7-11-2025 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X
The 2025 MLB Entry Draft is coming up quickly. The Pirates find themselves in quite a nice position selecting 6th overall. The overall makeup of this draft class is that it is deep with talent in round 1 & no “clear” #1 guy. This is a terrific year to pick outside of the pole position.
Teams ‘do not draft for need’ is a generally accepted maxim when it comes to the MLB Draft. The first thing to clear up is that this is exactly why we will look at all types of options. While my aim is to keep this concise & look at a few different sectors of the draft pool, there are quite a few options to cover. Selecting at 6, some of these players will be off of the board. But given the inherent unpredictability of how teams selecting 1-5 will behave, we will touch on all sectors of options. For the first group lets go ahead with college arms.
Big Men On Campus
This group is comprised of three big time lefthanded hurlers. These names are all fairly recognizable to anyone that watched the NCAA tournament or followed college baseball for any length of time this season. They are Kade Anderson, Liam Doyle, & Jamie Arnold.
Kade Anderson, LSU – A 2025 Golden Spikes Semi-Finalist as a draft eligible sophomore Anderson carried the torch of LSU aces admirably. Anderson completed his season going 12-1 with 180 K/35 BB, 3.18 ERA & 2.93 FIP over 119 IP. Anyone who watched him deal during the College World Series got a glimpse of the dominance. During the CWS he tossed 16IP that included a complete game shut-out.
His arsenal features four offerings a four seamer that can touch 97 (sits mid 90s), a plus curveball, an above-average slider, and a near average-ish changeup. A major plus is that he is a highly skilled pitcher that can command his entire arsenal. Anderson should be a no-doubt starter at the next level with remaining projection given his frame and strike-throwing ability.
Perusing mock drafts, it seems to be a longshot that Anderson will tumble to 6.
Liam Doyle, Tennessee – One of three Golden Spikes Finalists, watching Liam Doyle pitch is an exhilarating experience. It is so different than watching most pitchers at times it feels like you are watching a different sport. When Doyle is extremely amped up the viewer gets the same feeling as watching “Uncut Gems.” There is a sense of the batter’s impending doom hanging over each pitch, like Howard Ratner placing that (obviously ruinous) ‘can’t miss’ bet only to swing & miss before slinking back to the dugout.
Doyle finished the season in Knoxville with a 10-4 record and 1 save in 19 appearances. He had an absurd 42.6 K% and a sterling 34.3 K-BB% that was due in large part to his elite four seam fastball that is most likely the singular best offering in the draft. Doyle’s overall arsenal features a four seam, slider, cutter, & splitter. The secondary offerings are not quite as polished and seem to receive divided grades among evaluators. Some question his ability to remain a starter long-term, but it should be noted that he has done so in his 3 years of college baseball.
While not the same type of prospect, there are some obvious comparisons to Garrett Crochet to be drawn. Doyle, with his plus-heater could have a near immediate impact in a Major League bullpen, just as Crochet did in his draft year. Of course any team picking him in the top 10 will and should develop him as a starter.
Scanning the teams selecting ahead of Pittsburgh, Rockies pick 1.4 seems like the likely “floor” here, but the Angels and their desire to push round 1 picks sure makes a ton of sense at pick 1.2.
Jamie Arnold, Florida State – Another Golden Spikes Semi-Finalist, Jamie Arnold is our third and final Big Man On Campus. Of the trio-Arnold is probably my personal favorite of the LHH college trio. Very likely to remain a starting pitcher, Arnold throws from a funky arm angle that helps his entire repertoire play up. He features two near plus pitches in his four seamer & slider. He also works a change-up in that plays well off of the two more premium pitches. Earlier this season there were some reports that he was tinkering with a cutter, but I have not seen a ton of evidence of that pitch sticking around. Take a look at his arm angle along with some of the specs that make him so damn enticing as a prospect:
2025 saw Arnold toss 84.2 IP going 8-2 with a 2.98 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 119 K/27 BB. If you think you see shades of Chris Sale here, I’d be inclined to agree. I am not saying that as a direct comparison by any means, but there are some definite similarities.
Of the three, I am inclined to think Arnold making it to 1.6 is the most “realistic” proposition.
The Duke of Corona Highschool is A #1
Our Prep Pitchers group really only has one entry to cover in my opinion. Lets meet him:
Seth Hernandez, Corona HS (CA) – The 2025 Gatorade Player of the year, Seth Hernandez is a dawg standing at 6’4″, 190lbs at just 19 years old. In preparing for this write up several evaluators have gone out of their way to note that Hernandez is the best prep arm to enter a draft since Hunter Greene in 2017. Hernandez boasts an arsenal that is almost unfathomable to imagine oneself stepping in to the box against as a Highschool student. You’d have to stare down a plus fastball, plus-plus changeup, and two other above-average pitches (slider & curve), ride the bus all the way home & you STILL have to write that god damn essay on The Great Gatsby (you didn’t read it, you aren’t going to read it). You just whiffed 4 times on your only 4 swings. F**k Nick Carraway, honestly.
Committed to Vanderbilt, Hernandez seems to be a lock to go top 8-10 and forgo that commitment. In terms of pure upside, I believe that Seth Hernandez is nearly unrivaled in this draft class. The odds of his availability at pick 1.6 seem to be fair, a tremendous addition to any farm system.
Leave It To (a) Beaver
Aiva Arquette, Oregon State – Arguably the top college position player in the 2025 draft class, Aiva Arquette is a big human being. Standing 6’4″, 205lbs and holding down shortstop for the Oregon State Beavers and mashing his way to a Golden Spikes Semi-Finalist finish himself with a final line of; 19 homers, 17 doubles, 1 triple, 73 runs scored, 66 RBI, 7 steals, slashing .354/.461/.654 to go along with a .481 wOBA & 153 wRC+. Ultimately some question on his ability to stick at short as he is already a large human, he can really mash baseballs with near plus power backed by 60 grade EVs, high quality of contact, & a rougly 60% hard hit rate.
Above I noted that he may not be able to stick at short, but he has flashed some impressive ability at the position for a man of his size. Check this slick play out:
His hit tool lags a little behind with most outlets projecting it to be capable of reaching a 50 level, but there was some concern about swing decisions in the profile too. Ultimately he is able to offset these concerns with his ability to punish the ball and make high quality QoC.
There is a good deal of evidence linking Seattle to Arquette at 1.3. The odds of him being on the board at 1.6 seems somewhat poor as of writing.
All The Young Dudes
Our final player block to run through are prep hitters. This year’s draft features significantly more Round 1 Highschool bats than 2024, by a sizeable margin. Of course, most of them are shortstops (because the best athletes play there, folks) so I will just label them all as such. This group is comprised of Ethan Holliday, Eli Willits, Billy Carlson, and JoJo Parker.
Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS (OK) – I am confident almost everyone reading this is already familiar with this player. Yes, he is part of that Holliday lineage. Yes, he is a good baseball player. Yes, he will almost definitely come off the board before 1.6. But we should look at him briefly anyway just in case something funky happens.
From the jump I’d like to note that based upon researching for this write up I found myself a touch lower on Holliday The Younger than most. What he does well, hit for power and display discipline at the plate. While it is not easy to find much in the way of up to date data for public consumption on HS hitters, it seems to be pretty widely acknowledged that Holliday has a pretty questionable hit tool with somewhat limited athleticism compared to others in this bucket.
That being said, the upside is very high due to his massive power potential, several evaluators have placed a 70 grade on it.
The thunder in the bat is undeniable. Pair that with his approach/discipline and the family bloodlines and you’ve got yourself a high end prospect.
I expect him to come off of the board within the first 3 picks.
Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK) – Eli Willitis probably has the most helium heading in to draft day as any other prospect. He has reclassified from the 2026 class to 2025, making him one of the youngest (maybe youngest overall) player in this draft. He will not turn 18 until December 2025. From watching Willits play, I get the feeling that it is a “solid across the board” profile without a true standout tool present right now but rather a lot of above average tools and lots of projection due to bloodlines, age, & frame.
I do not want anyone to come away with the impression that “solid across the board” is meant as a pejorative. This kid looks like a natural ballplayer. A lot of times this type of profile is kind of poo-pooed because there isn’t a ton of “flash” necessarily. But in reality these players have quite a bit of value due to a higher floor and greater possibility of turning in to an every day player and/or regular. If you combine this with floor with that projection (MLB bloodline, young draft age, physical projection) Major League Baseball front offices & scouts begin to salivate. Like, they actually drool. It is all a part of a decades long social experiment ala Pavlov’s Dog. It is Pavlov’s Prospect.
He is committed to the University of Oklahoma where his father (former MLB player Reggie Willits) is on the coaching staff. Given the likelihood that he is selected in the top 8 picks and as recently as one week out from draft day, he has a real 1.1 possibility (would be the youngest player ever picked 1.1) he will not be playing college baseball.
The Pirates have been linked to Willits, but at this point, I’d be shocked if he is on the board at 1.6.
Billy Carlson, Corona HS (CA) – The second player out of Corona HS in this piece, Billy Carlson has become somewhat divisive. There are some mixed opinions on his ability to become an impact hitter. What there are no mixed opinions on are his ability to stick at shortstop. Virtually all reports on Carlson put a 70 on both the glove and the throwing arm (he was also a pitcher and could touch 97). Additionally, at almost all prep events his athleticism has tested extremely well.
I am probably above consensus on Carlson’s future bat prospects. At the 2024 Prep Baseball All-American Game his swing speed max was measured at 81.1 mph. That is stupendous, by the way. It seems to me that he has been subject to something of “prospect fatigue” given that he has been on Draft evaluators radars since his Freshman year.
While there is no assurance that the bat will develop, I think his floor is quite high. The Pirates have been linked to him early and often in the lead up to this draft. If I had to make an educated guess, I think he is likely to be the selection at 1.6.
JoJo Parker, Purvis HS (MS) – Much like Eli Willits, JoJo Parker has also been a riser as we get nearer to draft day. He put on a good show at the MLB Draft Combine where he you can see the swing pretty geared to hit the ball hard in the air with evidently fast and strong hands.
Most outlets have come around to declaring Parker the best hit/power combo of the prep shortstops and I think I am buying that too. He is good but not great athleticism and may eventually need to move off of short. But a team selecting JoJo is picking him for the bat. As it relates to the Pirates connection, there is somewhat of a link between 2024 first rounder, Konnor Griffin, and the Parkers (JoJo & Jacob).
It is very likely that JoJo is in the mix for 1.6 & unless someone really has a last minute obsession in the 1-5 range he is absolutely a real possible option.
Wrapping It Up
We covered a lot of prospects here. Many of whom have been linked or rumored to go ahead of 1.6. It felt important to include them too though. There are some teams picking ahead of Pittsburgh who are sort of wild cards (Rockies, Angels, Nationals who just fired their GM). Trying to make any firm predictions here is a fools errand. If I had to give my own personal preference based on the players I think will be available, it would look like this
Seth Hernandez/Jamie Arnold/Billy Carlson/Eli Willits/JoJo Parker
I would have a VERY difficult time passing on adding either Hernandez or Arnold to this club. Putting them in to this development system is simply too tough to pass up.
It should be said that NONE of these picks would be “bad.” There are even others that I did not include who would also be great here (Ike Irish, Josh Hammond, Gavin Fien, Daniel Pierce, Kyson Witherspoon, Marek Houston). Picking at 6 in this draft is a great place to find your team!
I simply cannot wait until Draft Day & look forward to following the new crop of Young Bucs.
Steel City Pirates 