6-30-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Following a series sweep, the Pirates welcome the division-rival St. Louis Cardinals to town as they once again will face Erick Fedde, who enters the day with a 3-7 record and 4.11 ERA through 87.2 innings pitched.
While the 4.11 ERA isn’t necessarily awful on its face, Fedde has gotten a bit of luck as his K-BB% of 5.1% is the 2nd worst among all qualified starters, as his his xFIP at 5.07.
We covered Fedde previously ahead of his start against Pittsburgh on April 9, before he threw six no-hit innings, as well as last year when he faced the Bucs on September 19, tossing six frames of one-run ball.
So why is one of the worst pitchers in MLB so hard for the Pirates to figure out?
Let’s look at what happened last time he faced the Bucs:
Fedde threw 88 pitches with 14 whiffs, 4 walks and 2 strikeouts. He utilized the sinker, cutter and sweeper against righties while using the sinker, cutter and changeup when facing lefties.
Only 39 of his 88 pitches were in the strike zone, leading to Bucs batters chasing 16 of 49 would-be balls – a 32.7% chase rate that is significantly higher than his 24.8% mark on the year.
Basically, the failures against Fedde have been self-inflicted for the Pirates and a more patient approach at the plate should provide better results.
Lefties should focus on his cutter, which he has been prone to hang middle of the plate and against which lefties are batting .362 and slugging .638.
Right handed hitters, by contrast, should target Fedde’s sinker – which he goes to in these situations 44.7% of the time. Opposing righties are batting .267 against the pitch (expected batting average is .306) with an average exit velocity of 95 MPH.
He doesn’t throw hard and doesn’t fool many hitters. He rates at or near the bottom of the league in batting average against, average exit velocity and whiff rates so opponents are making contact with the ball consistently, hitting it hard and finding grass.
If other teams can do it, maybe this resurgent Pirates team can too.
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