5-27-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
After being shutout for the MLB-worst ninth time yesterday, the Bucs look colder than cold and have a tough task ahead of them as they face former Cy Young winner, Corbin Burnes.
Burnes is in his first season with the Diamondbacks after signing a 6-year, $210M deal this past offseason but the Bucs are plenty familiar with the long-time Brewer, who has faced off with Pittsburgh 11 times previously and has a 3.53 ERA over 81.2 career innings against the Pirates during his time in the NL Central.
Traded from Milwaukee last offseason, Burnes had a successful contract year with the Baltimore Orioles, posting a 15-9 record and a 2.92 ERA through 194.1 innings with an All Star appearance and 5th place Cy Young finish.
He had a sluggish start to his DBacks campaign as he allowed 13 runs over his first 21.1 innings of work as he adjusted to the new park, teammates and division.
Over his last five starts – two of which were against the powerhouse LA Dodgers – Burnes has rebounded in spades as he pitched 31.1 innings with a 1.44 ERA and 34 strikeouts over that stretch.
While Burnes is currently pacing for a typical year (2.73 ERA over 52.2 innings), the underlying metrics indicate there likely is some regression on the horizon.
For example, Burnes is walking opponents at a higher rate than at any time in his career (10.6%) and his WHIP has subsequently followed as his 1.18 WHIP – while very good – is his highest since 2019 when he was almost exclusively pitching in relief.
His xERA (3.93), FIP (4.04) and xFIP (3.72) are all at or among his worst full season marks while his average exit velocity (90.6 MPH) and barrel rate (8.6%) are substantially higher than last season (87.5 MPH and 6.7%, respectively) making his .246 BABIP less sustainable than it would have been in years past.
Looking at his pitch mix, Burnes is a rare case where he opts to throw his cut-fastball as his primary offering (53.6%) in the mid-90s, a pitch which replaced his ineffective 4-seam in the shortened 2020 season to great success.
He complements it with a low-80s curve/high-80s changeup down and away against lefties and pivots to a mid-90s sinker/high-80s slider when facing righties, working the sinker down and in while locating the slider low and off the plate outside in these instances.
Only his curve has expected values higher than his base numbers so lefties should try to avoid chasing the pitch but targeting the cutter in (.284 xBA for LHH) or hanging changeups (.325 xBA). On the other side of the plate, righties should focus on the sinker down and in (.317 xBA) or just look to attack the cutter (3 home runs and a .515 SLG against the pitch.
Righties have been having more success against Burnes with a .703 OPS compared to .606 for left handed hitters but his career numbers are more even (.603 OPS against LHH/.623 OPS vs RHH) so it’s more about targeting specific pitches and trying to make the most of mistakes.
Burnes has been able to outperform his expected numbers in the past but, sooner or later, Father Time comes for all. If the Bucs can bust out of their offensive rut and put some fire in their bats, maybe it can be Corbin feeling the burn tonight.
Steel City Pirates 