4-24-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Following a stellar start by Andrew Heaney, the Pirates are poised to get not only their first sweep of the season but their first time winning 3 games straight. Opposing them to halt that momentum, old friend in journeyman lefty, Tyler Anderson, who pitched for Pittsburgh in 2021.
Entering the final season of his 3 year, $39 million contact signed with the Angels, Anderson is off to a strong start, hoisting a 2.04 ERA over 21.2 innings but underlying metrics indicate that he’s been lucky thus far.
Among pitchers with 20+ innings, only fellow southpaw Shota Imanaga has a larger difference between his ERA and FIP, and his xFIP is a full 3 runs higher than his ERA, suggesting that a regression to the mean is likely ahead for the veteran lefty.
Two big reasons for this stems from both his opponent BABIP of .157 (the 2nd lowest behind just Rangers pitcher Tyler Mahle’s .156) and his 96% strand rate (behind only Chad Patrick of the Brewers – 96.6%).
His “stuff” is alright but certainly not good enough to maintain this level of production. He utilizes mostly three pitches: a high-80s 4-seamer, high-80s changeup and a mid-80s cutter – adding in occasional slider, sinkers and curve but primarily working off the main three pitches, with the changeup being his best weapon.
Anderson’s ability to locate the changeup and generate whiffs on the pitch at a 41.4% clip have made it his primary offering when he needs to miss a bat. Each of the changeup and two fastball pitches have sub-.150 oBA and low exit velocity marks thus far this season.
Unlike the previous two Angels arms faced, Anderson doesn’t get a ton of ground-balls with his 24.5% rate ranking so the hits that fall in might be flares into shallow center field or balls flicked the opposite way.
Getting ahead of this now: Anderson has reverse splits on the season, mowing down righties and getting lit up by lefties.
This is a small-ish sample size (at least compared to his career numbers which are mostly more favorable for right handed hitters) and I would be surprised if Shelton plays into it as he’ll almost certainly push a right-heavy lineup contrasting the previous two days.
Regardless of whether they are lefty or righty, Bucs batters will want to stay on the fastballs up and try to lay off the changeups low in the zone. The movement on the off-speed stuff has been effective but the fastballs are much more manageable.
Chance for a rare series sweep on the line to build momentum before the long trip to Chavez Ravine tomorrow.
Steel City Pirates 