7-8-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Although they were not able to secure a win, the Pirates broke out of their streak of posting zeros on the scoreboard. Now, they’ll look to take another step with a victory today as they face veteran Seth Lugo, who is 6-5 with a 2.65 ERA over his first 16 starts this year.
Lugo spent his first 8 MLB seasons pitching in the Senior Circuit – with the Mets for 7 years and the Padres for 1 – but has only started getting acclaim since joining the Royals in 2024 where he made his first All Star Game and went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA over 206.2 innings pitched as he finished runner-up in Cy Young voting to Tarrik Skubal.
Despite the accolades and strong numbers, Lugo isn’t blowing away hitters with overpowered stuff. In fact, his 14% K-BB rate is near an all-time low – as is his .244 BABIP – while posting the highest strand rate (86.7%) of his career.
Similar to the situation with yesterday’s starter, Lugo’s ERA-FIP is among the worst and most lopsided among qualified starters.
He also ranks well below average in hard-hit rate, whiff rate, chase rate, average exit velocity and fastball velocity – ranking in the bottom quartile for each category.
So, how exactly is he successful with below average stuff and underlying metrics? Well, he has a uniquely diverse pitch mix with ten different pitches logged this season, per BaseballSavant.
He mixes speed and location – including varying speeds on his curve – to keep batters off their timing and limit mistake pitches.
He doesn’t strongly favor specific pitches in matchups but has been leaning more heavily on the curve/4-seam/changeup against lefties and sinker/4-seam when facing righties.
The secondary pitches have been a challenge for Lugo to execute this season against lefties are pummeling his curve with a .351 batting average against while batting .324 and slugging .514 against his changeup. Compare that to a .192 BAA for his fastballs and it’s clear what left handed hitters should target.
Righties are batting just .161 against Lugo with a .485 OPS so loading up lefties will be the best path for success today.
If the lefties like Cruz, Reynolds and Frazier can do some damage early and give Mitch Keller some run support,the Bucs might just have a chance of breaking this losing skid.
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