5-2-2025 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X
The Friars come to town for a three day weekend. Fresh off of a disappointing series with the division foe Cubs, Pittsburgh will look to get the ship righted before hitting the road for St. Louis.
This series sees Pittsburgh missing staff ace Michael King, but unfortunately the Bucs will still have to deal with Dylan Cease & Nick Pivetta. These two are both capable of striking out hitters in bunches and going deep in to games. To this point in the season Cease has struggled to maintain sustained success, but one look at his peripherals and you can see the danger for opposing hitters lurking.
The Cease/Keller matchup in game one looks to be a fun engagement. Mitch is a dutiful innings-eater and Cease has really not been able to do that yet. In his 6 starts he has only made it to the 6th inning one time so far in 2025. Prone to fits of losing command, Cease is a classic strikeout artist. In his 4 seasons as a full time starter he has managed to K 200+ hitters in every one. If Pittsburgh can chase him somewhat early, it will go a long way for the rest of the series.
Game 2’s matchup gives the Pirates a chance to put a lot of pressure on Nick Pivetta for Sunday. Randy Vasquez has not been particularly good in 2025. Yes, Bailey Falter has a rather ugly surface line too, but I still believe his underlying skills give them a good opportunity here.
Nick Pivetta has been a dawg in 2025. Ranking 4th in fWAR & ERA in the National League runs have been tough to come by against him. Luckily, Andrew Heaney has been no slouch either. HeanDawg ranks 14th in fWAR & 8th in ERA in the NL as of writing. While he backslid in his last start & the underlying numbers show him to be overachieving to this point there is little reason to believe that he cannot keep the team in this game and give them a chance at a win.
Make no mistake, this is San Diego ballclub is formidable. They rank as the 2nd best in baseball in team pitching fWAR (2nd best bullpen/6th best SP group). The offense is right in the middle of the pack with the 16th best fWAR on the season. In spite of this, however, over the last 2 weeks the offense has been in the bottom 5. Combine this slight sputtering with team defense that rates poorly in OAA & just about average in DRS, there is opportunity here.
I think one of the more frustrating aspects of this season for the Pirates thus far has been inability to “counter punch” after they’ve stumbled in a series. Each series I have previewed thus far I think I’ve mentioned “an opportunity.” And I believe that they exist. We as fans have yet to see them effectively or consistently land many blows only absorb them. It is a grind of a season, much like one of Rocky Balboa’s fights. But there comes a point where Rocky starts punching back & hard. Hopefully the Pirates get some shots in before both eyes are swollen shut.
5/2
Padres: Dylan Cease (R) – 1-2, 29.2 IP, 5.76 ERA, 36 Ks/12 walks, 1.62 WHIP
Pirates: Mitch Keller (R) – 1-2, 34 IP, 3.97 ERA, 26 Ks/11 walks, 1.29 WHIP
5/3
Padres: Randy Vazquez (R) – 1-3, 27.1 IP, 4.28 ERA, 10 Ks/19 walks, 1.57 WHIP
Pirates: Bailey Falter (L) – 1-3, 30.1 IP, 5.93 ERA, 22 Ks/9 walks, 1.35 WHIP
5/4
Padres: Nick Pivetta (R) – 5-1, 35.1 IP, 1.78 ERA, 39 Ks/8 walks, 0.82 WHIP
Pirates: Andrew Heaney (L) – 2-2, 36 IP, 2.50 ERA, 31 Ks/9 walks, 0.89 WHIP
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. – You can’t talk Padres without talking El Niño. Second among all batters in baseball in both fWAR & bWAR (2.1/2.4), Tatis Jr. is a nightmare for opponents. Big, strong, & fast he is in the midst of an All-Star level campaign and could even have NL MVP aspirations when the dust settles. A true star.
Also worth noting the early dominance of game 3 starter, Nick Pivetta too. Recently he as only been outshined by his teammate, Michael King, who the Bucs are fortunate to miss this go around. Pivetta is near the top of the heap in both ERA (1.78) & WHIP (0.82). He has been a little “lucky” with regards to BABIP (.226 on the season), but what he is doing isn’t exactly fluky either.
Pirates: Oneil Cruz – It goes without saying, but Oneil Cruz means a lot to the 2025 Pirates ballclub. The 2025 version of Cruz is a demon. He makes consistent, hard, high quality contact and leads the Bucs in virtually every single meaningful offensive production category. Like it or not, much of the team’s success on the offensive side of the ball rests on #15’s shoulders.
For better or for worse, David Bednar has the second highest fWAR (0.3) accumulation over the last 2 week span of games. Bednar’s return to form is good news for the team as a whole, but the fact that he only trails Paul Skenes in fWAR in this timeframe is not exemplary of a team that is getting a lot of good pitching right now. Make no mistake, Bednar might just be “back.”
Padres: Manny Machado – One of the Padres other big dawgs has been in a cold spell over the last 2 weeks of games. Just 8/43 & slashing .200/.233/.250 in that span. But Pirate pitchers need to tread carefully. His underlying numbers are pointing to significantly better days ahead.
Pirates: Tommy Pham – Not surprising to fans & not worth belaboring the point, but we are in the “Who’s Not?” section. Tommy Pham has been doing less with his current opportunities at bat than anyone else over the early going. This isn’t just limited to a 2 week period though the same can be said for that snapshot too.
Padres: Jackson Merrill (hamstring), Jake Cronenworth (rib fracture), Joe Musgrove (UCL/TJ), Yu Darvish (elbow inflammation), Bryan Hoeing (shoulder strain), Matt Waldron (oblique strain), Jhonny Brito (forearm strain)
Pirates: Jared Jones (UCL sprain), Johan Oviedo (UCL surgery/lat strain), Endy Rodriguez (finger), Nick Gonzales (ankle fracture), Dauri Moreta (UCL surgery), Justin Lawerence (elbow inflammation), Spencer Horwtiz (wrist), Tim Mayza (lat strain)
Notes
- Things would need to go extremely poorly to see it this series, but Manny Machado is just 6 home runs away from 350 career big flies. Machado is sometimes unfairly maligned for the size of the free agent contract he signed, but he is almost certainly putting together an HoF resume up to this point.
Steel City Pirates 