4-29-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
The Cubs may have a red hot offense which leads MLB in runs scored but they also have some stellar pitching led by today’s starter, Shota Imanaga.
The sophomore southpaw Imanaga had a strong showing in 2024 after signing with the Cubs following six seasons in Japan’s NPB league. He posted a 2.91 ERA over 173.1 innings with 174 strikeouts to 28 walks, including two scoreless starts against the Pirates where he totaled 14 innings, 4 hits, 14 strikeouts and just 3 walks.
While Imanaga is off to another strong showing this year with a 3.18 ERA through his first 34 frames, the underlying numbers indicate he hasn’t been nearly as dominant as his rookie campaign.
His strikeout rate is down 5.5% from last year (25.1% to 19.6%) while his walk rate has more than doubled from 4% to 8.7%.
Additionally, his BABIP has dropped from .225 last year to .198 this season despite his average exit velocity jumping from 88.6 to 90.7, which has his FIP, xFIP and SIERA all trending in the opposite direction.
As we talked about last year, Imanaga has a varied pitch mix but has prominently utilized his low-90s 4-seam fastball up in the zone and low-80s splitter down and away against right handed hitters. He has increased usage on his sweeper – mostly as a weapon down and away against lefties – which sits around 80-81.
Shota isn’t going to get a ton of swings and misses or blow hitters away with his stuff but manages to mix locations and speed to get hitters to chase high fastballs above the zone or splitters that bounce in the dirt.
Bucs bats will need to keep their eye level up against Imanaga. Lay off the junk down in the zone and target the high fastballs, which opponents have been slugging .688 against.
If he’s going to stay out of the zone, take walks, work counts and get on base where the team can try to REALLY wreak havoc on Shota.
Steel City Pirates 