6-18-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
After struggling to piece together much against Casey Mize yesterday, the Pirates will have an even tougher challenge today in defending AL Cy Young-winner, Tarik Skubal.
Selected 254 picks after yesterday’s starter in the 2018 MLB Draft, Skubal has been inarguably the best starting pitcher in MLB the past two years.
After missing time due to a flexor tendon injury which was surgically repaired in 2022, Skubal returned in July 2023 and since then has pitched 362.2 innings with a 2.38 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 31.5% K rate – all of which lead MLB in that time.
He swept Cy Young voting last season and finished 7th in AL MVP balloting after posting a 6.4 bWAR season and he has somehow been even better this year as he enters play today with a 7-2 record, 111 strikeouts through 90.1 innings with a 1.99 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP.
Oh, and he has allowed just one run over his last four starts and 30.2 innings pitched with 32 strikeouts and just 2 walks in that time.
So there’s good news and there’s bad news here. The good news is the Pirates only have to face Skubal once. The bad news is: he’s probably going to wreck this lethargic offense.
Opponents are batting just .196 against Skubal and his pitch mix consists of a high-80s changeup, a high-90s fastball (both a 4-seam and sinker) which has topped 103(!), a high-80s slider and an infrequent low-80s knuckle-curve – all of which grade as average-to-above average offerings and none of which have above a .230 batting average against.
Righties are hitting just .176 against his slider and .177 against his changeup with a 47% whiff rate. Skubal has thrown 385 changeups this season and only two of them resulted in extra-base hits (both doubles) and left-handed hitters are batting a whopping .000 against Skubal’s changeup.
The only real chance the Bucs have of doing anything today is staying on the 4-seam and sinker. Opposing righties are *only* whiffing at a 23.1% rate against his sinker and are batting .247 against his 4-seam – the best marks among any of his offerings for this split.
He tends to work up in the zone with both fastballs and drops down low for the off-speed/breaking balls. His stuff is darn near impossible to pick up and he’s made fools of much more potent offenses than what the Pirates will trot out tonight but stranger things have happened, right?
Right…?
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