4-25-2025 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X
Pittsburgh will take the California Road Show 30 odd miles North up I-5 to Dodger Stadium for a three game set beginning today. Never an easy task to take on the reigning World Champs, but from a fan perspective it is enjoyable to watch that collection of talent in Dodger blue.
Speaking from a personal standpoint, being located on the West Coast, I watch the Dodgers (and the NL West as a whole) a lot. Their stadium atmosphere is generally always buzzing and the thing that makes them a difficult opponent also makes for great viewing. At any given moment they can hang big, crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Before we get to the offense, the perspective pitching matchup in game 1 must get some love. Talk about a clash of the Titans! Yamamoto & Skenes are two of the premier talents in the world when it comes to starting pitching and any time they toe the rubber opposite one another it makes for appointment viewing.
Game 2’s pitching matchup will offer fans the opportunity to see prized youngster Roki Sasaki square off with Mitch Keller. As you can see below both have had trouble with issuing free passes and consistently limiting traffic on the bases. Pirate fans are very familiar with Keller, but Sasaki has a rather limited sample size to his credit. The split finger he throws is a truly devastating pitch. His arsenal is handicapped by his inability to command it thus far, but the raw material he boasts is incredibly potent.
Old Friend Tyler Glasnow will face off with Bailey Falter on 4/27. Glasnow has some of the best K stuff around and always proves a tough task for hitters. Bailey Falter’s surface stats look rough, but the peripheral numbers paint a much better picture of his true skill. A 3.51 xERA & 4.20 SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA) are indicative of a hurler who has more in the tank than what the back of the baseball card numbers will lead one to believe. This matchup might be very sneakily fun!
Over the last 2 weeks of games the LA offense has been uncharacteristically “poor.” In this timeframe their team wOBA & wRC+ sit at .306 & 94 respectively. Pittsburgh’s marks over this span are remarkably similar at .311 & 93. Tommy Edman, Will Smith (who is labeled at DTD as of writing), & Freddie Freeman (who appears to be heating up) have carried the offensive burden since 4/10, but there is no room for error against any member of this Dodger club. The possibility for this Dodger team to go nuclear is there every single game. But right now, I think Pittsburgh has a chance to hang with them given how both have been playing of late.
4/25
Pirates: Paul Skenes (R) – 2-2, 31.1 IP, 2.87 ERA, 30 Ks/4 walks, 0.80 WHIP
Dodgers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R) – 3-1, 29.0 IP, 0.93 ERA, 38 Ks/7 walks, 0.87 WHIP
4/26
Pirates: Mitch Keller (R) – 1-2, 28.0 IP, 4.18 ERA, 20 Ks/10 walks, 1.36 WHIP
Dodgers: Roki Sasaki (R) – 0-1, 19.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 16 Ks/16 walks, 1.47 WHIP
4/27
Pirates: Bailey Falter (L) – 1-2, 26.0 IP, 5.19 ERA, 20 Ks/7 walks, 1.19 WHIP
Dodgers: Tyler Glasnow (R) – 1-0, 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 23 Ks/10 walks, 1.18 WHIP
Pirates: Enmanuel Valdez – Valdez can swing it! He has been hitting the ball hard of late posting all well above average exit velocity (92.4), MLB average max exit velocity (108.2), and MLB average 90th percentile exit velocity (104.8), & a strong xDamage (.472). Valdez has had some stints of being a successful bench/utility man in Boston in 2023-24, but he is playing much more like a starting caliber bat at the moment. Hopefully he can keep it rolling and give the Bucs lineup a little more punch on a consistent basis.
Dodgers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Yamamoto has been perhaps the best starting pitcher on planet Earth over the last 2 weeks. The Pirates will greet him fresh off of an absolute masterpiece at Texas. In that gem he limited the Rangers to 5 hits over 7 frames while piling up 10 Ks/0 walks and 20 whiffs. Yamo features two “elite” offerings, the most valuable splitter in baseball & one of the most valuable four-seam fastballs in the game. But the entire arsenal is hard to hit. Of his 7 categorized pitches, 5 of them garner over 30% whiff rates. His four-seam, while valuable, can be exploited if hitters can recognize and jump on it. Batters have been hitting it hard (95 mph EV against). But the great difficulty here is that he tunnels it with his world-class split finger exceptionally well & often makes even the best hitters look foolish.
Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes – There is no doubting the defensive value Hayes brings. He consistently brings 80 grade defense. This will always help to buttress his profile and usually is enough to provide a positive return to the team effort. It must be acknowledged that the offense has been quite dreadful of late.
Hayes does flash impressive batted ball data somewhat regularly (9.61 average EV/105 90th percentile, 48.3 hard hit rate). However with below par quality of contact (.359 xDamage) he just fails to turn it in to production too often. He is capable of bouts of production though & when he does it makes a big difference for the Pirates.
Dodgers: Michael Conforto – Andre 3,000 famously once asked “What’s cooler than being cool?” And as we well know, it was met with the refrain “Ice cold!” Well, I submit to you that question could currently be answered with “Michael Conforto!”
Conforto has been among the most cold hitters in the league recently. While the hits aren’t coming, he has at least been grinding out walks and posting a solid .341 OBP. Pirates righties need to attack Conforto and not allow him to wait them out to get on base. His last 11 games he is slashing .182/.341/.182 with a .523 OPS. Put the pressure on him and try not to issue any free passes!
Pirates: Nick Gonzales, Jared Jones, Endy Rodriguez, Tim Mayza, Colin Holderman, Johan Oviedo, Spencer Horwitz, Dauri Moreta
Dodgers: Blake Treinen, Blake Snell, Will Smith (DTD), Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw, Michael Kopech, Edgardo Henriquez
Notes:
- Since returning from the birth of his first child, Shohei Ohtani has been on a 1/14 skid. Kids, man.
- The LA bullpen has been tasked with 106 IP this season, the most in baseball. Add on to this that one of their key relief arms, Blake Treinen, is out with injury there is opportunity here to apply pressure by getting to their banged up pen for the Bucs.
Steel City Pirates 