4-17-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Offense broke out yesterday behind a solo shot by Henry Davis and a grand slam by Oneil Cruz, the latter of which followed a benches-clearing incident involving a certain glove-tossing pitcher, the bats are showing signs of life. Can they continue it and secure a series victory? They’ll have to contend with former Pirates hurler, Trevor Williams.
Today will be the 57th start for Williams at PNC Park, by far the most in any ballpark after spending his first five seasons calling the park his home.
Despite missing nearly 4 months with a muscle strain, Williams had a strong 2024 campaign and looks to build on that success where he posted a 6-1 record with a 2.03 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 66.2 innings pitched.
His 2025 stint hasn’t started out quite as well as he enters play today with a 7.36 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over his first 14.2 innings.
Unlike his rotation partner, Mitchell Parker, Williams actually has been bit with some extreme bad luck in the early going, holding the 8th highest BABIP among pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched this season.
Additionally, both his FIP (3.91) and xFIP (3.80) are considerably lower than his ERA, so it’s likely he improves over a bigger sample size – just, you know, hopefully starting next week.
Looking at his arsenal, his velocity has dropped significantly from his Pirates tenure as his fastball averages 87-88 MPH – among the slowest in MLB – and both his 4-seam and sinker have been below-average pitches.
In contrast, his mid-70s sweeper and low-80s changeup – his main secondary offerings – have graded out much more positive with plus movement at the bottom of the zone that works effectively in spite of the low velocity.
Williams also adds in a low-80s slider that hasn’t gotten great results but gives hitters a slightly different look that can be deceptive with his nearly sidearm delivery path.
Pirates hitters should be looking to target the elevated fastball today. Williams has been locating his breaking/off-speed stuff down and under the zone with his 4-seam typically upstairs against both lefties and righties.
With a chance for the series win today, the Buccos need to be hungry and be ready to swing the bats.
Steel City Pirates 