5-7-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
I’m bald. I’ve been bald for nearly 15 years – partly by choice and partly because of genetics mostly forcing my hand. But one thing that has been outside of both my and my genetics control is how quickly this team is turning what few hair I have left gray because my goodness, they’re popping in patches at this point.
Side-rant aside, let’s shift to focusing on the final boss in the Cardinals series before the Bucs head back home as they spar against Sonny Gray, who has a Pittsburgh-esque 4.12 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with a 3-1 record, 39 Ks and 10 walks over his 39.1 innings pitched this season.
I’ve covered Gray at length previously as the Pirates have faced him 13 times over his career, most recently on April 8th where he held the Bucs to 1 run off just 3 hits through 5 innings pitched.
Gray’s numbers are down across the board as he’s generating less whiffs and chases than previous years, as well as seeing a significant drop in his K rate (24.2% down from 30.3% last year).
Gray goes to his fastball early first time through a lineup and will pivot to his curve-sweeper-changeup in subsequent plate appearances.
Given that opponents are batting .342 against his fastballs compared to just .130 facing his offspeed, the Bucs should try to hold fast to the heaters – which he uses nearly 52% of the time.
Specifically, lefties have CRUSHED Gray’s stuff as they are batting .400 and slugging .633 against his fastballs.
Given that he will use these pitches early in counts, expect a first pitch swing from Cruz in the game today and potentially some aggressive at-bats up and down the lineup.
Final point: It’s a small sample size but Gray has been struggling in day games this season (5.09 ERA in 23 innings compared to 2.76 ERA through 16.1 innings at night) so maybe the light of day can get to Gray?
We have to hope so because this losing is getting old.
Steel City Pirates 