5-30-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
We finally saw what happens when everything is clicking for this Pirates offense as they scored 19 runs over the final 13 innings of the series against the Diamondbacks. If they can get even close to that level of production, with this pitching, they’ll have a chance in any game. They will start off with a tough foe out of the gate in Nick Pivetta, who enters play tonight with a 5-2 record, 2.72 ERA and 63 Ks in 56.1 innings of work this season.
I wrote about Pivetta previously a few weeks ago before the Padres switched to start Stephen Kolek so let’s cover the BIG parts here:
First of all, Pivetta has some drastic home/away splits. Now, it logically follows that he would find more success leaving the hitter-friendly confines Citizens Bank or Fenway Parks, and moving to a home run-suppressing stadium like Petco.
After all, Pivetta has allowed 20+ long-balls in each full season (2020 excluded) and ranked 5th in home runs among all pitchers since his debut in 2017 – and, among those names ahead of him, no one was accomplishing the rate of round-trippers as efficiently as Pivetta.
By contrast, moving to the west coast has clearly provided the correct environment for Pivetta to succeed as his home ERA (1.44) is nearly three runs better than his away mark (4.32) as he has allowed twice as many home runs outside of San Diego in less innings pitched.
On the season, he has allowed more than 3 earned runs once (oddly, against the offense-deficient Colorado Rockies on 5/11) but in 6 of his 10 games has pitched 6+ innings with 1 or less runs allowed.
He’s among the best in MLB for both WHIP and batting average against so getting on base against him will be a challenge if the team can’t continue their momentum from the series in the southwest.
As mentioned before, Pivetta works an arsenal that uses a low-90s 4-seam fastball with a high-70s curve against lefties while mixing a low-80s sweeper and high-80s cutter as his main secondaries when facing righties.
Looking at specific matchups, lefties should look to attack Pivetta’s hanging curve. I typically advise hunting heat, especially when it’s thrown as frequently as is the case here (54.5%) but lefty opponents are batting a staggering .093 against Pivetta’s heater while striking out 19 times against the pitch. On the other hand, his curve has a .229 oBA but a .299 xoBA with a whiff rate nearly half of what the fastball generates (14.3% compared to 27.7%).
Righties likely should hold to the heater up as they are batting .260 and slugging .500 against the offering, which Pivetta has typically located middle-up in the zone.
The strategy and venue may be changing but the goal is still the same. Pivot to finding ways to do damage against this starter because the Padre bullpen is much more effective that what we saw from the DBacks in the desert.
Steel City Pirates 