2 Guys Talkin’ Trades A Keller of a deal?

5-24-25 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on X

Justin Verno- A trade rumor that involves a Pirate…in May? Corey, this is like Christmas in…well, May. I guess.

Corey Shrader- You know, writing these pieces is usually a fun exercise in looking across the league and trying to connect dots. But the feeling of “needing to” do this so early on is kind of deflating, JV.

JV- It’s like eating a banana before it’s ripe–a tad bitter and not nearly as sweet. And hey, @mlbscoops isn’t exactly a bastion of integrity when it comes to these kinds of things, but if we’re connecting dots and all of that, this rumor makes sense and it makes sense the Baltimore Orioles would want to move fast. 

Grayson Rodriguez is still out, though it sounds like he will start throwing again soon. Kyle Bradish is likely out for the season, or at least the bulk of the year. The O’s rotation hasn’t been great and if they don’t improve that rotation and fast, the season will be gone with…wait for it…the birds. 

CS- The O’s are in such dire straits that it is almost difficult to believe. Far be it from a Pirates fan to dunk on how a team is run, but, yikes. A champagne lineup with a Bud Light pitching group. Even with the return of GrayRod, it may be too little, too late in Charm City. 

Despite the match looking too good to be true, I believe there could be other teams that would want to jump into the fray here as well.

JV- Before we get into what Mitch Keller’s value could be and if it would make any sense to move the controlled starter, I want to take a moment to look at what Mitch Keller brings to any team that will be looking at him. 

If there’s one thing I’d say about Keller it’s this: he gives the team a chance to win, and he does this more than his numbers suggest. 

In 2025, Keller has thrown 58 innings over ten starts. In eight of those outings he’s given up three or less earned runs. In one of those two starts he gave up four runs over five innings. Now about that last outing?  He gave up seven over 3.2 innings.  Take out that outing and the ERA drops to 2.99 (from 3.88) and yeah, I get he still started that game. My point being in the eight other starts he was solid and that’s kinda become his thing. 

Don’t believe me? Let’s take a look at his 31 starts in  2024. 

Starts-31  Innings-178  Runs- 84 

23 of those runs came over three games(12.1 innings). Just taking out those twelve innings his ERA goes from 4.25 to 3.33. 

Corey, every team that is considering adding Keller has had their analytics team devour his numbers and they are all aware of the overall consistency that Keller adds to a rotation.  If the Bucs are willing to listen on Keller, they will likely have a good deal of interest from teams that need pitching.

CS- The decision from Pittsburgh to move Keller would make some sense in some ways for sure. I am a little hesitant to be excited about the idea. Given his control & what I believe to be a relatively high “floor,” it is not a move to make for the thrill of it or without the proper type of return. Keller has morphed into what I believe to be an underappreciated piece for this ballclub.

Since entering the rotation in a full-time capacity (2022-2025) Keller has posted the 14th most IP (583.1) & made the 13th most starts (102) of any starter in baseball. Across those 583.1 frames he has turned in the 29th highest fWAR (8.7), currently tied with the likes of Hunter Greene, Zach Eflin, & Ranger Suarez. Furthermore in those innings he has a 4.11 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 4.04 SIERA, & 562 strikeouts. All of this to say; the free agent market cost for a rotation piece with comparable ability/output would be, I believe, prohibitive for a team that operates the way the Pirates do. 

Keller is inked through 2028 & firmly in his “prime.” He might not be an ace – but he sure looks the part of an effective starting pitcher. Take a look around the league at the starting 5 (or 6) of most clubs. Those do not grow on trees. Should this front office (or the next one) explore dealing Mitch Keller, they need to be wary of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

JV- Now let’s get to Keller’s Surplus Value. Keller’s contract is up in 2029. The remaining balance on Keller’s contract, which expires after the 2028 season, is $63.5 Million. 

 

These are strange numbers considering Keller’s WAR the last two seasons.  A WAR of 3.3 in 2023 and 2.2 in 2024 and that he is on pace for a 3.0 WAR this year. 

CS- There does seem to be a fair amount of regression built into the projections for Keller here. Some regression is reasonable to expect, but what we are seeing on ZiPS feels like a bit much to me.

JV- We agree that Keller should have a higher projection.  So how high do we go here? Simple answer is we don’t have to get carried away. I think a modest bump will do. 

I think $22-25M fits the bill here? 

CS- That is a range that I feel comfortable working in, JV. Let’s get to it.

JV- This piece is a little different form the usual ones we write up. First off it’s that banana that isn’t ripe yet. Normally we don’t start these for another month; we wait for the banana to turn that perfect shade of yellow. Secondly, it’s in response to a specific rumor that’s out there. 

The rumor is that the Baltimore Orioles are interested in Mitch Keller. With that in mind, using the O’s in this piece has to happen. I’ll step forward and bite the bullet on that package.

On the surface, The Bucs and O’s seem to be a match made in heaven. Peanut butter and chocolate. The Bucs need bats and the O’s need pitching. Perfect set up? Right. 

A year ago and this makes almost too much sense. So how about now? Don’t hate me for this, but I’m not so sure it is. 

At this time last year, the O’s had a few bats that I don’t think will be available at this point. Like 25 year old OF Colton Crowser. Or 1B Colby Mayo, the heir to 1B once Ryan Montecaslte is either traded or it’s simply time to make the switch. 

The obvious bat here is one Heston Kjerstad. And I do think this could be the piece that gets the trade done. But moving a starter as steady as Keller for a bat that has slashed  .231/.303/.382 with a wRC+ of 96 in 92 games in the majors is a gamble. And if we are all of us being honest, we seem to have enough bats that just haven’t hit to their pedigree. Is adding one more really the move we need? 

My vote? Three team deal!

O’s get-

Mitch Keller-SP-(SV-$25M) 

O’s add the ‘much more reliable than you think’ Keller.  

Blue Jays get-

Termmar Johnson-2B- ETA:2027- FV 50(SV-$21M)

Normally we go with Fangraphs FV. But TJ is having a strong season in AA. Slashin .263/.364/.423 with a wRC+ of 129. He’s taking his walks. His K rate is 17.1%. A very good showing for the 20 year old that should have him in AAA. 

Jud Fabian-(From the O’s)ETA:2027 -FV 40+(SV-$4M)

Besides sharing a name, well a nickname with me,  Jud is an interesting bat. One that  I can see the Bucs wanting to keep in this deal. But with that power swing comes some question marks. He has a propensity to swing and miss. Still a solid piece in this deal. 

Liver Pegeuro-SS/2B-ETA: debuted(SV-$10-15M est)

Peggy hasn’t been able to earn a second look with the major league club. However his power is looking pretty decent down in AAA and his OBP is a solid .333. Why have I included him in this package? 

Pirates get-

Bo Bichette-SS-(SV-$22M)

OK, yes. I get that this is flawed. It’s ‘not happening’. It’s ‘unrealistic’. And so on. 

To start with, we aren’t even sure if the Jays will sell or buy. Secondly, they could be trying to extend Bichette as you read this though I have to think that ship has sailed. Lastly, even if they do sell, Bichette is a free agent at the end of the season.  I realize all of this. 

Fact-this is the type of player the GM Ben Cherington needs to add. This is the spark that the fan base needs. The owner can then ignite a fire in the fan base by immediately announcing an extension for Bichette. 

I know I make that sound easy. But this is the type of deal GMBC NEEDS if he wants to keep his job. This is the kind of deal that the owner needs to get the fans butts back in the bleachers.

Vance Honeycutt-OF- ETA:2027- FV 45(SV-$6M)

I loved this kid coming out of North Carolina. There are chase tendencies here but the power is legit. If Toronto insisted on Honeycutt over Fabian I think that’d be a wash, though the kid from UNC has the higher upside. 

Pick 31(Comp pick A) from Baltimore

To even out the Keller deal a comp pick or a “lotto ticket” would be needed to round out the trade. Being that GMBC has drafted pitchers well this seems a perfect way to wrap that deal up as high school arms are nice compensation pick targets. 

CS- CS- For my proposal Pittsburgh will be reaching out to the Houston Astros. Houston is in something of a transition phase. Their Championship core is nearly all gone. A rapidly aging Jose Altuve and the oft-banged up slugger & superstar, Yordan Alvarez, is nearly all that remains. Despite this turnover of talent, the Astros find themselves still among the best clubs in the AL West. 

As a side note – this probably seems unheard of for Pirates fans. Imagine having an organization run so well that you could; lose a true megastar in Kyle Tucker, let long-time star Alex Bregman walk in free agency, & have your surrounding core mostly churned off. And STILL be a great ball club. Hard to believe, but it can happen, folks.

Anyway, here is what I’d be looking for in a Keller to Houston move:

Astros get: Mitch Keller, SP ($25 SV)

Pirates get: Jacob Melton, CF, 50 FV ($28 SV)

Earlier I mentioned that moving Keller would require, in my mind, a return that is specific to an immediate need. I believe that Jacob Melton meets that requirement. He is plug & play for this club. He is a terrific athlete and capable of playing center field or right field. In short – he is big, strong, fast, & essentially MLB ready.

The main downsides with Melton are that he has been injury prone. Missing time twice in 2025 with minor, nagging injuries. His time on the field, limited to only 11 games, has been strong. Boasting some fun small sample batted ball & discipline data:

EV: 95.4

90th: 107.6

MAX: 110

HardHit%: 53.3%

wOBA: .395

xDamage: .474

z-Con%: 92%

Con%: 80%

SwStr: 8.3%

Again, this is some fun with a small sample size. But the numbers are not that inconsistent with his 2024 performance in AAA. Imagining an outfield with Melton/Cruz/Reynolds is pretty fun too! 

Houston is slightly deficient in MLB level starting pitching. They’ve found some success with Ryan Gusto as a backend option, but Mitch Keller would provide them with a much, much steadier mid-rotation proven arm. Plugging Keller in between aces like Hunter Brown & Framber Valdez adds a level of stability that would lessen the burden on the fringe arms they’re using. The Houston rotation of Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Framber Valdez, Mitch Keller, & Ronel Blanco is pretty darn solid.

Putting a bow on it

JV- Two very different approaches here for sure. Clearly I got a little stupid with mine. That was not a  mistake. Moving a controlled pitcher like Keller? As consistent as Keller? You need a certain return. If GMBC(or whoever is pulling the strings for the trade deadline) is moving Mitch Keller it can’t be for pocket change.

Does moving Keller make sense? It sure can. If the line up isn’t better the next day, it makes no sense. But, if they can leverage a controlled arm for a productive bat then they just aren’t in the position to say no.

In fact, Corey, we can make the argument that this IS the model the organization has been trying to achieve or at least SHOULD be trying to achieve. Getting to a point where there’s a Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Braxton Ashcraft and a Hunter Barco waiting for that phone call. 

The same one that Michael Burrows just got. That he needs to pack his bags and join the boys in the ‘Burgh.  Making Mitch Keller a moveable asset. Making Andrew Heaney a movable asset. Using those assets to fill immediate needs and get this ship sailing on the high seas.

CS- It feels like we have been angling for this front office to trade from its pitching depth for nearly 2 seasons at this point. Good teams require pitching depth. Looking around the league you see it year in, year out. It is my belief that this Pirates club falls short of being a good team. What they do have is a very high end pitching development system & a well laid base of rising pitching talent.

Whether or not they trade Mitch Keller or one of Harrington, Ashcraft, Burrows, or Barco the goal should be to bring back assets that fill otherwise vacant spots in the big club. I understand the hesitancy to do so. Having depth to draw from when you need it (and every team needs it at some point of the season) is crucial. But to get over the hump from even nearly-good to good/contending requires a more complete team than the one they currently have. It will be quite interesting to see how filling these gaps is approached. If spending free agency dollar capital is not within the realm of possibility, you most likely need to spend prospect and/or player capital to achieve those ends.

JV- There’s depth and there’s deeeeeepth. The Pittsburgh Pirates have done one thing right under this regime. Identify and develop arms. I agree depth is an absolute must for any team, specifically pitching. We’ve seen the need as recently as this week. Jared Jones needed surgery. Carmen Mlodzinsky struggles in his renewed role? Call up Michael Burrows.  The team is still waiting on Johan Oviedo.

When the depth becomes deeeeeepth it should point to one thing, making a move to add something to fill the voids. Now it’s time for this front office and this owner to do a thing.

Get some damn offense, please.