5-17-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
The 2024 Cy Young runner-up, Zack Wheeler is looking to claim the crown this season as he enters with a 2.95 ERA, an NL-best 0.91 WHIP and a sharp 4-1 record over his first 58 innings pitched.
The Bucs and Wheeler matched up multiple times over the years, most recently last April where the Pirates dealt him one of his worst outings of the year, lasting just 5 innings and allowing 5 runs (4 earned) off 5 hits and 3 walks with 10 strikeouts, proving even when a team “gets to him,” he can still put hitters away with the best of them.
Along qualified starting pitchers of the Senior Circuit, Wheeler ranks 2nd in K rate (33.2%), 5th in walk rate (4.9%), 5th in hard hit rate (36%), 4th in batting average against (.200) while he is tops in K-BB% (28.3%), SIERA (2.51) and xERA (2.35).
There aren’t many holes in the veteran righty’s game as the 34-year old effectively neutralizes lefty hitters (.182 BAA) and has just a 2.06 ERA the first two turns against opposing hitters.
He has 6 distinct pitches as he throws a 4-seam/sinker in the mid-90s that can touch 98, a low-80s sweeper, a high-80s splitter, a low-90s cutter and a curve that sits around 80-81.
Wheeler has mostly relied on his 4-seam against lefties, adding in his cutter/curve/splitter to mix speeds and change eye level. Lefties are hitting just .091 against his splitter and whiffing at a 50% rate when facing the curve so best option is staying with a quick bat at the top of the zone to attack the fastball if they can see the spin/movement early enough.
Righties have surprisingly done better against Wheeler (.721 OPS compared to .550 for LHH) as they see the 4-seam/sinker/sweeper mix, crushing the sinker at a .348 clip and slugging a whopping .739 against the offering – which the Phillies ace typically locates low and in against right handed hitters.
It may be a war of attrition as the Pirates battle against whatever Wheeler deals them in hopes to get to the bullpen early enough to put enough runs on the board.
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