8-9-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Following another comeback win last night, the Pirates are looking to build on the momentum as they look to secure a series win today against starter Nick Martinez, who enters with a 9-9 record on the year, 4.66 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 129.1 innings of work.
While Martinez has been successful at eating innings for the injury-riddled Reds rotation, he’s been one of the least successful qualified starters in MLB as his ERA ranks 9th highest with the 11th lowest strikeout rate (17.5%).
He has been bit by a bit of bad luck as his strand rate of 67.5% is 6th lowest in that group while his FIP of 4.19 would put him as a more middle-of-the-road starter – though, he’s bounced between rotation and bullpen before more recently solidifying his position as one of the Reds starters.
He’s also been much more effective lately, pitching 5+ innings with 2 or less runs allowed over his last 4 starts, with his team winning 8 of his last 9 appearances between starting and relief – including a game where he took a no-hitter into the 9th.
We covered Martinez ahead of his last outing against the Bucs on May 20 where Martinez posted one of his best outings this year, pitching into the 7th inning after posting 6 frames of 4-hit, 1-run ball with 2 walks, a hit batter and 3 strikeouts in the game.
Martinez doesn’t have any overpowering pitches, relying on a diverse arsenal while changing locations and speed to keep opponents off-balance and generate weak contact. His six pitches have a usage ratio of at least 10% with above-average vertical movement on both his changeup and curve.
Martinez will utilize the sinker primarily against righties while mixing in the other offerings at a lower rate but uses the 4-seam/changeup/cutter nearly equally against left-handed hitters so those are the offerings to focus on today and we covered his changeup and its effectiveness last time so let’s focus on the fastballs since they are the primary pitches to each side of the plate..
Lefties see fastballs from Martinez 57.6% of the time and are batting .250 with a .456 slugging percentage against – but even that’s deceptive as the xBA and xSLG (.306 and .519) are both significantly higher while both his .339 wOBA and .388 xwOBA are the highest for his pitch groups with 6 of his 8 home runs surrendered versus lefties coming against the heaters.
Switching sides of the plate, righties can hone in on the hanging sinker that typically runs to the outside of the plate compared to the cutter that Martinez works down and inside against opponents. But his sinker has been hit at a .292 clip with just a 12.1% whiff rate – the lowest among his main options used against right-handed hitters, making it very hittable when he doesn’t get the spin.
Look for high heat and be ready for pitches in the zone. Chance for a series win after two sub-par series losses so the Bucs need to be ready to attack and get the job done.
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