7-25-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Refreshed after the off-day, the Pirates look to wrap up their home-stand against the Arizona Diamondbacks with Ryne Nelson on the docket to start today.
Nelson has bounced between the rotation and bullpen for the Snakes this season as he makes his 12th start of the season and enters Friday with a solid 3.52 ERA through 84.1 innings of work.
He fared well against the Bucs last time around as he tossed 6.2 shutout frames on May 26th with just 4 hits, no walks and 4 strikeouts in that start.
As mentioned previously, his success is backed by a deceptively strong 4-seam fastball – which sits mid-90s but can touch 98 – as opponents are batting just .187 against the offering. He has been throwing the pitch constantly (62.5%) and it has resulted in 52 of his 69 strikeouts on the year thus far due in large part to his above-average extension leading to one of the highest run values on the pitch in MLB.
He mixes in a cutter, slider, curve and changeup but his bread and butter is the heater upstairs.
Nelson has been extra locked-in lately as he pitched 6+ innings with 2 or less earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. And while Pittsburgh seriously struggled against Nelson last time around, there is reason to think they could fare better in round 2.
First off, Nelson has had a suspiciously low BABIP this season (.233) – well below his career .284 rate and tied for the 2nd lowest mark in MLB for pitchers with a minimum 80 innings pitched.
Additionally, despite playing in a hitter-friendly environment, Nelson has shown struggles much more outside of his home ballpark as his ERA away from Chase Field (5.79) is nearly triple what it is when opponents bat first (2.09).
Final thing I want to note on Nelson is that, unlike most pitchers, he is better the second time through the order than the first with opponents having over 70 points higher batting average and more than 200 points higher slugging percentage the first time they see Nelson in a game.
He’s going to throw a ton of fastballs and the Pirates need to be geared up for it and try to get to him early in the game if they want to do the kind of damage they’ve been showing they’re capable of inflicting lately.
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