5-10-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
I am fully prepared for the Pirates to get mowed down after a headline like this, especially given how the last outing went for tonight’s starter, AJ Smith-Shawver – who took a no-hitter into the 8th inning against the Reds on Monday night.
Smith-Shawver is starting to solidify his position in the Atlanta rotation after pitching briefly for the big league club in limited action during each of the past two seasons. The 22-year old former 7th round pick has a 2-2 record, 3.00 ERA and 27 strikeouts through 27 innings pitched. That’s the good news – well, for him, at least. The bad news is most everything else with one MAJOR exception (I’ll get there shortly).
While he has solid extension which helps him to miss bats at a decent rate, he also allows hard contact far too often, usually in the air and frequently coming after allowing baserunners to reach via a free pass (13 walks thus far this year) which are all reasons why his xERA of 5.31 is over 2 runs higher than his actual ERA. In theory, you’re just waiting for the shoe to drop.
Looking at his arsenal, most of his pitches are pretty poor overall. He offers 4-seam fastball that sits in the mid-90s and can reach 98, a high-70s curve with below average break and a high-80s slider which he throws infrequently (7.1%) because opponents are batting .667 and slugging 1.833(!) against the offering.
Oh, and one more thing – very minor, barely worth mentioning, honestly, but he has one of the best splitters in baseball today, and it might actually be one of the best pitches in MLB period.
This is the one thing that opposing hitters struggle with as the knuckleball-like low spin rate (1,072 RPM compared to 2,000+ for all other offerings) and devastating drop as it reaches the plate makes it nearly untouchable.
Thus far this year, opponents are batting .143 against Smith-Shawver’s splitter while resulting in 20 of his strikeouts and a 43.8% whiff rate.
His splitter is such an outlier, such an anomaly next to his other offerings that it’s hard to imagine how it’s so successful. Opponents just can’t pick up the spin, getting caught in between attacking a high fastball and swinging over the breaking splitter.
His throwing motion does differ when he’s going fastball versus offspeed. I am by no means an expert at deciphering this stuff but it looks like he holds the ball closer to his chest before delivering fastball whereas he holds it a bit further out when he’s getting ready to twirl the split, which is also why his extension on the splitter is slightly higher than his other options.
Different at-bats from a few weeks ago against the Tampa Bay Rays. First one resulted in 97 on the top outside corner. Second one was 83 about 5 inches lower.
Maybe I’m grasping at straws or maybe this is something the Bucs should keep an eye out for but either way, if they can neutralize Smith-Shawver’s splitter, the rest of his stuff is pretty…well, just check the headline again.
Steel City Pirates 