7-20-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Looking to avoid being swept at home by one of the only teams worse than them in the standings was not how the Pirates likely envisioned this series going but, here we are. After allowing 10 runs in each of the first two games this weekend, the Bucs will look to end Yinzerpalooza with a victory – if they can overcome today’s starter, Aaron Civale.
Acquired via trade from the Brewers last month, Civale has been one of the worst starters in MLB since heading to the South Side.
Between Milwaukee and Chicago, Civale has combined for a 5.30 ERA through 52.2 innings pitched. Despite that, Civale seems to always have the Pirates number – especially last season.
Bouncing between the White Sox, Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians over the past three seasons, Civale has become a bit of a nomad who has a combined 4.13 ERA over parts of 7 MLB seasons.
We have covered him extensively previously (most recently here) so the Pirates should know what to expect ahead of today’s matchup but let’s look at what happened last time around, as well as what he’s been doing since joining the White Sox.
During his last matchup with the Pirates on 5/22, Civale worked just 4 innings with 4 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks and 3 strikeouts over his 73 pitches thrown.
He mostly leaned on his cutter (26) and sinker (21), which sat in the 90-93 MPH range.
He struggled with command as he placed only 39 pitches in the strike zone but missed up consistently. His sinker, in particular, was left up in the zone with Pirates hitters making contact on 5 of 6 swings against the offering.
He did generate misses on his cutter but not consistently and, when they made contact on the offering, it typically was solid with a first inning double by Andrew McCutchen and a game-tying homer by Spencer Horwitz both coming against the cutter.
Civale made waves earlier this year when he demanded a trade from the Brewers after a relegation to the bullpen, eventually getting shipped to Chicago in a swap for Andrew Vaughn but the results have been speaking for themselves.
Since switching leagues last month, Civale has increased usage of his mid-80s splitter and low-90s 4-seam fastball against left handed hitters while using his high-70s curve more against righties.
The splitter is providing solid results – when he has a good feel for it – as opponents are hitting just .133 against the offering with an average exit velocity of 77.8 MPH. He has been locating the pitch down and away from lefties so hitters will need to watch the spin and movement to try laying off the pitch today.
Look for elevated heat – cutters, sinkers – or the breaking balls that don’t break – curve, sliders. If he has his splitter working against lefties, it’s a tough pitch to square up so hitters will want to spit on it and attack other offerings.
A sweep today, while a cherry on top of this awful 2025 campaign, would further the eroding morale of this team and with much more competent competition ahead, this team can’t afford to play worse than they already are, right?
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