6-3-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
While the Pirates and Astros don’t face off nearly as often as they did when Houston was still part of the National League Central Division, there’s still the undertones of rivalry among the two teams who have faced off 715 times previously with the Pirates claiming victory in 369 of those matchups.
Injuries have hampered the Astros on both sides of the ball as they have six starting pitchers and five outfielders (including perennial MVP contender, Yordan Alvarez) on the Injured List. In addition to their injury woes, the Astros have also seen underperformance from newly-minted left fielder Jose Altuve and main offseason signing Christian Walker (both -0.4 bWAR).
Despite the odds, the Astros continue to compete as they are just half a game back in the competitive American League West and, while the Pirates are perhaps a bit further back than that in the NL Central, they have some favorable matchups in the series that will be fun to watch.
6/3
Astros: Lance McCullers Jr. 0-1, 18.1 IP, 5.89 ERA, 26 Ks/11 walks, 1.69 WHIP
Pirates: Paul Skenes 4-5, 75.1 IP, 2.15 ERA, 77 Ks/ 18 walks, 0.92 WHIP
6/4
Astros: Ryan Gusto 3-2, 39 IP, 4.62 ERA, 42 Ks/19 walks, 1.56 WHIP
Pirates: Mike Burrows 0-1, 8.1 IP, 8.64 ERA, 5 Ks/4 walks, 1.56 WHIP
6/5
Astros: Framber Valdez 5-4, 78 IP, 3.12 ERA, 73 Ks/24 walks, 1.06 WHIP
Pirates: Mitch Keller 1-7, 70 IP, 3.72 ERA, 56 Ks/19 walks, 1.26 WHIP
Astros: Jeremy Peña – After earning a World Series MVP in his rookie season, expectations were sky-high for the Astros shortstop following the 2022 campaign where he posted a 5.0 bWAR with 22 home runs over 136 games. Unfortunately, while he posted strong follow-up seasons (3.9 bWAR in 2023 and 4.1 bWAR in 2024), the power dropped precipitously with a sub-.400 slugging percentage each year. This season, however, the successor to Carlos Correa has refound his power stroke as he has hit 9 home runs including 3 in just the last week. And he’s doing this while playing plus defense at a premium position (4 outs above average/8 defensive runs saved) and without sacrificing his batting average as he is hitting .309 on the season and has just a 13.6% strikeout rate.
Pirates: Andrew McCutchen – Continuing to defy Father Time, Cutch has been on a tear over the last two weeks as he secured at least one hit in 9 of his last 10 games while slashing .351/.467/.568 over than span. His recent milestone home run with the Pirates further cemented his legacy to this franchise but that hasn’t – and won’t – stop him from continuing to produce day-in and day-out.
Astros: Isaac Paredes – Over his last six games, Paredes has just one hit (a single) while striking out six times and only walking once. He had a strong start to his Astros tenure with 11 home runs over his first 219 plate appearances after notching 19 through 641 times to the plate last season between Tampa and Chicago and has been prone to prolonged slumps and surges so it would behoove the Pirates to keep his bat ice cold for a few more days, at least.
Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes – I hate to pile on Ke and he did have two hits this past series which drove in runs but he also had an 0-for-4 night with 4 strikeouts so it’s been a rough road for him. Dating back to May 16th, Hayes is batting .125 with only one extra base hit over 62 trips to the dish. He is still providing value with the glove but even that is to a lesser extent as his 5 Defensive Runs Saved this season ranks 4th in MLB among third basemen.
Astros: Spencer Arighetti, Ronel Blanco, J.P. France, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Hayden Wesneski, Yordan Alvarez, Zach Dezenzo, Pedro Leon, Chas McCormick, Taylor Trammell
Pirates: Colin Holderman, Jared Jones, Justin Lawrence, Tim Mayza, Dauri Moreta, Joey Bart, Nick Gonzales, Enmanuel Valdez
Notes
- With the recent move to DFA reliever Tanner Rainey, there is now an opening on the active roster, which could clear the way for Dauri Moreta to return this week. Additionally, Nick Gonzales is similarly close to returning to the team as well.
- Most teams have a better offense at home than on the road but no one has a higher variance than the Astros who have a .761 OPS as a team at home (8th highest in MLB) compared to a .646 road OPS (5th lowest).
- The Astros relievers have a combined 3.53 ERA on the season, led by a bounce-back season from closer Josh Hader, who is 15-for-15 in save opportunities this year with a 1.44 ERA over 25 innings and setup man Bryan Abreu who – outside of two games against the Mariners this season – has been nearly untouchable. The Pirates struggled with the late-game play against the Padres and the Astros bullpen is comparable in that department.
Steel City Pirates 