04-29-25 – By Josh Poe – @DaRealHanYolo on X
The Pirates are back home to welcome their division rival, the Chicago Cubs. This will be the first time these two rivals square off this year. The Cubs have been red hot, so the Pirates will have their work cut out for them. But, the Pirates have shown signs of life in the last week, going (3-3) against the Angels and the Dodgers. Let’s get into it!
Last year, the Pirates were 6-7 against the Cubs. However, the teams look a little different this year. The Cubs now boast a scary new hitter in the form of Kyle Tucker, who is batting .289 with 7 HRs already this young season. In fact, their team batting average ranks 3rd among MLB teams and 2nd in on-base percentage. Their offense has been on fire so far.
If there is a silver lining for the Bucs, it would be the Chicago pitching. The Cubs’ pitching staff has the 11th-worst ERA in the majors with 4.24. They also rank 7th in hits allowed and 10th in walks allowed, so there is an avenue for the Pirates to exploit, as the Pirates have the 14th-best team ERA with 3.98.
The Pirates looked somewhat sharp in their last road trip. While 3-3 isn’t outstanding by any stretch of the imagination, going up against the Dodgers and what the time was when the red-hot Angels and getting out with a record of 3-3 is good. What the Bucs need to do this series is get out of their own way. By that, I mean they need to stop making the dumb mistakes that they always seem to make that kill the momentum of the team, like not taking pitches on offense or vice versa, taking too many pitches on offense.
To be successful against these Cubs (which I do think is possible), it is going to come down to game management. I know I’m not the only one harping on Derek Shelton’s managing skills, but there is a lane here to make a statement and nab a series. For instance, you have Carmen Mlodzinski starting on Wednesday, which is wild given what he has shown so far, but I think they could use him and win.
Here is a formula: Mlod goes 3 innings, then they pass it off to Caleb Ferguson for 2 innings, then go from there. Game management will be what wins or loses this series for the Pirates; it’s what got in their way from a sweep of the Angels and a series win over the Dodgers. I think the Pirates can take this series as their offense in the last week has gone from horrendous to slightly watchable, and that, in turn, can nab them a series, but it will take good game management, so time will tell.
4/29
Cubs: Shota Imanaga (L) 2-1, 34.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 27 Ks/ 12 walks, 1.09 WHIP
Pirates: Andrew Heaney (L) 2-1, 31.1 IP, 31 Ks/ 6 walks, 0.77 WHIP
4/30
Cubs: Mathew Boyd (L) 2-2, 28.1 IP, 2.54 ERA, 24 Ks/ 10 walks, 1.38 WHIP
Pirates: Carmen Mlodzinki (R) 1-3, 22.0 IP, 6.95 ERA, 18 Ks/ 9 walks, 1.82 WHIP
5/1
Cubs: Colin Rea (R) 1-0, 18.2 IP, 0.96 ERA, 19 Ks/ 3 walks, 1.07 WHIP
Pirates: Paul Skenes (R) 3-2, 37.2 IP, 2.39 ERA, 39 Ks/ 4 walks, 0.80 WHIP
Cubs: Pete Crow-Armstrong – As much as he annoys me (which is a lot), you can’t deny that Pete has emerged as a star. In the last 15 days, Pete has been the best hitter in baseball. In 46 at-bats, he has 5 HRs with 14 RBIs and 6 stolen bases. He is also batting .413 and slugging .913. His fielding has been off the charts so far this year as well. With his speed, he will be a threat to the Bucs this series. If there is a silver lining for the Pirates in his game, it’s that he chases pitches and doesn’t walk a lot. You can get him out by just pitching smart to him.
Pirates: Oneil Cruz – Cruz has been on fire lately, but you know that. I still want to talk about it. On this west coast trip, Cruz went 9 for 27, which is a .333 average. With 3 HRs and 5 RBIs in addition to 3 walks and 2 SBs. His barrel and hard hit rate are in the 97th and 99th percentile of current MLB players. The biggest thing about his game improving is his walks. Cruz has been taking his walks a lot more and using them to his advantage to steal and get in scoring position. The big task for him in this series will be lefty pitchers; we know his struggles with them, and even though he has been better against them, it’s still an area of concern for him.
Cubs: Dansby Swanson – Swanson, the Cubs’ big free agent signing going into 2023, has been very cold to start the season. In 116 at-bats this year, he is batting .181 with an OPS of .577. In his last 2 games, he has had 9 at-bats, no hits, and struck out 4 times. His whiff and K rates are all up, and he seems to be struggling across the board to start this season. If his play has a bright spot, it’s that he has been hitting the ball very hard, so, at some point, you do expect his swings to find some grass. But his barrel rate and expected slugging are average, so Swanson’s hope is slim right now.
Pirates: Alexander Canario – Okay, I know this one is a bit of a cop out because he simply doesn’t play, but even when he does, he can’t seem to touch a ball. On the season, he is 2 for 26, which I know is a very small sample size, but with Gorski on the roster now, Canario’s time seems even more limited. His numbers seem like he would be good because he can barrel up balls, but they just seem to find gloves. Does he warrant more time? Maybe, given the matchups this week. Two of the starting pitchers are lefties, so I’d like to see Gorski get one day and Canario get the other, assuming Cutch and Reynolds are in the lineup. Do I think Canario can find it? I honestly don’t know, but time is running out fast for him, so let’s see what he’s got!
Cubs: Javier Assad, Eli Morgan, Justin Steele, Tyson Miller, Ryan Brasier, Drew Gray, Brett Bateman, Ismael Mena, Kohl Franklin, Ben Heller, Brandeon Birdsell
Pirates: Nick Gonzales, Jared Jones, Endy Rodriguez, Tim Mayza, Johan Oviedo, Spencer Horwitz, Dauri Moreta, Justin Lawrence, Sean Sullivan, Burch Smith, Brandan Bidois
Notes
- The Cubs as a team are killing left-handed pitching, ranking 2nd in team batting average against them, while the Pirates rank 8th worst in batting average against lefties. Something to keep an eye out for as the Bucs will face 2 lefties.
- Paul Skenes has been pretty dominant over the Cubs in his very young career. Being 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 4 outings versus the Cubs, so he will look to continue that dominance.
Steel City Pirates 