7-2-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
The Pirates are in uncharted territory as they ride a 5-game winning streak into the final match of this home stand, hoping to finish a perfect 6-for-6. Unfortunately for them, they have to go through the Cardinals ace, Sonny Gray, who is fresh off the best start of his long career.
Entering today with an 8-2 record, 3.36 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 101 strikeouts to just 17 strikeouts over 93.2 innings, Gray is consistent as ever in his 13th season in Major League Baseball.
Even as his fastball has dropped a bit over the years, Gray has continued to induce chases, limit hard contact and post strong K/BB rates among the best in baseball.
Gray has faced the Bucs twice this season (see here and here) and has been dominant both times, holding the Bucs to just 1 run off 5 hits over a combined 12 innings with 1 walk and 12 strikeouts, continuing a trend against the Pirates that preceded his time in St. Louis.
Given that dominance, it would be hard to find a glimmer of hope for the Bucs so let’s look at some other outings where Gray was significantly less effective to find a potential path forward for Pittsburgh today:
On May 14th, Gray lasted just 3.2 innings against the Phillies – the start immediately following his masterful 5/7 game over the Pirates – allowing 7 runs off 8 hits and a walk with just 4 strikeouts. Now, in this game – which was the second match in a double-header for the Red Birds – Gray threw just 77 pitches with 34 of them being either a 4-seam or 2-seam fastball averaging 91.6 MPH – but 40 of those 77 pitches were out of the strike zone, including 15 of those fastballs.
Only three of those fastballs out of the zone were swung at and only 2 of 18 total swings against those heaters resulted in whiffs, forcing him to work more in the zone with his secondary offerings and hang the occasional breaking ball.
On June 12th, Gray faced off with the Milwaukee Brewers, surrendering 6 runs off 8 hits through 4.1 innings of work with 1 walk and 4 strikeouts in the game. Once again, he leaned heavily on his fastballs with 35 total between the 4-seam and sinker.
Again, not a lot of swings-and-misses (only 4 on 19 swings against these offerings) and the trouble locating the pitches effectively forced him once again to hang breaking balls in the zone.
What can we take away from these games? Not a ton. The Phillies and Brewers are both very talented offenses who play in much more hitter-friendly parks; however, that was a caveat here that could prove critical for the Bucs finally slaying the Gray Giant, as he has struggled considerably more on the road than at home.
Additionally, his main pitch in the Maddux he threw against the Guardians last week was his sweeper – but the pitch was only working because the Cleveland hitters were hunting the fastballs.
Gray suffered his only losses of the season in the Phillies and Brewers games and those are the playbooks that this team will want to follow against Sonny today.
Neutralize the fastballs early and force Gray to work more and more on the plate in order to induce mistakes and make him pay.
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