5-22-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

We are 50 games into the season and now seems as good a time as any to review the pitching – the good, the bad and everything in between. I’m sure I will dive into the offense – or lack thereof – at a later date but the pitching is something where there are some clear high points, some clear low points and some places where maybe there is a bit of gray that we need to sort through.

The pitching collectively has a 3.97 ERA, which ranks 17th in MLB and is heavily weighted with a strong starting pitching group which holds a combined 3.68 ERA, which ranks 11th best, and have done so through 274 innings – the 5th most in MLB.

Much of the issues – as I will discuss – have been relegated to outlier problems that have either been resolved or need to shortly, but there is definitely a lot more to like than not so let’s dive in:

The Good

It’s easiest to start here and, as bad as some stuff has been, there have been some pretty clear highlights.

Paul Skenes

Skenes may not be striking out batters at the 33.1% clip he maintained last season but he’s still easily the best pitcher in the Pirates rotation. Through a team-high 62.2 innings pitched this season, he has a 2.44 ERA and 25.5% K rate with a 6.6% walk rate. His xERA (2.50) is actually slightly lower than last year (2.53) in part due to a lower batting average against (.190 from .197 last season) and WHIP (0.94 from 0.95 in 2024).

Skenes is still crazy dominant and just pitched his first career complete game on Sunday. It was only 8 innings and resulted in a loss but still demonstrated the ability Skenes has shown to adapt as he looks to continue recording outs but finding ways to do so more efficiently as part of his goal to eclipse 200 innings pitched this season.

Mitch Keller

While Keller is not nearly as dominant as Skenes, he is certainly putting the team in position to win nearly every time he’s out there. He got absolutely shellacked against the Yankees on Opening Day (which was also, unfortunately, Mitch’s 29th birthday) but since then has pitched 48.1 innings over 8 games to the tune of a 3.17 ERA.

Sure, he’s 0-5 in that span but that is mostly outside of his control as he has been successfully dispatching opponents each and every time he takes the ball as he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 5 of those starts, recording 40 strikeouts to 12 walks.

He’s the veteran of the staff and has proven himself more than capable day-in and day-out, and he is part of the building blocks for the foundation this team is creating for if and when they become a successful baseball operation once again.

Dennis Santana

The bullpen blowups over the past year were headlined by Colin Holderman and David Bednar but one consistent piece through it all was Santana, who came over from the Yankees as a waiver claim and posted a 2.44 ERA through 44.1 innings of work in 2024 – and even that is exacerbated by a June 15th game where he allowed 6 runs in a single inning of work at Colorado.

This season, he has exclusively been utilized as a high-leverage, late-inning reliever who is 5-for-5 in save opportunities and has a team-best 1.77 ERA and 0.79 WHIP through 20.1 innings of work and gets a crazy amount of chase on his breaking ball.

Santana’s slider averages around 86-87 MPH and it has an opponents’ batting average of just .138 with a 40.3% whiff rate. Opposing batters are chasing that pitch far more than his other offerings but his Chase rate of 40.2% is bested by only Graham Ashcraft (44.5%), Jeremiah Estrada (41.2%) and Gabe Spier (40.7%).

Hitters just can’t lay off his stuff and he is making it work for him. While he hasn’t been specifically positioned as the closer for this team, he is certainly making an argument that he should be the guy for the job.

The Bad

Our offensive woes have been downright dreadful providing a small margin of error for pitching across the board. We have suffered a handful of bullpen blowups earlier this season but there is a clear 1-1 when we’re drafting the bad rotation piece as it stands right now.

Carmen Mlodzinski

I hate this. I hate writing it. I hate thinking it. I truly believe that Mlodzinski has a great future in MLB ahead of him – I just don’t think it in any way, shape or form should be as part of the Pirates rotation.

Over the last two seasons working as a reliever – and, at times, an opener, Mlodzinski posted a 2.91 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate and .215 batting average against over a combined 86.2 innings pitched. Since transitioning to the rotation this year, he has a 5.61 ERA with a 15.6% K rate and .311 opponents’ batting average rate through 39.2 innings of work.

He has managed to pitch into the 6th inning exactly once thus far this season and finished 5 frames only 3 times through his 9 games. Whether that has been by intent or not, he is CLEARLY not successful in a starting role as his ERA first time through a lineup (1.35/20 innings) is significantly lower than successive turns as he has a 10.13 ERA in 16 innings 2nd time around and 9.82 ERA in 3.2 innings when facing hitters a third time.

He was just optioned in favor of Mike Burrows, who will at least temporarily replace him but moving to Indy indicates an intention of continuing to work him as a starter, and keeping him in the rotation is doing him no favors while putting stress on a bullpen where there are already numerous holes. This team needs to pull the ripcord on this starting experiment ASAP or else they should GTFO.

Colin Holderman

Holderman is broken. There’s no two ways about it. Dating back to July 28th, Holderman had pitched 28.2 innings, given up 28 runs (26 earned) with 21 strikeouts and 18 walks.

He was so dang dominant for long stretches over the past few years since being acquired from the Mets for Rowdy Tellez in 2022.

From his first appearance after joining the Bucs on August 2, 2022 to July 24, 2024, Holderman pitched 104.1 innings with a 3.36 ERA and solid 24.4% strikeout rate.

Unfortunately, he seriously struggled in save situations as he notched just 2 saves over 13 opportunities and has completely cratered this year even in low leverage situations as he has allowed runs in 9 of his 14 appearances in 2025.

Maybe a second IL stint helps him figure things out again, specifically with his previously dominant slider – against which opponents have hit .417 this season after only batting .163 against the offering last season. It was a big weapon for him but he’s just not effective right now and that pitch is a HUGE reason why.

Joey Wentz

It’s largely flown under the radar with the rash of other issues involving many of the other 25 members of the Pirates active roster but Joey Wentz, who has pitched the most innings of relief for the Bucs this season, is not good.

Yes, he started strong and has managed to allow just one earned run with 11 strikeouts through his first 11.2 innings/8 games but he also allowed 6 hits and 5 walks in that time and that has caught up on him since then.

In his last 9 games, he has a 9.31 ERA, 16 hits, 6 walks and 7 strikeouts through only 9.2 innings of work.

And it’s not just raw data saying he’s bad. His average exit velocity of 92.5 MPH places him in the 4th percentile (per BaseballSavant) among all MLB pitchers – and this is with a fastball that averages barely a mile more than that at 93.9.

There are plenty of solid options for relieving – specifically either for long relief or lefty specialists – that the team should look to either limit usage of Wentz or cut bait with him because he is going to be dead-weight in that pen and, with how this offense is performing, they seriously can’t afford it.

The Mixed Bag

Not all of the pitchers are really bad and not all of the pitchers are super good. Sometimes, they put together an elite start that has fans calling for an immediate extension, and sometimes, they put together an outing that reminds you why this team is hurtling towards a 100+ loss season.

Bailey Falter

I will admit, I am biased as I have written previously that I do not believe in Falter but am always happy when he manages to come through with a clutch performance – or, as has been the case lately, a string of clutch performances as Falter is currently riding a 21 inning scoreless streak and has allowed just one run in this last 23.2 innings pitched.

He’s not going to blow batters away with velocity or rack up a ton of strikeouts but he has elite extension and is VERY tough to hit when his stuff is on. That said, when his stuff is not on, he can get hit very hard and very often, including a pair of games against the 2024 World Series participants (New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers) in which he allowed a combined 14 runs over just 8 innings pitched.

Now these are too very good offenses and we shouldn’t expect him to keep either of those squads at bay; however, they’re more a sign of teams who execute when Falter plays with fire than just an unfortunate one-off – or, I guess two-off – that wouldn’t be expected again.

There’s just not a great place to slot Falter, especially with his iffy strikeout rate (18.2%) and pretty high walk rate (8.4%). He’s been really great a bunch of the time and absolutely lousy on other occasions. If he can keep being serviceable like he has the past few weeks, I will certainly pull back my criticisms on the surging southpaw but I wouldn’t push chips in on sustained success for him quite yet.

Andrew Heaney

I may need to just call this the “Southpaw Section” because we are adding Heaney to this mix. I was ecstatic when the Bucs announced that they signed Heaney this offseason because he felt like someone who would fit in extremely well with the Pirates. Additionally, he very much fit the mold of a veteran lefty signed to a 1-year deal to likely be flipped at the deadline a la Tyler Anderson and Jose Quintana, among others.

And out of the gate, Heaney did not disappoint. Through his first five starts, Heaney posted a 1.72 ERA through 31.1 innings pitched and had 31 strikeouts to just 6 walks. Unfortunately, his next four starts were much less rosy – 19.1 innings pitched, 5.12 ERA with 7 strikeouts and 13 walks.

I started writing this prior to Wednesday’s game and he managed to post a solid outing overall in spite of only 9 whiffs against a fairly whiff-happy hitting squad in the Reds but it is starting to feel like the magic may be waning on the Heaney Express.

His exit velocity over the first 5 games was 88 MPH with a hard hit rate of 34.2% and a 6.3% barrel rate – all very good numbers that you love to see, but he also had a .218 BABIP which has jumped to .258 in the next 4 outings, partly as a result of his 91.2MPH average exit velocity, 45.7% hard hit rate and 12.9% barrel rate.

Maybe this is just the league adjusting to him and he needs to adjust back or maybe it’s a sign that the flash-in-the-pan of the early season is unlikely the reality of who we will see from the veteran lefty every fifth game.

David Bednar

I think a lot of fans wrote Bednar off before the start of the season, and the cries only got louder as the struggles reemerged with losses in two of his first three appearances this year but – and I mean this in the most unbiased way it can possibly sound – Renegade is SO back!

Ok, that didn’t sound unbiased at all and there’s a reason that Bednar is in this category. As of this writing, he has a 5.02 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP through 14.1 innings pitched. That is obviously very bad; however, 3 of his 8 earned runs were in his first two appearances and he has not allowed an earned run in 11 of his 17 appearances thus far this year.

I know, that’s a low bar, but when it was almost every other outing the last few months of 2024 when he would be surrendering runs left and right, this is great to see – especially when you see that he’s back to getting the kind of red on his ledger that we had come to expect during his All Star years: 33.3% strikeout rate, 32.2% whiff rate, 4.8% walk rate with a fastball that touches 99 and a curve that has brought its sharp break back to the game.

Again, he’s got a long ways to go before we look to move him up a tier but, at the very least, fans have to be happier with how he looks now than he did at basically any point since last August.

The Unexpectedly Solid Relievers

Each year, basically every team with a payroll that isn’t equivalent to the GDP of Micronesia will look to sign pitchers to minor league deals or spring training flyers hoping that they could show something that would indicate that they can help the team win games once the real season begins.

The Pirates, obviously, are no exception to that as they have long admired the waiver wire and bargain bin for low-cost trades and cheap signings of pitchers to supplement depth and, at times, find the rare diamond in the rough. And, regardless of how it happens, it’s great to have a player you didn’t expect to perform well – or, at least, not as well, to come out as one of your better pieces in the pen.

Caleb Ferguson

The southpaw Ferguson was signed to a 1-year, $3M deal this past offseason and, while he was told there was a chance he could see opportunities as a starter if he performed well. That starting option hasn’t come to pass yet – as many likely figured – but he has been mostly excellent in relief.

While he has had three appearances this month where he allowed 2+ runs in < 1 inning, he has also been running off a number of outings where he doesn’t allow any hits or even walks most of the time.

Ferguson has pitched 21.1 innings this season and appeared in 23 games – the most of anyone on the team – posting a 4.22 ERA but with a much more solid 3.34 FIP and a strong 1.20 WHIP. Of those 23 appearances, 13 of them did not result in a batter getting a hit against him and only one time did he allow more than 3 baserunners in an appearance.

His biggest feature is that he avoids barrels and generates weak contact. No, strike that, he generates the WEAKEST of contact. His hard hit rate of 22.4% and average exit velocity of 82.4 MPH are among the best in all of MLB and that certainly makes him a valuable asset out of the pen.

Chase Shugart

Acquired from the Red Sox this past offseason, Shugart has thrown 20.2 innings for the Pirates with a resounding 2.61 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP through 18 appearances.

Like Ferguson, Shugart relies on soft contact over missing bats as his average exit velocity (85.4 MPH) is also among the tops in MLB but, as nice as this level of success has been, it is likely unsustainable given his low strikeout (16.3%) and high walk (11.3%) rates coupled with an impossibly low .196 BABIP.

He’s going to regress and it’s going to likely happen really fast and hit really hard but until then, let’s just enjoy what Shugart has to offer.

Ryan Borucki

Technically, Borucki is in his third year with the Bucs after breaking out with a 1.4 bWAR season in 2023 where he tossed 40.1 innings with a 2.45 ERA but injuries sidelined him for much of 2024 and when he did finally return, the results were awful as he posted a 7.36 ERA through 11 frames last year.

Resigning with the team ahead of 2025 has proven fruitful for both sides as Borucki has appeared in 19 games for the Pirates with a solid 3.57 ERA and more than solid 0.96 WHIP through 17.2 innings of work.

Feel like a broken record in this section but – say it with me – Borucki gets weak contact. His average exit velocity of 85.3 MPH is in the 97th percentile and his barrel rate is just 4.4%. Additionally, he generates ground balls like nobody’s business.

Among pitchers with at least 50 batters faced this season, Borucki ranks 6th in ground ball rate with a staggering 66.7%. Given that he is coupling that with extremely weak average contact, this seems like a fairly solid bet that he should maintain this level of production moving forward.

Final Thoughts?

Maybe we make too much of coaching changes but, since Don Kelly took over as skipper of the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 9th, the rotation has posted an MLB-best 1.70 ERA over 68.2 innings pitched so he is clearly watching to ensure that these guys aren’t over-extended and waiting too long to pull the trigger. At the same time, we have had numerous issues with the bullpen over that same stretch (5.11 ERA through 37 relief innings) so it’s still a work-in-progress.

This pitching is overall not great but it’s really not bad either. There are pieces in the wrong roles and players who maybe shouldn’t have a role on this or any team (too harsh?) but big picture, they’re moving in the right direction and the successes would be much more magnified if the hitting could just muster more than a few runs each week.

What do you think about the Pirates pitching currently? Are they on the right track or is hitting not the only issue plaguing this scuffling squad? Let us know in the comments!