7-29-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Following late night victory in game one, the Pirates are poised for a third straight series win if they can overcome tonight’s starter and future Hall of Famer, Justin Verlander.
The 42-year old Verlander is a bit removed from his days pitching at an elite level which netted him 3 Cy Youngs and an MVP over his illustrious 20 years in MLB, entering the day with a 1-8 record, 4.70 ERA over 84.1 innings pitched with 70 strikeouts and 33 walks through his first 17 starts with San Francisco.
Verlander is feeling Father Time catching up as he is experiencing his lowest strikeout rate (18.6%) since 2014 (17.8%) and highest walk rate (8.8%) since 2008 (9.9%). As a result, his xERA (4.87) is the worst mark since Statcast tracking started in 2015.
July has been the worst month of the season for the 2006 Rookie of the Year as Verlander has a 6.48 ERA across 16.2 innings this month. That said, he is coming off his best start of his 2025 campaign as he pitched 5 shutout innings of 1-hit ball in Atlanta last week – however, even that comes with a caveat as he only managed 3 strikeouts against 5 walks in the game.
Although the velocity has understandably ticked down from his peak of pumping 100 at the top of the zone, Verlander is still averaging mid-90s with his 4-seam fastball with a high-80s slider and high-70s curve as his main secondary offerings mixing in a mid-80s changeup against lefties and a low-80s sweeper primarily against right handed hitters.
From both sides of the plate, the plan should be to look for the elevated fastball. Verlander is throwing the pitch 43.9% to lefties and 50.4% against righties with poor results across the board with a combined .324 xBA and .603 xSLG and 8 of his 10 home runs allowed this season coming against the pitch.
By contrast, Verlander has had success with his lesser-used offerings as his sweeper has a .091 opponent batting average while his changeup has an arsenal-best 35% whiff rate.
If the Bucco bats can stay on the heat and lay off the junk down and off the plate, they have a chance to take their first road series since taking 2 of 3 in Arizona against the Diamondbacks from May 26-28.
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