5-28-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
After an improbable comeback victory last night, the Pirates will look to keep the good vibes rolling today as they send Paul Skenes to the mound to face Zac Gallen.
Just two years removed from being a Cy Young finalist, Gallen has tumbled quite a bit statistically, entering today with a 5.25 ERA, 1.36 WHIP with 10 home runs and an NL-leading 29 walks and 36 earned runs allowed.
Gallen picked up the win against the Bucs last time they faced each other on July 26th, allowing just 3 runs off 5 hits, 3 walks and 1 hit batter while striking out six.
Over his 11 starts so far, Gallen has allowed 3 or more runs in 7 of them but despite having the 3rd worst ERA among qualified starting pitchers in the NL, he has a solid-not-spectacular 4.27 xFIP which could indicate some poor luck overall.
That said, the underlying metrics aren’t favorable for Gallen returning to his ace form as he is essentially average or below average in nearly every observable category.
Gallen’s pitch mix primarily consists of a low-90s 4-seam and a looping knuckle-curve which sits around 81. He adds in a changeup, slider and cutter that all average mid-to-high-80s.
While Gallen hasn’t seen a drop in velocity, his fastball is becoming less and less effective at missing bats as his strikeout rate on the offering has dropped from 27.9% in 2022 to 18.3% this season. His curve, on the other hand, continues to be nearly unhittable with a 50% K rate on the season thus far.
The caveat on that is that much of those strikeouts – as seen above – are the result of hitters chasing under the zone. And when opposing hitters are able to identify and spit on the pitch (15.6% walk rate on the offering), he basically has nothing else.
Hitters today will want to target the fastball and watch for early spin/movement to lay off the curve. He’ll throw the fastballs up and the breaking/offspeed down but the path to success is taking walks when you can but if you’re seeing red, be ready to attack.
Steel City Pirates 