6-4-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Following yet another shutout performance by the anemic offense, the Pirates will look to fill their sails tonight against rookie Ryan Gusto, who has a 3-2 record and 4.62 ERA through his first 39 MLB innings.
Gusto has been thrust into a starting role due to injury woes that have befallen Astros rotation and while he had been a lockdown member of the bullpen (0.93 ERA over 9.2 innings), he hasn’t been able to translate that success into his new position (5.83 ERA through 29.1 innings).
The 26-year old was never a top prospect in the Astros system after being selected in the 11th round of the 2019 draft out of Florida Southwestern State College but performed well post-draft as he posted a 1.84 ERA over 14.2 innings.
Unfortunately, his development was derailed due to the cancelled Covid season of 2020 and then missing all of 2021 due to requiring Tommy John Surgery.
Despite the setbacks, Gusto progressed quickly after his recovery, collectively posting a 4.31 ERA over 363 minor league innings – including a 3.70 ERA through 148.1 frames with the AAA Sugar Land Space Cowboys in 2024, which earned him an end of season promotion, though his debut would have to wait until the following season.
Gusto has a high-angle delivery with a six-pitch mix that leans on his 4-seam fastball that reaches 97 MPH and resulted in 19 of his 41 strikeouts.
He will also add in a low-80s curve, high-80s cutter, low-80s sweeper, high-80s changeup and occasional sinker that sits 94.
Gusto attacks righties with heat, primarily going with his 4-seam, against which RHH are batting just .121 with a .188 wOBA. His secondary offerings have resulted in better results for opponents as his sweeper (.377 wOBA), cutter (.345) and sinker (.355) have all been much more hittable offerings with righties batting .333 or higher against each of these pitches.
Against lefties, Gusto dispatches the 4-seam/curve/changeup/cutter working the fastballs up with both of the curve and changeup down low or under the zone.
Unlike righties, lefties have been seeing Gusto much better overall as they are batting .300 against his fastballs and .308 against his breaking balls with the struggles coming against the changeup (.231 BAA).
Hitters today will want to watch for high heat as he throws fastball 66% of the time. Lefties should try to attack the 4-seam while righties may opt to hold off for his other offerings.
Two final things to watch for today: First, he’s most aggressive in the zone with no one on-base as all six of his home runs allowed have been solo shots and opponents are slashing .302/.375/.558 with bases empty compared to .225/.317/.282 with runners on base.
The last thing to watch for is how quickly Pirates hitters figure him out after they see him once. On the season, opponents are batting .263 first time against Gusto but it bumps to .315 second time around and .333 the third time they see him.
Figure out what he has working early in the at-bat, decide what you need to look for and be ready to attack them second time around. The team can’t put up another zero today with a much more foreboding opposing starter waiting to face them tomorrow.
Steel City Pirates 