Halfway Through the Season, Pirates Have Big Decisions to Make

7-5-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

This season started going bad last December.

I mean, it had all the buildup you’d expect after a season of breathing life into your organization. Yeah, the team itself achieved the exact same 76 wins as they did the year before, but it was easy mentally to get past that because no matter what your criticism might be one aspect of what was being attempted here, you know, stinking and getting high draft picks, had decisively provided one shining diamond, Paul Skenes.

So we, the fans, at least the vast majority of us felt, ok, Skenes is a win, and overall, we love where the pitching is headed. Here’s what we need, a new coach, a new hitting coach, and a couple decent bats. Annnnd, if at all possible, a new GM to make the changes.

Not a lot to ask for really. LOL Just change the GM and surgically change the coaching and have the new guy spend smarter, better, more, whatever the dream may be.

Point is, we got a new hitting coach and some spare part hitters. A couple nice reliever additions if I pretend most of us knew who they were.

So the natives got restless and the team ultimately admitted the error of one of their decisions to ignore the obvious by dismissing Shelton, and while the GM remains, he’s not as involved in the on the field stuff, clearly, and reportedly.

I don’t jump back here to pretend I was right, because clearly I won’t be, but I predicted an 83 win season this year. I thought they were essentially a .500 team this year looking at what I thought they had.

I think under Don Kelly, that’s exactly the team they’re playing like. And under Shelton they severely underachieved.

Now, I could say ok, but Shelton had Bednar the DFA candidate, Kelly has Bednar the All Star candidate. Shelton had Holderman mucking it up, Kelly had Holderman on the IL. Shelton got nothing out of Canario, Kelly played Canario, got a bit of production. Shelton had Cruz hitting like an All Star, Kelly has gotten Cruz the project. Probably the biggest of these, Shelton didn’t have Gonzales or Horwitz, Kelly did, along with a productive Frazier.

Point is, you can do that stuff all day long, at the end of the day, the record is much better, the energy is better, and the communication to both the players and the media is big time improved from at least the coaching level now.

The point of all this, Ben Cherington built a team that maxes out around .500 if a whole lot of stuff goes right.

I take a couple things from that. First, he thought it was better than that, not a ton better, but he thought this was an 81-85 win team. Second, the single biggest reason he won’t reach .500 or better is his decision to keep a bad coach in place and choosing to sign two lesser pieces for offensive help as opposed to one that might actually lengthen the lineup.

Now that’s where we are, and how we got here. I think I still feel the GM needs to go, but for today, let’s just focus on what would be smart for this club to do. And I’ll break this into a 4 point plan.

1. State Your Intention for 2026

I want nothing less than Bob Nutting himself to come out with a simple statement. I want him to say it’s his intention for this team to host a playoff series in 2026.

Just having a statement like that out there would change a lot about the uneasy feeling everyone has when approaching the subject of improving this team via trade. Every idea someone in the media puts forward would have to pass this little reasoning test, does that move help this team host a playoff series in 2026? For that matter, every move whomever Bob hires as the next GM, or this one if that’s what he decides to do would also have to pass that little test.

There is no trade of Bryan Reynolds, or Oneil Cruz that is likely to help this team in 2026 host a playoff series.

Now that’s my made up goal, they could go with something vague like competitive, but for me, that’s too vague. Think about it, Aldi is competitive with Whole Foods right? Lexus and Mitsubishi? Yeah, I want something stronger, tangible. And it’s not to pin Bob to the wall or make up some dumb ultimatum that won’t ever happen, it’s just a guiding light, and that’s what the owner is supposed to do. Set the expectation, so everyone under you knows what they’re shooting for. I don’t even need him to get smarter, just make it clear what you expect.

2. Honestly Evaluate the 2025 Team

It’s not about squinting, it’s about going around the diamond, understanding your depth, evaluating areas you need to upgrade, in order to what? That’s right, the overall expectation. Be smart, don’t see a guy’s ceiling and consider it an eventuality.

Nothing you do should weaken this team from the 2025 version to the 2026 version. A good example here is, it’s a good thing you recognized that the team should upgrade over Connor Joe, but it’s probably not a good thing that you chose Pham or Frazier to do it, because even if they are an upgrade, it’s minimal. The next example could very well be Isiah Kiner-Falefa, I’m fine if you recognize a team trying to get better needs to upgrade here, unless your upgrade isn’t.

Don’t get oversold on a hot team and try to bolt on in the short term for this version of the team. You can bolt on, but if it doesn’t help 2026, it breaks the rules.

Don’t hold onto rentals of your own if you know damn well you want a youngster to take their playing time, that time you get to see them is the only good thing that comes from playing as terribly as you did at the beginning of the season. If you think a guy might be an answer next Spring, there’s a better chance of them actually being an upgrade if you’ve let them get the rookie beaten out of them in this year.

3. Before You Do Anything Else…

Do everything you can to sign Paul Skenes to an extension. I know, I know, laugh away. I don’t think this needs to be a lifetime contract, but I also see Paul as likely the only plausible reset button Bob Nutting could ever push.

From a PR standpoint, it would be the most unexpected and welcome thing he’s done here and it would alleviate a bit of the pressure along with the expectation that this team is going to stink in 4-5 years regardless of what they do. Those things matter, and if they have to defer money, or give him 5% of the team, I can’t see a world where it’s not worth the money. This has never been an owner who understands he has to spend to make money, and I get I’m asking him to do so here, but this window has a chance to slam shut right when you have a whole lot of other things ready if you don’t do it. Here’s the thing too, it doesn’t even have to get really expensive immediately. Just the news of this signing would probably help fan investment and you’ll likely make money from it before you start really paying for it.

Does this mean they can’t sign other guys, maybe, but this guy is the reason we believe there’s a foundation anyway right? Won’t that always be true?

4. Don’t Restrict or Hug Prospects

There has been an increased urgency to allow prospects to move through the system, and that’s welcome, but as you do so, it becomes more and more apparent that this team has a prospect hugging problem.

And I mean guys they simply don’t want to play themselves. It’s insane that Liover Peguero has been on the 40-man for 4 seasons and he’s gotten all of 237 plate appearances in the Bigs. It’s clear the Pirates don’t want to use him, but they refused to move him when he was getting interest. That’s prospect hugging, AKA, the fear of being wrong. The same exact problem this owner has when it comes to spending money to make more in return.

This isn’t the same argument as bring up the kids they can’t be worse, instead it’s hey, if a guy can’t crack this lineup after being on the 40-man 2-3 years, good chance they won’t, so wave goodbye to Bae, Peggy types. Trade them if you can. Use them as sweeteners with rentals. But please do use them, because when we sit down to start figuring out who needs protected this year, well, I’ll just say, they’re going one way or another.

This also goes for the top prospects. Sure, draw a line, no Bubba, no Griffin, I get it, so should everyone else, but don’t just hug onto Termarr if someone sees him as a really good get, let them. Yeah, this team needs offense, but if you can get a guy who helps in 25, 26 and 27 that you know is an MLB player right now, hey, be open to it.

If you choose to move a guy like Keller instead, fine, then you maybe add Barco to your can’t touch list, but again, it has to help 2026, so you better be sure you’ll be able to mask the absence of Mitch. I mean both in the rotation and in the lineup to make it less imperative you have the strongest rotation you could put together.

Subscribe to our site, it’s free and all you’ll get from us is a notification when there’s something new to read.