Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – NL Central Basement

4-14-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates stand alone at the bottom of the NL Central, and it’s well earned. They’ve pitched well enough to win more than they’ve lost, but the bats have only really stolen one game this year.

Today, let’s focus on what they have done, some possible changes that might help and more than anything, look forward to seeing if some of these sticks can wake up against the Washington Nationals.

Lets Go!

1. Awfully Bad Offense

There are excuses of course. There always are. None that should have even this collection of players hitting this poorly mind you, but the team can point to injury, regardless of IL trips vs bench riding type.

They can’t point to a new hitting program. Even if Matt Hague came in here with some revolutionary approach at the plate (he didn’t) or took an All Star like Reynolds aside and told him he’s been doing everything wrong (he didn’t), you’d still expect the guys you expect to contribute to hit to a certain baseline.

Guys like Reynolds, Cruz, Hayes, IKF, Bart, Cutch, well, they all have to hit, at least a little. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is, and it’s no great shakes but .260 in this lineup looks like vintage Tony Gwynn.

Bart is, he’s hitting .275 and has a team leading OPS of .795. More than acceptable for your starting catcher.

Cruz and Reynolds have had rotten starts to the season. Both have dealt with injury, Reynolds to his shoulder, Cruz to his finger, but the rough start predated both of their injuries.

I don’t need to tell you that everyone else needs to get going like Derek Shelton says when asked about the offense. You all know that, but this group of guys, well, they have to hit or no call ups, no trades, no moves, no lineup adjustments, no pitching rotation decisions, no coaching changes, nothing will help.

First things first, for whatever reason, IKF is hitting the baseball. I’d move him to leadoff and try to see if you can apply more pressure on the defense with Reynolds and Cruz coming to the plate. As it stands now, a Reynolds extra base hit is an automatic Cruz walk incoming. Hopefully a guy who gets on base at a .339 clip leading into those two and hopefully a healthy Joey Bart could make the top 4 in the lineup more productive. At least you’d have a portion of the lineup for teams to think about getting through.

If they for some reason don’t want to do that, well, put Cruz at leadoff again. He’s already walked 10 times and he has a league leading 8 stolen bases. Let’s get that in front of Reynolds, move Bart up to 3 and see what comes of it. Let him stress the defense this way until he starts getting pitched to again, which hopefully Reynolds backing him would produce.

No, neither are ideal, but they have zero protection for either of their “premier” bats, and that leads to frustration and trying to do to much.

The Pirates are the only team in baseball with a team batting average under .200 at .184. The Bucs have the lowest OPS in the game at .563. They are last in baseball with a Slugging percentage of .290. There are only 3 teams with a lower team OBP at .273, one point ahead of the White Sox and Reds, and 6 points ahead of the Rangers.

26th in Homeruns with 10. Tied for 23rd in baseball with 18 doubles.

Believe it or not, with runners in scoring position, their .250 mark is 66 points higher than their team average, and good for 14th in baseball. Tangibly, what this means is they’ve had 108 chances with RISP and they’ve come up with 38 RBI, good for 24th in baseball. For perspective, the Mets only hit .163 in these situations and they have 39 RBI.

It’s bad. Ok? But this list of players, they aren’t going anywhere. They don’t hit, this team doesn’t hit. Yes, this isn’t enough to win anything that matters, but it’s enough to produce respectfully in this league, and that’s step one to climbing out of this hole.

There’s no sense in worrying about the fringes of the meal if the meat and potatoes are spoiled.

2. If We’re Gonna Lose….

If you ask Ben Cherington how he feels about the team he’s put together like they did on the Fan yesterday here’s what he pops out like Teddy Ruxpin talking to Greg Brown.

The Question: Full Compliment of players not really involved yet…

Answer: “Yeah, I think I’ve referenced in the past, my feeling that this is the deepest group of players, certainly at the upper levels that we’ve had, and I believe that. But we haven’t had the full compliment of those players to you know, lean on so far early in the season. It’s not intended to be an excuse, you gotta find a way to win.”

He loves this trope. And, hey, I like the depth near the top of the minors better too, at least on the mound, but more than anything, I started thinking, if your brightest look at what makes this a “better roster” is the guys who aren’t on it, well, maybe that should change.

Here’s the thing, if they keep going like this, we’ll see all that depth up here as course, but if indeed this depth is the reason to be excited, well, let’s use it.

I am of the belief there is very little to be gained by playing Adam Frazier or Tommy Pham. Even if they reach the heights of what they’re capable of they’re MLB bench players. Replace them with two of your incredible depth players Ben. Liover Peguero might not be much better, but he’s younger than Frazier, can play more infield spots and it would be hard to be much worse. Plus, you have to make a decision on him soon.

Nick Yorke just came off the IL, maybe get him up here to replace Frazier. He can literally do the exact same thing, plus fill in at 3B if you need it and doesn’t look like a mismatch at 1B. Matt Gorski is just about the same player as Alexander Canario, except older and his team never even tried him in MLB. Well, maybe it’s time, he can’t possibly contribute less than Pham.

Point is, Frazier and Pham were brought in here to add veteran leadership, well, there’s either nothing to lead or, as in life, people follow people who achieve, not those who yell about achieving. The literal reason stated for needing these types of players was to avoid going into long losing streaks, you know, cause they simply won’t accept it and will speak up in the room. Well, pardon me if I don’t want to listen to Mr. 2 for 40 telling me I have to step up.

I’d rather watch Gorski strike out 40% of the time than Pham. I’d rather watch Nick Yorke struggle to get his MLB footing than watch Adam Frazier continue to try to prove he still has footing.

Even if it nets the same record.

If we’re going to lose, let’s lose with guys who have ceiling room left. At least it’d remove this fake belief that having potential options is the same as having options.

That was true in 2023, not in 2025.

3. How Long a Leash Do They Give Mlodzinski?

Carmen Mlodzinski moving back to starting was a surprise. It’s something he has been pitching for 2 years to the team, and they sent him into the offseason to train as such.

Even so, without the Jared Jones injury, he probably starts in the bullpen and with Jones, Johan Oviedo, Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler all either healing or pushing, along with a bullpen in need of a hammer, I’m not sure how long this will last frankly.

I mean, we could of course have more injuries and we’ll look up sometime in July as Carmen has 15 starts under his belt, we’ll have to see how it plays out.

Sans injury though, he’s started 3 games.

March against Tampa, 3.2 innings, 4 ER. Then 5 innings against St. Louis with 1 ER. And lastly at Cincy where he lasted 4.1 innings and surrendered 4 runs.

I’m not sure if this is about guys seeing him multiple times quite yet, as much as him running out of steam, and when he runs out of steam, he runs out of answers or tries to adjust and throw harder.

Regardless, when the wheels start to fall off, they fall all the way off and you better be ready to pick up the pieces.

Young starter, so it’s hard to act like this defines his ability to do this job, but the Pirates depth here and need in the pen could mean the Pirates patience for this experiment could be shorter than it would be if they had fewer choices.

I’ve heard some claim this was stupid by the team to even attempt, but lets take a step back. If you need offense, which as we’ve discussed, they sorely do, you’re probably going to have to trade pitching to do it. So, even if you do nothing here but prove he “could” do it if you had more patience, a guy like Mlodzinski becomes a more valuable pitcher. If you don’t want to automatically have to sell Harrington or Chandler for help, don’t turn your nose up at trying to prove you have more proven depth to move.

Ultimately, I think Mlodzinski is a bullpen arm. That’s just my opinion, based on what I’m seeing, but nothing more than an opinion. If you can prove he’s capable of both, again, you can either use him yourself or to net a bat. If he’s the feature in a deal like Ortiz was and he returns a hitter, well, this was a success.

How long does it last? Well, how long before Bubba is impossible to ignore? How long before an injured arm comes back? How long before 5 innings max isn’t enough in that spot?

4. How Hot is Shelton’s Seat?

I’d say scorching. Like leather seats in August and you’re wearing shorts hot.

Dejan Kovacevic reported in his Friday insider that he’d gotten the impression that the patience isn’t infinite. Meaning sooner than later, they’ll make a change as opposed to continuing to watch this team flounder.

To add to that, I’ve heard that while they don’t believe by any measure the roster is where it needs to be or how they intended, they do believe there is enough here to be performing better than they are, and by a healthy stretch.

I’m not sure I completely agree, but it’s what I heard.

The Pirates could of course just choose to blow it all up, but if they want to go in that direction, I can’t see it in the middle of the season. They could move on from a manager, that’s not going to call for the sweeping changes that changing the GM even to an interim would create, but it would give the GM time to show he has more talent in house than the manager is making it appear.

Again, I’m not at all sure I agree, but typically, a GM will get to replace a coach before meeting his own fate, the bugaboo being here that Cherington went out of his way to not only defend bringing Shelton back, but claiming he was the right guy and hitching his wagon to him as it pertains to accountability.

Sure, Nutting can make this call from above his head, and yes, he’d have to accept it (providing he wants to keep his job for a while longer) and he’d have to publicly act as though it was his call.

That’s fine. People in this industry are well accustomed to having to tap dance for the man, but overall, many of the things plaguing this team on the field all the way from who pitches and when to who’s in and out of the lineup are at least aided by his philosophies and his analytics deciphering department that he’s expanded 3 times since being here.

If the Pirates choose to let Cherington fire Shelton and survive himself, to me, I’m telling him ok, but hands the hell off bro. The manager makes managerial decisions and if he tells you he needs something from the minors, you go get it for him. If he wants to pitch Paul Skenes as much as humanly possible instead of constantly playing games with how and when he starts, well, stand back, shut up and stay out of it.

The Owner sets the budget (not enough, but he doesn’t control how it’s used).

The Team President runs the business (badly, he’s a problem too).

The GM runs the personnel, meaning the players they acquire via trade, signing, draft.

The Coach runs the team and this typically includes at least the 40-man as it comes to input. Lineups, the Rotation, the bullpen and it’s usage, the rest schedule, everything. Derek Shelton hasn’t run this stuff without Analytics being on his shoulder guiding him since he’s been here. He has no gut, primarily because he’s rarely been left to exercise the muscle.

Chances are, this will be this regimes last year here one way or another, but Derek Shelton won’t be here come All Star Break if things don’t turn around quickly.

And yes, just like last time, Bob won’t keep him just to not pay him for not coaching. We’ve seen that movie before.

All I know is, I can smell a sales job, and every sound byte of Shelton talking about Tommy Pham leads me to believe he’s uttering the intended upside stuff Cherington sold him when they made the signing. A new coach won’t likely be sold that bill of goods. Even Don Kelly wouldn’t want to tarnish his future opportunities by failing to look like he impacted things here when handed the interim reigns.

Bob won’t sell this team. Sorry, he just won’t. But that doesn’t mean he’s just ok with limping along for half a decade.

Bob Nutting saying something like “I believe I’ve given the team everything they need to win” may sound laughable, and frankly, it is, but if you look at it another way, someone told him what “they needed” too, and he’s not just saying it to say it.

If I’m Cherington hearing that statement, well, maybe I’m the one bringing up moving on from Shelton sooner than later.

5. Why Are We Back to Watching Strike 3?

Lets say I walk into a room with 10 guys in it and I tell all 10 guys to take a step forward. All 10 do it and yet, 8 of them are farther back than the 2 tallest. Same instruction, everyone followed it, different results for a couple of them.

Well, some of this hitting stuff isn’t much different. If your overriding philosophy is to take as many pitches as you can in an at bat, well, you are going to get fooled and take a good pitch. The Pirates biggest offensive issue, talent aside, is that they don’t adjust by in large to how that philosophy needs to change with 2 strikes. It also prevents guys from getting their A swing off before they get to 2 strikes.

Better hitters mitigate this to a degree, but the best way I can put this is, their organizational hitting approach sounds good on paper, but makes very little sense when applied. And especially because of whom they have applying it.

When Ke’Bryan Hayes is going good you’ll see him take big cuts until he gets to 2 strikes, then he shortens up and almost no matter what he sees he’ll be just looking for contact the other way. When he isn’t going good, you’ll see him either continue to try to take a big cut with 2 strikes or try to get cute with taking borderline.

That’s because baked into every thing the Pirates do offensively is an overriding ethos that the hitters need to see pitches, especially against a starter. Well, that simply doesn’t work against some pitchers, or organizations for different reasons.

Take the Rays, they’re going to pull their starter 99% of the time even if they’ve got 55 pitches through 5, so all you’re doing with that philosophy facing them is helping them set you up. You’ll never get to the starter because he was gonna get got anyway. In other words, Kevin Cash is basically like thanks guys, this was great. We got to the bullpen with a lead, goodnight.

That doesn’t mean the Pirates can’t hit the guy, it just means, they’re going to throw strikes, and your ethos is going to have you down 0-2 or 1-2 before you’ve gotten settled in.

Hunter Greene just yesterday started almost everyone 0-2 or 1-2, and the Pirates had 7 innings to adjust to him. NEVER did they start swinging earlier.

Now, that’s just in general. Any given game, anyone could decide that’s not how I’m going to approach things. A great example of this is Joey Bart. Yeah, he’s not immune to the strikeout or even getting caught for a backwards K, but he gets his swing off at least once most at bats, and when he has two strikes, he seeks contact over power.

Jack Suwinski is the ultimate coachable kid. Probably too much. Tell him to be more aggressive because he got caught looking and next game you might see him swing at the first 3 no matter what. Tell him to see more pitches cause he’s batting lead off? OK, prepare for a backwards K or two, cause you don’t get those kind of at bats without taking borderline here and there. Fill his head with a certain pitch that’s been plaguing him, well, he’ll spit on it for sure, but he’ll spit on just about everything that goes in that part of the strike zone too. If anything, stay the hell away from him alltogether.

Some of the Pirates hitters simply think too highly of their eye at the plate. Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen have some of the best eyes at the plate I’ve seen, but both don’t adjust well to the umpire having a different vision of what that zone is tonight, and neither are likely to recover during the course of that game. Reynolds especially can’t let go of what he sees as a “bad call” and he lets it influence every at bat the rest of the game.

Of course, sometimes you just get got. It happens. You’re expecting a breaking ball on 0-2, the pitcher instead pipes one right down the slot. Well, you aren’t catching it, which is why it’s so important to change your approach there so you can at least waste one.

I can tell you this though. Nobody is coaching these guys to stare at strike 3. Or that a walk is just as good as a hit.

Poor performance breeds players hunting walks for their own self preservation. When nothing is landing, it sometimes seems easier to be patient and try to take walks to help climb out of your slump. Again, if a hitting coach has a measurable job, this is it. Help guys get out of their head and be clear in the box, ready and committed to getting at least one of their best swings off and prepared to become a singles hitter with 2 strikes.

All that being said, they are being told to be selective, and coaching needs to be more aware of pitchers that might just be suicide against. Sure, wait out Steven Matz, don’t wait out Hunter Greene. Feel me?