5-19-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
With both teams surging in drastically different directions, the Pirates welcome the Reds and former Pirate draft pick in lefty Nick Lodolo, who will be making his tenth start on the year as he comes into today with a 3.42 ERA through his first 52.2 innings pitched.
Lodolo pitched against the Bucs twice last season, dominating them for 7 innings of 1-run ball on June 18th but saw the tables turn in his last game of the season as the Pirates piled on for 5 runs in 4.2 innings of work on August 22nd.
I have previously written about what the side-arm swinging Lodolo offers ahead of each these games (here and here) so this time, I want to talk about some interesting splits for the 27-year old southpaw.
There are two conflicting things to watch for in today’s game: First, Lodolo has struggled under the lights. His 4.08 ERA at night this season is nearly 3 runs higher than during the daytime mark of 1.38.
Across the board, Lodolo has shown a strange inability to perform in the evening as opponents are batting .261 against him at night compared to .156 during the day while 5 of his 6 home runs allowed have come after the sun has set.
It’s a small sample size but even looking to last year where he posted a 5.20 ERA at night over 72.2 innings or 2023 when he had a 9.87 ERA through 17.1 frames under the stars show that when the sun goes down, so can Lodolo.
On the other hand, Lodolo has a career 5.14 ERA pitching in Cincinnati (164.2 innings) compared to 3.38 in any other park (141). That’s the difference between being Roy Halladay (career 3.38 ERA) or Jordan Lyles (5.22 ERA).
Opposing hitters are slashing .187/.275/.307 in their home parks this season compared to posting a .293/.371/.492 line when Lodolo takes the ball to start the game.
Which side will win out in tonight’s matchup? Given the way the Pirates offense has performed thus far, I wouldn’t want to push in my chips on them quite yet but at least there’s an opening where they have potential to break through against an opposing starter.
Steel City Pirates 