6-22-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
When the Pirates had the 1st overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, there wasn’t a runaway favorite selection. Sure, there were some high-upside high school bats like Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawler but there were multiple outlets predicting the Pirates to take the Vanderbilt righty, Jack Leiter.
The Pirates ended up taking Henry Davis with 1-1 that year and, while the jury is still out on whether that was the right decision with his struggles to acclimate to the major leagues, the second overall pick hasn’t exactly latched on to success himself.
Since debuting last year, Leiter has a -1.7 bWAR with a 6.03 ERA over 97 innings pitched – among the worst in baseball over that stretch.
Leiter has been a bit better this season with a 4.40 ERA but the peripherals indicate he’s gotten a good bit of luck on the year.
His BABIP on the year is .237 (league average currently is .289) is down from .322 last season despite nearly identical hard hit rates (43.4% to 43.3%) and average exit velocity (91.2 MPH to 91.0 MPH) with an increased barrel rate (9.8% to 12.4%).
These factors, paired with a higher walk rate (11.6%, up from 9.8%), are main reasons why his underlying numbers like xERA and FIP project a regression for Leiter.
Leiter pitch mix consists of high-90s fastballs (4-seam and sinker), a high-80s slider and a low-90s changeup with a lesser-used curve that sits in the low-80s.
When facing lefties, he will dispatch a fairly even offering with his main pitches being the sinker, 4-seam and changeup while righties primarily see the slider/4-seam/2-seam combo in their at-bats.
He has been surprisingly more effective against lefties, holding them to a .591 OPS compared to .792 when facing right handed hitters; however, much of that can be attributed to bad luck as his expected numbers for all pitches in these splits are extremely skewed. In particular, his sinker xBA-BA difference is nearly 150 points while his xSLG-SLG is 355 points of difference.
Bucs batters will want to stay on the fastballs as even righties have had more success against Lieter’s heaters than his breaking stuff (.334 wOBA compared to .278 against his secondary offerings).
Take walks, attack heat and try to salvage the series with a Sunday victory.
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