to see not only are these guys winning, but how comfortably.

This entire week will be against the NL Central, the Cardinals first at home, then onto Cincy for a weekend set.

The Reds start the week coming off 3 straight 1-0 losses, which, well you won’t see it again anytime soon you know? And before we see them, they have to play a series in San Francisco who are 8-1 and leading by percentage points the NL West whom they dropped 2 of 3 against to open the season. The Cardinals swept the Twins to start the season and have only won one game since.

This week will either further muddy the division, or it’ll cement someone as the basement dweller early on. Bigger week than you should ever feel like you have this early, but a 2-4 week and you start to feel like you need rope to ever climb again, especially with the division implications.

2. Tsung-Che Cheng Promoted to MLB

This comes as at least a bit of a surprise and is a direct result of Jared Triolo heading to the IL with lower back issues. For where Triolo is in his career, you lose a glove here, little more. Cheng won’t be able to step in and handle defense quite to the par Triolo has set, but at least based on what Triolo has done so far in 2025, there might just be offensive upside here, IF they let it play out.

Cheng had a tremendous Spring Training, and it means exactly that and nothing more. It’s incredibly difficult to cull any kind of information out of anyone who has been playing in Indianapolis because simply they haven’t played many games due to weather.

He’ll get opportunity to play, but most likely it’ll be to spell Ke’Bryan Hayes or fill in for Adam Frazier or IKF here and there and he brings a lot of the elements offensively that we prayed Ji-Hwan Bae might with more power potential, but this is the very beginning of his journey and frankly I’m at least a little surprised they went this way as opposed to Liover Peguero who already has some MLB time under his belt.

Probably speaks to how they feel about each player right now more than anything, but in many ways for Peguero, you have to ask, if not now, with Yorke, Gonzales and Triolo on the IL, well, when?

No matter what, this kid is either the Pirates #17 or #19 ranked prospect. He is fast, he’s a solid defender and he has offensive potential, but I’ve been watching him a long time, I’ve never seen him play the way he did in Spring Training, maybe his time in Greensboro comes close but he stalled in Altoona last year and earned a very late season call up so he’s been on their radar longer than most of us.

No matter what, welcome to the league kid, lets see what you got.

In my fever dreams, this is my leadoff hitter…

3. Mitch Keller Can’t be a Question

Mitch shoved in his first outing 6.0 innings 1 earned run and then not so much against the Yankees with 3.2 innings, 7 earned runs and a completely uncharacteristic 4 walks.

For the Pirates to get anything done this year, Mitch Keller needs to be every bit the veteran leader of this staff, and that will never come while he’s producing wildly different results game to game.

Yeah, it was the Yankees, and yes, they are hot as hell, but pitching is supposed to be the great equalizer, and when you build your entire path to victory on the backs of what is supposed to be an elite starting rotation, your number 2 better not be Jekyll and Hyde.

He doesn’t need to recreate his 3.91 ERA 2022 numbers, but he does need to get into the very low 4’s and stay there, or I’m sorry, there is no amount of anything this club could do that will get this thing on the rails.

The two lefty’s can shove, the stud ace Skenes can too, but if Keller underwhelms they’ll never function like the unit they purported to be.

He’s not a “bonus” guy. He needs to be a guy you expect a performance from. We’ve seen that in him as he’s evolved, we’ve also seen him surrender the “ace” helm at the mere sight of Mr. Skenes and have a rookie named Jones on an innings restriction plan and injured for part of 2024 pass him in the reliability category too.

Now, if you pay close attention to MLB free agency, all I can say is this is every bit a 15 million dollar pitcher. Factor in the innings, the health he’s shown and his ability to reach brilliance often enough, that’s easily the kind of money he could command on the open market at his age. Next year it’ll be 16 million, then 18 and it finishes in 2028 with a 20 million dollar season.

A Mitch Keller who stays right where he is probably remains worth every penny, but for this to work for Pittsburgh, He needs to wind up a bargain by the time that contract winds down.

He’s got work to do to meet that challenge.

Let’s hope he starts this week.

4. The Cheapest Fix Remains Unfixed

Welp, I’m tapped. I suggested the Pirates use Dennis Santana and Ryan Borucki in the back end of the pen to replace the demoted David Bednar and injured Colin Holderman who were mightily struggling, and in their first save opportunity since we started talking about it, they did exactly that.

They even based it on matchups like I suggested. Borucki got the 9th because the Yankees had 2 lefties coming up.

And yeah, that too failed.

Santana held up his end of the bargain in the 8th, but a couple feet, but I digress. Borucki, not so much, not that he got a ton of defensive help.

Look, a bad outing doesn’t change my mind on a player. It educates it, it moves it forward, it adds on to the bucket of information I have at my fingers, but it doesn’t cause me to think they’re great or awful, at least not when it’s someone I expect something from, don’t make me pretend I saw some path for Miguel Del Pozo or something.

I’d stick with this concept for a bit. I know these players put some kind of magic forcefield around pitching the 9th and to them it’s very much so real that it’s a different thing.

OK, you’re playing, not me, who am I to argue.

Well, if that’s the case, you should probably give people more than one look at it before you decide.

Santana is a fine bullpen pitcher, he’s done well as a Pirates player and I have no issue giving him a shot at it, but they’ve simply got issues beyond that.

Caleb Ferguson has been their best reliever, and while I loved the signing for around 3 million bucks and really thought he’d help, that can’t be your best reliever, just can’t.

All of what I just said about Mitch Keller, well, you start getting to the point where you have to have 7 or 8 innings from every starter for a chance to win, you just aren’t gonna win a lot.

This doesn’t have to turn into a panic move, but it does need addressed. Thing is, this organization still believes David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Kyle Nicolas and others are going to step up…

That’s fine, so long as they do, AND you cut bait and bring in help early enough to matter if they don’t.

This bullpen won’t even get them out of the NL Central basement, let alone .500, not pitching like this.

5. Injuries Are Not Why We’re Here

The injuries are piling up, but they aren’t the reason this team has performed the way they have.

I mean, would they be in better shape if Gonzales, Horwitz, Triolo, Jones and Holderman were all healthy? Maybe, but that’s all it is, maybe. Gonzales needed to break out, Horwitz needs to show his numbers at the MLB level while good can be replicated or improved upon, Triolo can play in the field, but he’s struggled at this level offensively. Jones is a big loss, but the starters by in large haven’t been THE problem, hard to deny it would have improved your 5 man rotation though. Finally, Holderman, when right is a shut down reliever. He was that for the vast majority of last year, but what he’s done this season, hard to pretend that’s a huge loss.

This team is where it is because they didn’t have enough experienced players, and the ones they brought in are a bit too experienced.

You can’t count guys you hoped would do whatever as losses of whatever you hoped they’d produce. It just never works out that way. I mean you can, I can’t. I have to look at what is, and it’s not about blame, it’s about how it shook out regardless of intention.

They entered this year with a ton of reliever options and two gigantic questions at the back end. Brought in some nice pieces but not one alternative to what Bednar was supposed to provide. That was foolish.

Point being, there was never a good mix, unless every thing went exactly right. More than that, some of those things that had to go right, well, they weren’t good bets, and further, they had all offseason and Spring to see the error in their assumptions and chose to ignore them.

This team entered with a ton of 2B options. 1 injury in and Adam Frazier was a full time starter. 3 injuries in and a guy with 11 AAA games under his belt is being called up to backup 75% of your infield.

The Pittsburgh Pirates ladies and gentlemen don’t do enough for a lot of reasons, money chief among them, but more than anything, because they almost always see numbers of viable options as automatically equaling 1 good answer.

6. Bonus: Red Sox trade Quinn Priester to Milwaukee

This is interesting.

The Red Sox sent right-hander Quinn Priester to Milwaukee for prospect Yophery Rodriguez, a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick in this year’s draft and a player to be named later or cash considerations.

This is a lottery ticket, but a solid one. He’s 19 years old and completed a solid Low A season as an 18 year old last year. There is a lot of potential here.

The Brewers paid a heavy price, it’s not easy to pry starting pitching depth away from a team this early in the season, but the Sox loaded up since acquiring Quinn and the Brewers are desperate.

See the Brewers are down to Freddy Peralta as the lone representative of their intended opening day rotation and a long list of guys who aren’t all that close to making it back. Quinn can step right in and at least eat innings.

The Pirates of course moved Priester for Nick Yorke who himself is on the IL now, but on paper, Milwaukee paid more for him than the Sox paid the Pirates.

Again, desperation plays in, but these deals will be compared through the next few years and for a lot of reasons. First, if Quinn catches on, nobody likes being beaten by someone they drafted in the first round and gave up on. Second, just comparing the returns on both of these packages for Priester himself.

I like the Yorke deal, but until it plays out at this level, you certainly can’t call it a win.

Good luck to Quinn, I still think there’s some work there to do, but he’s going to finally get what he really needs to have, a chance to compete for a while. Sink or swim.