6-25-2025 – By Jud Verno – @JV_Pitt on X and Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X
Justin Verno: Another early edition of 2 Guys Talkin’ Trades? This is getting out of hand. And with the Boston Red Sox moving Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants, the timing here feels right.
Corey Shrader: In late May, MLB Trade Rumors dropped something of a bombshell that stated Pirates ownership had personally said “no” to deals involving hometown closer, David Bednar. I think that the idea of Bednar being a tricky trade piece because of his Pittsburgh connection has permeated within the Bucs Twittersphere for some time. While there are no specifics on these theoretical moves, it does kind of help vindicate those people who have recognized some non-standard hurdles to a move involving The Renegade. This time around may not be so different, but it being out there openly now could mean otherwise.
JV: I haven’t read or even heard anything specific connecting teams to Bednar, but this is definitely worth exploring after that MLBTR tidbit. Us ignoring a rumor like that would be like Santa not reading his naughty list. Just something that us Two Guys Talkin’ Trades have to at least acknowledge.
CS: Yes. I believe that the appeal on the trade market for Bednar should still be there, specific mentions of interested teams or not. This type of public leak for behind the scenes information from a Front Office who typically does not let a lot of things out could be telling indeed.
JV: This won’t be the first time we’ve written something up on David Bednar and the possibilities of him being moved. However, this one does feel and hit differently and for a few reasons, Corey.
CS: This year’s iteration is strange! His uneven early season performance and subsequent AAA demotion are clouding the picture a bit, aren’t they?
JV: It sure has. But even with that, Bednar will be a name to watch at this year’s deadline. This is a prime example that bullpen arms – even ones as established as Bednar – are fungible.
That does not mean the Bucs won’t field calls on him. Bednar is humming along here(more on that soon).
First, let’s get into his value. And I think it needs to be said, being from the ‘Burgh and liking IC Light holds no value to teams calling on him.
The true value for Bednar is going to be hard to nail down as he is no longer seen as the automatic shut-the-door type of closer he was three seasons ago.
Bednar got off to a slow 2025 campaign and this followed a disastrous 2024.
CS: In previous Bednar trade proposals, the trade value was pretty consistently high. 2025’s version has seen that come down considerably.
JV: Here’s that Surplus value
| Year | ZiPS Projection |
| 2025 | 0.6(ROS) |
| 2026 | .9 |
| Total War | 1.1 |
| 9×1.1 | 9.9 |
| Payroll Est.: 10.1 | -0.2 |
So when looking at the formula, he’s close to a break-even guy. But there’s a caveat here, Corey. Back-end bullpen arms (closers and firemen) usually bring an overpay at the trade deadline. Setting realistic expectations is important with any Bednar return.
CS: When I look at David’s performance in 2025, I am more and more convinced that the projections are too light on him. Virtually all of the performance and underlying markers are showing that he is still a talented pitcher. Don’t you agree?
JV: I do. Since being recalled from his brief stint in AAA, Bednar has looked sharp. How sharp?
ERA: 2.03, FIP: 1.50, xFIP: 2.39, WHIP: 0.94
All while striking out 38 in 26.2 innings (with a K% of 36.9%)
Was it the brief stint in AAA? Was it a minor adjustment?
Who cares. What matters, for our purposes, is how he’s looked since that recall and how that can translate into trade value.
CS: The demotion & recall has really given me some pause in trying to assess just how to value Bednar myself. Does this deter other teams in any way? Does it even matter? Up above, I made reference to his underlying/peripheral numbers. These are the ones that really pop for me:
FIP: 2.20 (career best)
SIERA: 2.19 (career best)
K-BB%: 27.6% (career best)
GB%: 44.3% (career best)
There are several contending teams out there where Bednar would be the best RP in the bullpen from a talent aspect.
JV: In fact, as of writing this there were 25 teams still in the playoff hunt. 26 if you count the Baltimore Orioles who are 6.5 games out of a wildcard spot, granted with a record of 34-44. I’d say there are several teams who could be calling Ben Cherington (or whoever is making the calls this year).
A slight adjustment to his projections, a half a WAR per season, say? That would put him around a $10 million SV. Considering how Bednar has performed as of late, add in the general rule that back end relievers tend to bring an overpay; I think we could see more value than $10M. But fans shouldn’t expect a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow.
Let’s get to it.
CS: Let’s do it, JV.
As of writing, there are a lot of teams vying for playoff positioning. This seems like it would make for bountiful options when trying to trade a player but I found several roadblocks in doing so. Be it poor matches in what the Pirates might be looking for and/or “need” or just uneven fits when it comes to potential trade partners. Ultimately, I settled on one that could feasibly pass the smell test.
Corey’s Deal
The Phillies get-
David Bednar – SU/CL – MLB (SV – $10ish M)
The Pirates get-
Justin Crawford – OF/CF – AAA (40+FV $4.00M)
No, these figures do not match up but hear me out. I think each player is “worth” more than what $ figure we are getting by calculating pure SV.
As for Bednar, I laid out my case for him up above. I still think he is and should remain a good to very good back-end bullpen arm. The Phillies have some quality arms in their pen, but it is still a bit muddled. Orion Kerkering, Jordan Romano, & Matt Strahm are all quality arms, but they’ve been inconsistent in output. When you have championship aspirations and a championship caliber roster, adding another highly skilled and experienced bullpen arm is a great tool to holster in your toolbox.
Justin Crawford, in my opinion, is similarly undervalued at a 40+ FV. But working within the parameters of our methodology, he could be a fit here.
In AAA at just 21 years old, Crawford is more than holding his own. Currently slashing .336/.413/.429 with a .388 wOBA & a 130 wRC+. One of his major flaws is that the game power is largely untapped as he sports a .092 ISO. He does however boast a strong .842 OPS with some encouraging batted ball markers hinting at future development (110.6 MAX EV and 103.2 90th% EV).
The power is dragged down by sub-optimal launch angles at just 2.3 degrees on average, that in turn leads to astronomical ground ball rates (64.2%). He is able to run such a high batting average and on-base percentage due to his top-of-the-scale speed. This almost certainly would be difficult to maintain in the major leagues.
Now, swing changes are not as easy as flipping a switch, but he could be an adjustment away from being an excellent big league OF. Having this type of athlete roaming CF or LF in PNC is something fans should be able to get excited about.
Jud’s Deal
JV: There are a lot of teams who could use a closer or a fireman. Right now, Bednar could fill either or both of those roles. The New York Mets have an established closer in Edwin Diaz. He’s one of the best in the game but Steve Cohen has spent a lot of dough to get this team on the precipice of a strong postseason run.
So adding Bednar to that BP and having a one-two punch there just feels right.
Mets get-
David Bednar(and a case of IC Light)-CL- MLB (SV-$10M and a bump)
A Bednar and Diaz one-two punch would be something that teams would be jealous of. For those of us that remember Tony Waston setting up Mark Melancon? It would be like that only deadlier. And would give the Mets a closer for every outing.
Liover Pegeuro-SS/2B-ETA-Debuted(SV-$10-15M Change of scene candidate)
I think this is a name we could see as a “throw in” kinda guy. A change of scene seems to be heavily needed at this point. Peggy looks to have a viable MLB career in his future, even if it’s a super-utility type role. He plays just about everywhere, 3B, SS, 2B. He even logged innings at 1B and CF in 2025.
Pirates get-
Ronny Mauricio-SS/3B/2B-Debuted-(SV-$40M)
Once one of the biggest prospects in the game, it is entirely possible that he would not be available for a Bednar package, but he should be.
First off, he hasn’t played a ton of SS since his knee injury that caused him to miss the 2024 campaign.
Secondly, his career is off to a sluggish start. A .228/.282/.345 slash line isn’t exactly something I’d call noteworthy. However this is over an absurdly small sample size (40 games). It also makes it next to impossible to guesstimate a surplus value for him.
Finally, the Mets can afford to use him in this trade given that four of the top ten prospects (per MLB Pipeline) are listed as shortstop/infielder so they are flush at these positions.
Is this a gamble considering his slow start?
Yes, it is. This is the kind of dude I’d take a gamble on.
For one thing the power is legit. In AA in 2022, he hit 26 home runs over 123 games. The following season at AAA, he hit 23 through 116 games before getting called up to the show. And the Bucs could use some added power to lineup which has been completely void of it.
His position flexibility is also something that is appealing. The Bucs likely would look at SS with him but – and I know many will think me an idiot for saying this – the Bucs do not need to rebuild. They simply need to make smart upgrades and adjustments.
Adding Mauricio isn’t just adding one guy with position flexibility. It gives the Bucs some latitude on how they upgrade the lineup. If they somehow get the Red Sox to give up Ceddanne Rafaela (in a deal for Mitch Keller, just sayin’) they can slide Ronny to 3B, trade Ke’Bryan Hayes and play Rafaela at SS. Or just keep Rafaela in the outfield.
This is exactly the kind of chess that the Pirates front office needs to be playing.
Wrap it up
CS: I think we’ve got a couple of fun proposals here, JV. Bringing back major league ready or very near major league ready pieces seems like the way to ease some sting fans might feel over trading a hometown guy & pretty well-liked piece.
JV: While Ronny Mauricio is a gamble, it really is the kind of trade the Bucs need to be looking at.The upside here is worth putting the cards on the table for. That he has limped out of the gate could be the reason he’s attainable in this kind of trade but, aside from all of that, the ability to move him to different positions will be a valuable trait to have. There’s even a belief he has the tools to play in the outfield.
Bednar, along with Mitch Keller are the best trade chips the Bucs have to help improve the lineup. Landing guys with some position flexibility like Mauricio would go a long way in giving the Bucs some wiggle room in the other moves they can potentially make, allowing them to take the best player on the table and put together a lineup worthy of long lines at the concession stands.
If you build it Mr. Nutting, they will come.
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