6-23-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
Ben Cherington has embraced doing less with more. To a degree, every Pirates GM will have to do that, but there comes a point where you spend so much energy trying to reach mediocrity, you almost start to fool yourself into believing it’s a destination.
Part of a GM’s job is to help players perform, and part of it needs to be understanding talent when you see it, and moving out of the way. This is the aspect Cherington tends to fail. There’s such a focus in this franchise to reach the middle of the pack, it causes poor players to look up to being average, and it creates good players who try to apply the principles of the team and wind up sinking to the level they probably started higher than.
This GM needs to go, but it’s not just about picking players or trading for players, it’s about none of that mattering because at the end of the day, this guy is trying to create one player. A hitter who takes a bunch of pitches, swings hard at what he does swing at, and bluntly, it makes bad players passable and good players into mediocre contributors.
Lets Go!
1. “We Must Be Honest”
Really Ben Cherington? We must be honest? Cherington decided to show up for his Pirates run Q&A on 93.7 The Fan and here were his big quotes.
“I still believe the group of players we have in the organization currently is capable of playing winning baseball in 2025,” Cherington said. “I really still believe that. At the same time, it hasn’t happened yet. Not nearly consistent enough, and we have to be honest about that, too. We have to deliver more to our fans — bottom line. We know that.”
OK, So I’ve been told “we have to be honest” in the same sentence in which you’ve said you still believe this group of players is capable of playing winning baseball in 2025. We’ve now heard almost all of this, every single season since Ben Cherington took over. Thing is, we knew it was bullshit in 2020, 2021, 2022…, but it was supposed to be bad in those years, so it was pushed aside because, what’s he going to do, start saying everyone sucks?
So what is the plan at the deadline Ben?
“The goal will be to put more wins on the field as fast as we can,” Cherington said.
Yeah, no, it won’t be. As fast as you can would be this year. And we all, including you, know you won’t do that in 2025.
“It could be tweaks, it could be more than tweaks. I think that’s the open-minded part.”
Yes, the issue has been for sure that we haven’t been open minded. I’m glad that the moves we could make would be one of two options that anyone could define as the other.
“As much as I do believe there is a foundation here that gives us a chance to win sooner rather than later, there’s also the results. You have to be honest about, it might be tweaks, it might be more than tweaks to get us faster towards where we want to be.”
Year 6 of the rebuild, you believe in a foundation. The vast majority of which has been here for most of your time here. Faster, than what Ben? Faster than the 20+ years of losing the franchise did before they were actually competitive again over a decade ago?
Faster than you planned? Faster than what? We’ve also repeated the tweaks vs more than tweaks line which means absolutely nothing.
How the Pirates will handle this deadline, if you REALLY want to be honest is incredibly easy to cipher. They’ll be trading just about every guy on the last year of their deal with the exception of Cutch and those nobody wants. This certainly won’t lead to being “better faster” in 2025, even if they are good for the long term.
I guess I’d consider those “tweaks”.
“more than tweaks” well, that kinda has to be a player or players you weren’t planning on moving. In other words, guys you thought were part of that foundation who now need moved to change the actual construction of that foundation.
So on it’s face, you can’t both believe in that foundation, then turn around and change it.
More than anything, Ben is still talking like a guy who plans to win here at some point, not specifically next year, not even by 2028, just at some point all of his crazy smart work will pay off. All the things that haven’t come together or worked, will at some point work.
That’s a guy who either knows he’s not getting fired, or, completely unaware of how thin the ice he’s standing on happens to be.
I’d love for Cherington to be honest. I’d love to hear I don’t have the money to turn this around quickly, I wasn’t able to get us where I hoped under that constraint in a timely manner, now I need to change course and so does Bob or you’re going to be starting this whole thing over with a new Me very soon.
I truly would find it refreshing as hell to hear actual truth. We know it anyway, I just grow tired of hearing the same stuff repeatedly.
Lastly, I’d say if you truly do still believe in what you’ve built, all I can say is nobody in baseball agreed with you. Your fans didn’t agree with you. Some of your players didn’t believe you were right. Your manager was a complete cuck who allowed you to believe he believed, but you should very much so now know the new one doesn’t see your genius.
Liars can stop lying, but they probably struggle to ever really be trusted. Ben is like a cult leader who wrote a book about when the world would end and then has to find a way to keep his cult going after the date passed and his horde of kool-aid drinkers have some questions.
Move on from Cherington Now. It’s the only way to start the healing.
2. There is No Winning if THIS is Oneil Cruz
This season is not all on Oneil Cruz. He leads the team in a ton of statistical categories and he’s taken to Center field better than most expected, even if he still has hiccups out there on occasion.
In his last 30 games, he’s hitting only .190, getting on base at a .291 clip and he’s doing it while still batting leadoff.
Look, there’s no nice way to say this, if Oneil Cruz isn’t a star, this team is in trouble. They’ve got exactly 2 players who can truly star in this offense right now, in Cruz and Bryan Reynolds, but Cruz is THE guy who is supposed to provide most of the power. Cruz is the 5 tool player who is supposed to be electrifying the offense, sometimes carrying it himself, but always contributing.
Cruz averages 3.9 pitches per plate appearance.
With an 0-0 count this year, Cruz is hitting .419 with an OPS of 1.567
With an 0-1 count this year, Cruz is hitting .467 with an OPS of 1.467
With an O-2 count this year, Cruz is hitting .053 with an OPS of .106
Ahead in the count .266 average, OPS of .972
Behind in the count .125 average, OPS of .393
Even Count .250 average, OPS of .804
Look, everything here says Cruz needs to be swinging early, and often. But he’s not. He’s instead standing there, hitting lead off, taking pitches, working himself into trouble counts and failing to impact the baseball.
These stats aren’t universal. Some guys actually do better the more pitches they see, Cruz simply isn’t one of them, at least not at this point in his career.
In fact, no matter how many balls he sees, if he gets 2 strikes on him, meaning every iteration of 2 strike counts he’s hitting .085, with 99 K’s, 23 walks and a .348 OPS.
STOP ASKING HIM TO SEE PITCHES!
Be ready to hit the first thing you see in the zone, period. These numbers are so stark, it’s impossible to believe they haven’t changed anything here. At bat after at bat he takes strike one, maybe even two and then he goes about protecting the zone or trying like hell to work a walk.
Statistically, the AB is virtually over from the time he recorded strike 2.
This isn’t a leadoff hitter. He’s fast, and you want him to take a lot of at bats, that concludes the list of his qualifications to hit there.
The Proof is in the pudding, get Cruz back to being aggressive and you might get Cruz back, continue to ask him to be patient, you’ll always have this hope he becomes what you hyped, and you NEVER will.
This also happens to be the very best way to get him to cut down on K’s.
Nobody hits great with 2 strikes, but Cruz is an extreme example. This change should be easier to try than winning a bet on Ke’Bryan Hayes hitting 2 homeruns in a game.
3. Tommy Pham’s Eyes?!?
Honestly, a report came out that Tommy Pham has struggled to get the right contact lenses all season long to help him address his degenerative eye condition that he’s had for quite some time.
I have no doubt he has a condition, I have no doubt he’s struggled to get the right fit with prescription eyewear, but am I truly to believe suddenly this was actually a good signing?
Look, I get it. The dude has a problem, he’s been trying to fix it, I truly hope it helps him, but I’m sorry, this was never ever a good signing. I’m not sure I care about this from a Pirates perspective.
Especially if you’re telling me it’s almost July and just now they might have found the right prescription?
What?
Here’s Don Kelly talking about Pham Yesterday…
“He’s a pro,” Kelly said. “He’s an awesome teammate. He’s on the rail every single day, whether he’s starting or not. He’s always trying to get better and he’s helping other guys get better. … He works like he’s got 10 days in the big leagues, not 10 years.”
Who has he made better? Including himself?
Sincerely. Who in the world is performing well in the first place? Did he teach IKF to hit for contact?
Of everything that has happened this year, Pham is the thing I understand the least.
It was never a needle mover signing, it was painted as one immediately.
There have been excuses aplenty explaining why this guy who hasn’t done anything in quite some time isn’t doing anything this year…Again, as though it was a shock? The only people in baseball who thought Pham was a solid add here, work here.
Pardon me if I just want nothing to do with hearing about his friggin’ contact lenses here on June 23rd. I just don’t. If you wanted to come out with this in Spring by way of explaining how you possibly thought there was more there than he’d done in previous season because yinz figured out his eye care needs, OK, maybe that’s a nice angle way back then.
Now, I’m sorry it’s just not.
You’re to the point now where at best you’re taking your shitty car to the car wash before putting it on Craigslist, not the point where you’re trying to convince yourself to keep it.
4. THE Best Defender in Baseball
Bryan Reynolds praised Ke’Bryan Hayes for his defensive prowess with that exact statement. He’s the best defender in baseball.
I get it, I’m not here to argue the point. Bryan is right, Ke’Bryan Hayes is in my estimation the best defender in the game.
The question is, is that enough when you don’t have him surrounded with hitters. I mean, he’s having his best statistical season as a defender, but on this team, can you afford that?
I can and do appreciate things like this in baseball. And we’ve all seen teams force a bat in the lineup who can’t handle his position he’s been given. That’s often not good for the long term right?
So the Pirates have themselves an elite defender. Period. And that elite defender can’t hit. If this were 1984, he has long since slid to SS and everyone is happy.
At this point, Hayes is no longer capable of making that move, and in today’s game its almost unheard of to plant a glove at a corner infield spot.
The suggestions to trade Hayes aren’t because he’s a bad defender, they’re because we have a baseball team that simply can’t have glove only positions. If Spencer Horwitz winds up being a really solid first baseman but he never really catches on hitting, he won’t be here in 5 years.
If Nick Gonzales is really great at 2B and he never manages to mature as a hitter, he won’t be here in 5 years.
If they hadn’t extended Hayes, I honestly question if he’d still be here.
Feels like people want to make this potential trade of Hayes all about his bat, but to me it’s more about his health and bat. I feel lucky we’re getting a healthy Hayes, if only because it should make him movable.
If they don’t trade him, I’m afraid we’ll just have a spot in the lineup that doesn’t hit. I want them to move him to save themselves from what they’ve gotten themselves locked into, not because I think he’s an awful player.
On a playoff team with 6-7 hitters, Hayes can be himself and save runs, contribute the little he does and still be an integral part of the unit. On a team like this, he’s just another guy who can’t hit and sometimes a reason we lose 2-1 instead of 3-1.
5. Analytics are Not Your Enemy
Everyone knows Ben Cherington believes in analytics, and because of that, analytics have become some sort of bogeyman for way too many of you.
All teams use analytics, some just use them more wisely.
The first thing to know about analytics is that when you acquire new data, you should amend the outcomes. In other words, if some model told you Tommy Pham would hit 15 homeruns and murder left handed fastballs. Well, as you sit here in June, you should see, the 15 homeruns is a stretch, and he’s hardly murdering anyone let alone left handed fastballs.
Ben’s problem is, his analytics department told him what was possible or plausible and he can’t bring himself to admit it’s not anymore.
That’s a very simplified way to see what happens here.
They look at analytics. They believe the analytics. They assume irregularities brought on different outcomes from what they predicted.
It’s not even the department’s fault. They don’t stop generating new models, this GM just quits adapting. He takes the findings of the analytics department more as factual outcomes as opposed to plausible outcomes. So if analytics said Cruz should hit 45 homeruns this year and he’s got 30 in September, Ben will say something along the lines of “we feel he’s got more homeruns in there”.
In other words, Cruz didn’t do the best he could. Not that the model was off, or had no way of predicting how his lineup backers would do, or had no way to know all the pitchers he’d face, or the situations those at bats would come in.
These are miniature examples of a BIG machine, I’m simplifying it on purpose to help you understand, but importantly, I’m also pointing out, they have this stuff on every player.
Lastly, I’d say their formula is largely weighted toward the good much more than it should be. Say you think you need some number of runs to really compete this year. Arbitrary number like say 350 runs. All your analytics for individuals show you how the math should/could work out based on players getting X amount of at bats.
One of those players is Tommy Pham. He was supposed to help push say 40 of those runs across the plate. He’s produced next to nothing. The magic number for competitive still exists, even as he’s not touched his.
Ben just looks at this and says, well, Tommy will get those, just gotta keep playing. A normal manager would say, well, I missed big time on Tommy, it just isn’t there, lets move on.
Ben just sees it like July should be fire for him to hit those numbers.
Get it?
None of this makes analytics bad or unnecessary, it just makes them misapplied here in Pittsburgh, and more than anything trusted like someone doing a research paper with all references to Wikipedia.
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