5-2-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Pirates fans may breathe a sigh of relief that the Cubs have left town but the homestand won’t get any easier as they welcome the San Diego Padres and former Cy Young-winner, Dylan Cease on the docket today.
Cease has had a slow start to his 2025 campaign – his second in San Diego following a trade from Chicago last spring – as he enters today with a 5.76 ERA and 1-2 record over his first 29.2 innings pitched.
Despite the bloated ERA, the underlying numbers are all in line with his career norms (career 3.82 ERA) with a 3.84 xERA, 3.72 xFIP and a 3.16 FIP, holding the 7th highest differential between his ERA and FIP among starting pitchers.
Cease has been bit by some bad luck with a .388 BABIP (5th highest among SP) and just a 61.6% strand rate (19th lowest), which both seem wholly unsustainable long-term.
Unlike most pitchers, Cease leans more heavily on his slider over his fastball. His slider sits around 89-90 that runs down and away from right-handed hitters.
He pairs that with a 4-seam fastball/sinker around 96-97 at the top of the zone and mixes in occasional low-80s curve, high-70s change and low-80s sweeper. But mainly, Cease is a slider/fastball arm.
Righties have been surprisingly better against Cease than lefties this year, especially away from the friendly confines of Petco Park.
Specifically against the fastballs, righties are batting .316 against his 4-seam and an insane .667 against his sinker and the expected numbers are not far off from this (.284 and .463, respectively) so right handed hitters should stack up well and target high heat against Cease.
Lefties are batting .333 against Cease’s 4-seamer but with a .228 xBA so I would advise to look for hanging sliders breaking inside against them. Lefties are batting just .222 against the pitch but both the xBA (.247) and xSLG (.568) are the highest for opponents among his offerings.
Cease will eventually turn things around and return to being one of the best pitchers in baseball but if the Pirates pull the right strings and target the right pitches, maybe he’ll have to wait at least one more game.
Steel City Pirates 
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