4-15-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
After finally breaking through with a big offensive outburst yesterday, the Pirates will look to continue the hot hitting against Jake Irvin.
Irvin enters with a 5.63 ERA through his first three starts, which came against some solid offensive opposition in the Phillies, Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Additionally, he lasted at least 5 innings in each of those outings, eating innings for his team.
That said, even with that bloated ERA, Irvin’s peripherals indicate he could be even worse as his 5.88 FIP is the highest among all qualified starting pitchers, buoyed by below-average rates in both strikeouts (17.4%) and walks (8.7%) and coupled with some consistently hard contact against him.
Irvin’s average exit velocity against (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (51%) each rank 4th highest per FanGraphs but his barrel rate (17.6%) is the highest mark in MLB by a considerable margin.
While I covered his pitch mix in my preview last time we faced him – where the Bucs put up 6 runs off 7 hits through 5 innings, he has pivoted a bit off his fastball.
Early on this season, Irvin is utilizing his high-70s curve low in the zone more and more, comprising 36% of his total pitches thrown this season to date.
He adds in a 4-seam and sinker in the low-90s with the sinker used mostly against righties and the 4-seam dispatched versus left handed hitters. He also adds in the high-80s changeup as a weapon when facing lefties low in the zone and a cutter that has been tossed very infrequently as he doesn’t appear to have a great feel for the offering.
Irvin has above-average extension, which allows his stuff to play up a bit more but the fastballs have been hit HARD and should be the ones targeted by Pirates hitters today.
Last season, Irvin led the National League in losses with 14 and allowed 29 home runs on the year. He gets hit hard and often, and if the Pirates can continue the magic they found in yesterday’s outing, maybe they can get on a roll this series.
Steel City Pirates 