7-26-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Pittsburgh continues to struggle finding consistency at the plate this season following their 24th 1-run loss and 14th time getting shutout on the season. Today, they will look for redemption as they face Snakes starter, Merrill Kelly, who has quietly been one of the better pitchers in the National League.
Among qualified starters in the Senior Circuit, Kelly ranks 8th in bWAR (3.1), 13th in ERA (3.32), 14th in strikeouts (118), 8th in WHIP (1.06) and 7th in batting average against (.206).
However, the underlying metrics don’t back up the sustainability of this production as he also has the 4th lowest BABIP (.248) with similar hard hit% (43.8%) and average exit velocity (90.6 MPH) numbers to last season (40.9% and 90.5 MPH, respectfully) when he had a 4.03 ERA and a .273 BABIP.
He gets strong chase rates and plus groundball numbers due in large part to his main offering: a high-80s changeup, which generates a 34% whiff rate and a .176 BAA.
He also dispatches a 4-seam, cutter and sinker in the low-90s but to a much less successful result as opposing batter are hitting .230 and slugging .443 against Kelly’s fastballs.
Against lefties, he also goes to a low-80s curve while switching to a mid-80s slider as a secondary versus righties.
Left handed hitters should target the 4-seam and sinker as they have a .364 wOBA against his sinker and .443 against the 4-seam.
Righties have only been having success against Kelly’s sinker – but it’s been a TON of success as they’re batting .354 and slugging .438 with a 15.8% whiff rate, which are all the best marks against any of his main offerings.
Key for the Bucs today is just make contact and put the ball in play. It was promising that they only struck out 7 times in 11 innings last night but getting bat-to-ball will eventually get those hits to fall in against opponents.
Stay on the elevated heat, spit on the offspeed/breaking stuff down and get some runs on the board.
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