7-5-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
The winning streak may have come to an end yesterday but it’s always a good day to start another one – and there’s no better pitcher to do it against than former divisional foe, Luis Castillo.
The 3-time All Star nicknamed “La Piedra” (which translates to “The Rock”) struggled the last time he faced the Pirates in August, as he allowed 4 runs over 5.1 innings of work with 3 walks and 6 strikeouts.
He’s dropped off a bit in production the past few years since his career-high 5.2 bWAR in 2019 and while he has still gotten fairly solid results, the underlying numbers tell a different story.
Castillo has seen a steady decline in his strikeout rate, dropping to career-low 7.38 K/9 and 19.4% K rate this year after posting a 10.01 K/9 and 27.3% K rate just two years ago in a campaign where he finished 5th in Cy Young voting.
Consequently, he has seen his batting average against jump from .216 to .247 and xERA climb from 3.79 to 4.71 over the past two seasons.
The former Cincinnati Red has as many outings of 5 or less innings with 4 or more runs allowed as scoreless appearances this season (4 a piece).
Castillo features a 4-seamer and 2-seamer in the mid-90s, a mid-80s slider and a high-80s changeup.
His 4-seam fastball, similar to Bryan Woo, has produced strong results against hitters on both sides of the plates with an oBA of .229 for lefties and .133 for righties.
Lefties have found the most success against his slider (.364 BAA and .591 SLG) while righties have crushed the sinker (.385 BAA and .508 SLG).
As is common with Mariners starters, Castillo has been much better at home (.620 OPS) than outside of Seattle (.812 OPS) and a batting average more than 100 points lower than away.
Pick your pitch, pick a spot and be ready to attack. Castillo may still have the velocity and movement on his pitches but can catch too much plate and get punished by good hitting.
And the Pirates have shown some of that hitting lately – if they can just rock out against Castillo today.
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