Know Your Enemy – April Edition

5-1-23 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter

The first month of the season has come and gone and things have been…wild. Just like everyone predicted, the Pirates have the best record in not only the NL Central, but the entire National League. But, we aren’t here to talk about the Pirates hot start, the rest of the Inside the Bucs Basement crew is doing a great job covering that. Our purpose for being here is to take a whirlwind look around the division. Below you will see the standing as of May 1st, 2023. Look upon them and smile, Pirates faithful. After you finish Nicholson nodding, let’s jump right in to the team reviews!

National League Central Standings
WinLoss
Pittsburgh Pirates209
Milwaukee Brewers1810
Chicago Cubs1413
Cincinnati Reds1216
St. Louis Cardinals1018

Milwaukee Brewers (16-9)

Milwaukee is off to a nice start given the amount of injuries they have battled. A testament to the team’s overall depth & willingness to call upon and trust resources from the minors, the record is still good enough for second place. 

Lineup

The lineup has been carried by the duo of Rowdy Tellez, Brian Anderson, both off to very productive starts. Despite losing several starters, this team continues to be a tough opponent. Since most are familiar with Rowdy and Brian Anderson, here are the guys I’d like to focus on from the start:

William Contreras – The young backstop is off to an impressive, and somewhat puzzling start to 2023. Like his older brother, Contreras is mostly known for his bat, but it has been his glove that is carrying his value so far. However, he has made some strides in his plate approach, drastically cutting his K% & whiff % in service of his average/hit tool. I expect to see him hit for power as the season wears on and if the approach sticks, he is going to be a very productive player for Milwaukee.

Garrett Mitchell – My ROY runner up prediction, Mitchell came out of the gate with a blistering hot start before the league began to adjust to him &  going down with a serious shoulder injury. It looks like Mitchell will be sidelined for the majority of the rest of 2023. He will hope to return late in the season or for the offseason.

Joey Wiemer – Wiemer is a freak athlete. Near top of the scale power/speed/defense. The big question coming up has been swing & miss/approach related. So far in the majors he is doing the exact opposite. Approach has been very good, but hitting for very modest power. He is a truly intriguing prospect with legitimate superstar potential given the toolset. He is absolutely someone to watch as the season wears on. 

Brice Turang – Turang opened with a hot start just like Mitchell, but he too has hit a bit of a skid as opposing teams have got more time to study him. Defense is carrying his profile right now, but he is a good all around player & if he can adjust too, he should be a fixture for MIL.

Pitching 

Freddy Peralta – Perlata has opened the season looking like he has rediscovered an approximation of his 2021 breakout. While not the same level of domination, he appears to be hitting his stride as a very good, borderline SP1. He will be very important for this team given the other losses.

Corbin Burnes – Burnes has had a lackluster start by his standards. The underlying numbers say he might be just fine, but it is worth noting that he is missing something from the last few years. He has recently suffered a pectoral ailment that might explain this, but it is something to watch.

Brandon Woodruff – Woodruff was off to his typical start before being sidelined with “shoulder inflammation.” Any time there is an arm or shoulder ailment popping up this early for an arm it is never a good sign. The good news is that he looked very sharp in his 11.1 IP before the IL move, but it would be an irreplaceable injury if Woody is out for significant time.

Eric Lauer/Wade Miley – Lauer has been sub-par, Miley has been quite effective. The underlying numbers say Miley should come down to earth some, but its been great for a 5th starter.

Minor League Check In

Jackson Chourio – The uber-prospect is off to a bit of a slow start, but the K% is down to a manageable 25% at AA for the 19 year old. Expect the take off in the coming month or two.
Tyler Black – Perhaps one of the biggest early prospect breakouts, Black is off to a great start at AA. Terrific plate approach 20.3%/17.4% BB/K & growing power and speed. A big time riser to this point.

Chicago Cubs (14-10)

A bit of an early season surprise here, but maybe it shouldn’t have been. In our preseason look we discussed how this team certainly has some talent and should be a thorny opponent for almost anyone. 

Lineup

The Cubs have had a top 5 offense by WAR, wRC+, & wOBA. A stellar start. Here are the early standouts:

Cody Bellinger – It looks like Bellinger is reclaiming his career in Chicago. While I still do not think we can expect the days of 7.8 WAR, MVP Belli, he looks like a well above-average player, possibly even an All-Star. 

Patrick Wisdom – Wisdom looks like a true slugger at the moment. Absolutely smashing the ball with a 94.6 EV but also has the traditional K issues of this profile. Regardless, he has been great and it looks real. Will likely be streaky due to the approach.

Nico Hoerner – The Anti-Wisdom with top of the scale plate discipline. Hoerner is a good all around ballplayer & tied with Bellinger for Cubs WAR leader. Does everything well, elite approach, great hit tool, strong defense, speed. Only real below-average tool is power, but the production has been strong & looks legit posting a .367 wOBA & 131 wRC+.

Trey Mancini/Eric Hosmer – They’ve been bad, folks. They are vets with track record to their names, but they are clogging up the roster right now & likely taking PAs away from guys we will talk about in a bit.

Pitching

Chicago’s pitching staff has come out hot with four of their starters dialed in early. The bullpen is middling, but they’ve got some real stopping power. Again, this team is annoying to play on all fronts:

Justin Steele – As we discussed preseason, Steele does indeed look to have arrived. His slider is one of the best in baseball by run value at a -4 and he pairs it with a very valuable 4-seamer that also ranks song the best in the game. The peripherals back his hot start up & he looks to be a real dude.

Drew Smyly – Smyly is enjoying a great season & he has long been a guy that has evidently good stuff. Everyone saw his perfect game broken up in a hilarious manner (not so funny to Smyly I am sure). The peripherals back this start up too as he is generating weak contact & poor contact regularly. 

Marcus Stroman/Jameson Taillon – Stroman looks great early. The K’s are ticking up above career norms on the strength of his Cutter/Slurve. He is out pitching his peripherals some, but he’s looking locked in early. Old friend Jamo has some more ugly surface numbers, but his underlying stats tell a different story. He should see some more success soon.

Hayden Wesneski – All spring Wesneski looked like a true beast & a breakout was coming. The story of the regular season has been different. He has been very hittable so far and frankly, not good. But he does have intriguing stuff and could certainly turn it around.

Adbert Alozay/Brandon Hughes/Mark Leiter Jr/Keegan Thompson – Aka the Bullpen, these guys have all been mostly stellar and the numbers back up their early success.

Minor League Check In 

Christopher Morel – The Swiss Army Knife, Morel has been lighting up AAA to the tune of a .518 wOBA and .219 wRC+. His major flaw is his K issues, but he is not being challenged in AAA and needs a call up.
Matt Mervis – Mervis looks like a bopper. Like Morel, he appears to be ready and waiting. The fact that Hosmer & Mancini are blocking these two is unfortunate. Expect to see them soon.

Cincinnati Reds (10-15)

The Reds have had a pretty good start for a team that has been expected to be poor. The offense has been pretty bad, but the pitching has been quite excellent, ranking top 10 in combined RP/SP WAR.

Lineup

Jonathan India – After a disaster 2022 India looks to be an improved version of his ROY campaign self. He is hitting the ball harder and his plate approach is even improved. Great bounceback season so far here.

T.J. Friedl – Friedl is enjoying early season success but his peripheral numbers aren’t backing it up much. He should be a solid piece, but it is unlikely that he is more than a second division starter in the end. 

Everyone Else – Essentially every other Red has been poor. Not much else to say here,but the exception of India, Friedl, Steer has been replacement level or worse so far. 

Pitching 

Hunter Greene – Greene is a good pitcher. His fatal flaw so far is that he gets hit hard when he is actually hit. The sky is the limit for a guy with his skillset. The underlying numbers say his team defense is hurting him statline & that part is unlikely to change right now, so ultimately his surface numbers could take a hit despite his nastiness.

Graham Ashcraft – In the midst of a breakout (as noted in the preseason look), Ashcraft has some really big stuff. The major knock being lack of K-stuff and some walk issues. It is conceivable that he takes another leap forward by either cutting the walks or finding more Ks.

Nick Lodolo – A very disappointing start for Lodolo. I believe in the talent and think he will get it right, but he has some real issues right now with giving up homers and getting hit pretty hard in general. He’s running a very high BABIP (.471 yuck), but that should adjust as the season goes. The ceiling is unlimited for a pitcher with his stuff & deception.

Alexis Diaz/Alex Young/Lucas Sims – This trio is nasty. Diaz takes after big brother Edwin and is a K machine posting an absurd 50%+ k rate. Young has been spectacular as well with a devastating changeup against RHH & a killer curveball against LHH. Sims has just returned from a long injury layoff, but has looked like his old self so far.

Minor League Check In 

Elly De La Cruz – The mega-prospect missed the start of the season and has just got rolling at AAA. A total unicorn prospect in the mold of Oneil Cruz. The only thing that can stop him is his K issues. He is coming this year to GABF.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand – CES is preparing to kick the door down. He has DRASTICALLY cut his K rate from 25.7% all the way down to 9.5% (!!!) in AAA. The production is wild, a .579 ISO, .649 wOBA, & .293 wRC+. No nits to pick right now. He looks like a dude.

Matt Mclain – A 2021 first round pick, Mclain is going breakout just like CES. Posting power & speed with a good patience profile and hit tool. His AAA line so far has the looks of an exciting regular for the Reds.

St. Louis Cardinals (10-16)

For me, the biggest shock in the start of 2023. St. Louis looks a bit lost.  Poor defense, middling pitching, and good offense. The talent is still here, but the vibes are all messed up, frankly.

Lineup

Paul Goldschmidt – The same as it ever was. Goldy is still a dude. The anchor for this lineup. Not much else to say.

Nolan Gorman – An early season breakout for Gorman. His peripherals suggest his production may jump even more. His approach is still near the danger zone (28.4 k rate, 38.4 whiff rate), but he punishes the ball and his approach is ticking up with raised BB rates & lowered chase rates. Looks like the masher everyone hoped for.

Tyler O’Neill – A personal favorite of mine, the yoked Canadian is off to a slow start. Some of this is due to being in the Skipper’s doghouse, but he is also underperforming his peripherals. Makes high quality contact, hits the ball hard, but the K issues are creeping up. His xwOBA of .360 hard hit rate hints at more coming.

Nolan Arendao – Arenado is having a poor season by his standards. He has been a guy that outperforms his peripherals for a few years now, but this year it has not been the case. Making pretty poor contact so far and not doing much besides playing high quality defense. 

Jordan Walker – The highly talented, hulking prospect broke camp with the team but was recently demoted. In my opinion, the Cardinals mis-managed this situation by not letting him play it out. He was not killing it, but he also did not look terribly overmatched. For now, he is back in AAA and I’m sure we will see him again soon.

Pitching

Jordan Montgomery – JorMont has been his usual self so far and that has been good enough to be the Cardinals best starter. Similarly to Greene, JorMont is being hurt by poor defense, but he looks to be locked in as an underrated & valuable starting pitcher.

Ryan Helsly – Off to a shaky start, the fireballer is getting hit hard early and having an issue with the long ball. Walks have ticked up some & strikeouts down some. I think he will right the ship, but unlikely to repeat 2022’s insane production.

Jack Flaherty – Flaherty is posting solid surface numbers so far, but I’d be wary of buying in too much. He looked dominant at Seattle, but overall, he just does not seem to be the guy everyone hoped for, largely due to his injury riddled past.

Minor League Check In

Matthew Liberatore – Liberatore has added velocity to his game in 2023. It takes him from having a “meh” profile, to a “oh” profile. He is cruising in AAA with his new found velocity bumping his ability to get Ks and his control already being solid. He will be in the rotation at some point, probably sooner than later, in St. Louis.

Tink Hence  – The 20 year old came out of the game looking like a rocketship prospect, but has been shut down with an “undisclosed” injury. Not much information beyond that. He remains one of the most tantalizing pitching prospects in the game. 

Gordon Graceffo – Graceffo enjoyed a breakout in 2022. While he slowed down some upon reaching AA, he looks to be back on track in AAA. Hard to say when to expect a debut, but he looks to be a guy that should get a look in 2023.

And there you have the April edition of Know Your Enemy. It has been a very fun start for Bucs fans, without a doubt. Pittsburgh will not see a single division opponent in May 2023, which seems impossible, but here we are. Things may turn on a dime by the time the May edition comes about, but I hope this piece gives you some more insights into the NLC competition.

Oviedo Struggles As Bucs Drop Rain-Delayed Game 7-2 (20 – 9)

4/30/23- By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on Twitter

Some days, you drop 16 on a team and some days, you just flounder. Today, the team was a bit on the fishy side. Following a 2 ½ hour rain delay, Pirates were sluggish out of the gates, dropping the final game of the series 7-2 and only mustering 6 hits in the game.

Starter Johan Oviedo was missing spots with his fastball, hanging off-speed pitches and getting hit hard across the board. Nine batted balls off him had an exit velocity of 90+ MPH. His final line: 2.1 innings pitched, 9 hits, 7 earned runs, 2 walks and just a single strikeout.

On the other side, Nationals’ starter Josiah Gray fared much better, lasting 6 innings and only surrendering one run off 3 hits, 3 walks and 6 strikeouts. He also generated 13 swings and misses on the day.

News & Notes

  • Despite Oviedo’s rough outing, the bullpen was shutdown behind him:
    • Dauri Moreta – 1.2 innings, 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 strikeout
    • Jose Hernandez – 2 innings, 2 hits, no walks, 2 strikeouts
    • Yohan Ramirez – 1 inning, 2 hits, no walks, 1 strikeout
    • Duane Underwood Jr – 1 inning, 1 hit, 1 walk, 0 strikeouts
  • Austin Hedges narrowly missed hitting his first Pirates home run in the 3rd inning but was confirmed foul after a crew chief review
  • Bryan Reynolds had two hits on the game, driving in the team’s first run. It was his sixth straight game with an RBI.
  • Tucupita Marcano had two hits on the day, moving his batting average to .273 on the season thus far.
  • The team is still surging with steals as Carlos Santana netted his third and Ji-hwan Bae swiped his 11th on the season, tied for 2nd in the National League
  • It was announced earlier in the day that catcher Tyler Heineman – who had been designated for assignment last week – was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for utility man Vinny Capra. Capra was assigned to Indianapolis.
  • The Pirates have the day off tomorrow before they travel to St. Pete and face the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday. First pitch is at 6:40pm. Let’s Go Bucs!

The Incredible, Unexpected, 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates

4-30-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I said this season would be fun, and took a heap of crap for it too, but believe me, THIS, is not what I had in mind. I thought it’d be fun because of all the prospects who’d come up and impact the franchise.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have shot out the gates with a mix of veterans performing as good as, if not better than their histories could have led you to believe they would.

They’ve infused youth, that hasn’t played like youth is supposed to.

There’s being on a roll, and then, there’s what this team is doing.

Here’s the thing folks. No matter what you thought this team would do before the season, let it go. Take in the new information, and reevaluate now. This is just a clear cut case of everyone missing a whole lot of what was in front of us, because if you really look at it, the biggest surprise isn’t that all these guys are performing at the most favorable of the “if” predictions, it’s that some have completely blown it out of the water.

Your Pirates are 4th in baseball for runs scored at 154, right behind the Red Sox they swept. They’re 4th in hits with 250 already. Doubles? Oh, 3rd place, 2 behind the lead.

Triples? Tops in the Bigs with 8. 9th in Homeruns with 34. 5th in average, 3rd in OBP, 2nd in Slug and OPS, the offense has simply been a juggernaut, and folks, here’s the kicker for a whole lot of us, if we were super optimistic, it was because of Oneil Cruz, and he is in a walking boot.

Then there’s the pitching. You might have thought JT Brubaker would be a work horse, but he’s gone. You might have thought Mitch Keller would be good, but not an Ace. No matter what, you were probably thinking the pitching staff would be an issue until we saw the kids come up.

Um, wrong again.

The entire staff, meaning rotation and bullpen are 5th in the league in ERA at 3.41. Tops for saves with 13, there are only 7 teams who’ve given up less runs. Only 4 teams have allowed fewer home runs.

Best record in the National League at 20-8, second only to the Tampa Bay Rays in all of baseball, and these two teams will go head to head starting Tuesday in St. Pete.

Now, I think most people can accept they weren’t right, but to be this not right, well, that brings about questions of sustainability. Has to be a fluke right?

Yeah, but what’s the fluke?

Let’s start with the rotation.

Mitch Keller emerged in 2022, and largely, he’s doing what we hoped he would in 2023, taking a step, probably still has more room before reaching his ceiling honestly.

Roansy Contreras many were ready to call him an ace already, or at least the future ace, and folks, he looks like he’s harnessed some things that make him super dangerous.

Johan Oviedo went from not in the starting rotation to being called into duty for Brubaker. All he’s done is shoved since his first inning of work in 2023. His “Holy Diver” Slider, might be the most untouchable pitch in the game right now, and he has staff horse written all over him.

Rich Hill, folks, this is what Dick Mountain does. Laugh at his age all you want, this man has a track record, an incredibly consistent track record, he has done this, and he will keep doing this.

Vince Velasquez went from the “Our Guy Vinny” meme to um, well, Our Guy Vinny. He’s on an 18 consecutive scoreless inning streak and the 3rd straight season the Pirates have acquired a guy nobody thought about as help for the rotation and turned him into help.

Backing all of this is Luis Ortiz, who has reportedly put in the work and become comfortable with the changeup he so desperately needed to be an MLB starter. Now the issue is, where? The idea of him being manipulated, yeah, maybe that was the plan, but now it’s about a starting rotation you’d be a complete fool to mess with. Sure is nice to have that backing though, they’ll undoubtedly need it.

Every move Ben Cherington has made this offseason has either worked or an injury caused us to not see it play out.

Every button Derek Shelton has pushed, has been the right one.

I can honestly say, with a 20-8 record, they probably gave away 2-3 games too. That’s how friggin’ good this team is.

This is how good they’ve been. We spent maybe 2 days celebrating the team locking up Bryan Reynolds through the end of the decade with a team record 9 figure deal.

We’ve almost completely ignored that second year player Jack Suwinski is on pace for a 30/30 season. Connor Joe has commanded starting time, how can you even consider taking his bat out of the lineup?

Call up Mark Mathias? 2 bad games, and then yup, join the hitting party. Call Up Miguel Andujar? How about 2 homers in his first two games, and folks, this dude is going to sit more than he plays, again, that’s how good they are right now.

The veterans have helped this team become a team. Easily the closest group I’ve seen in a Pittsburgh dugout since 2013.

After Oneil Cruz was injured, most fans (and me) figured, ok, we’ll see them slow down now a bit. Well, Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen saw that eventuality too, and called a team meeting to immediately squash it. Nobody was going to crawl under the blanket and retreat to their shell, no, they were going to make when he returns matter.

This team could very well have a deadline acquisition this year who’s 6’7″ tall, hits the hell out of the ball and adds a whole new dimension to their already ass kicking offense.

Do you really want to keep sitting on the sideline waiting for them to fail so you can be right?

So, how did we miss so badly?

For one thing, many look at the numbers from young players the year before and rarely give them a chance to actually, you know, improve. Especially costly to the prediction game when the Pirates have so very many players like that, and they’re all seemingly doing just that.

The veterans were supposed to all be shells of their former greatness, or goodness as the case may be, instead, they’ve improved, and almost leaching the energy off their younger counterparts.

Honestly, it’s hard to even complain about Endy Rodriguez not being here. Austin Hedges has been simply incredible with this staff and bluntly, Jason Delay has hit, probably more than we should expect a rookie to hit anyway. No more real complaints about Travis Swaggerty not making it out of Spring, I mean how can you say they were wrong about any choice they made there?

Andy Haines stunk, now he might be god. Oscar Marin had something to prove to some, now I’m not sure how you question what he’s become and the reputation he’s built. Derek Shelton didn’t know how to manage, now you have to hesitate to even question anything he does, because time and time again, you’d be proven wrong.

Ben Cherington didn’t know what the hell he was doing bringing in all these scraps, and this evil bastard was manipulating prospects, and yet he too has probably not made a real mistake since maybe the Clay Holmes trade.

Hell, even Bob Nutting has now spent some significant money, pledged to spend more, and on top of that was instrumental in Andrew McCutchen coming back and Bryan Reynolds essentially giving his career to Pittsburgh.

Ladies and Gentlemen, this is as real as real gets.

Anything can happen in baseball, but it seems to me, the league at large is not nearly as prepared to exploit baseball’s new rules as the Pittsburgh Pirates. Don’t think I’m applying championship aspirations quite yet, but it reminds me of when Mike Sullivan first joined the Penguins and with youth and speed they skated circles around a league mired in a heavy and slow style of play.

The Pirates are athletic and capable of applying pressure to opposing defenses all game long, quite frankly, teams don’t know how to combat it.

Will they learn? Of course they will, and the Pirates will simply have to keep doing it too well to be stopped.

12 games over .500 doesn’t happen by accident, even in April. And claiming luck as the prevailing reason, well, that just ignores reality.

Don’t buy in yet? Don’t worry, the Baseball World doesn’t know what to make of it either quite yet. One thing is for sure, they certainly won’t be quietly entering ballparks as the hapless and harmless Pittsburgh Pirates most people circled on their schedule back in March.

In fact, it’s far more likely this Pirates team embarrasses their opponent than lose a tight one.

In 2022, the Pirates had a run differential of -226 and in April they’ve already reached +53. That’s good for 3rd in the league, but the number one team Tampa, is at +106.

You can’t get a better measuring stick.

Pirates Put An Exclamation Point On The Evening: (20-8)

4-29-23- By Craig W. Toth – @BucsBasement on Twitter

When a team is feeling it-and I mean really feeling it-the chances of slowing them down are slim to none. This evening your Pittsburgh Pirates were a runaway freight train. In their path was the unfortunate victim in the form of the Washington Nationals; led by old friend Chad Kuhl.

From the onset the Pirates seemed on the verge of breaking out, but were held to only one run scored in each of the first two innings.

Meanwhile, Our Guy Vinny’s only blemishes were a couple of singles and a pitch that got away from him; which CJ Abrams didn’t really try all that hard to avoid.

It was at this point that the Pirates bats really started to break the Nationals down, as doubles from Bryan Reynolds. Carlos Santana and Jack Suwinki doubled Pittsburgh’s lead. But, obviously there were far from finishing what they started; in a game that is the perfect example of not really being able to do anything wrong, while never underestimating what can happen.

You know like Drew Maggi’s first hit as a Major Leaguer; and his first RBI.

Followed-of course-by another hit; a double this time around.

Top it off with a grand slam by Jack Suwinski, and it just seemed too good to be true; especially since the Pirates have been on the receiving end of games like this more times than I can count over the past three seasons.

In the end, reliever Yohan Ramirez would surrender a solo shot in the bottom of the 9th. However, it didn’t even make a dent, as the Pirates absolutely steamrolled the Nationals 16-1, in their 20th victory before the month of May.

News & Notes

  • Vince Velasquez now has 4 straight quality starts, and has not allowed a run since the first inning of the contest against Colorado last Tuesday-April 18th. That’s 18 innings of scoreless baseball for Our Guy Vinny. Today his final line was 6IP/5H/0ER/0BB/5K.
  • Cody Bolton made his Major League Debut, striking out one and allowing just one hit over 2 innings of work.
  • The recently selected Miguel Andujar continued the hot start that began earlier in the day with his second homer in as many games.
  • Jack Suwinski has been absolutely on fire over the past 3 weeks; slashing .341/.446/.773 with 5 homers, a 213 wRC+ and a 17.9% BB% to 25% K-rate. Clearly all of these numbers are extremely impressive, however the balance between walks and strikeouts is the most promising to me.
  • Honestly, what in the world has gotten into Jason Delay? Yes, it still only 47 plate appearances, but there’s no way anyone saw a .390 AVG and a 1.045 OPS coming from Delay.
  • Carlos Santana has found the Fountain of Youth over the first month of the season. From his unexpected presence on the base paths, to his play at first base, Santana has been a spark plug for the team on the field, and in the clubhouse. Oh by the way he is also batting .281 with a .790 OPS with 2 homers and stolen bases in his first 108 plate appearances.

The Pirates go for the sweep in D.C. tomorrow at 1:35 PM. For Pittsburgh, Johan Oviedo (2-1/3.03 ERA/1.21 WHIP) takes the bump against Josiah Gray (1-4/2.93 ERA/1.34 WHIP) for the Nationals.

Game 1 Pirates Slug Nationals 6-3 Powered by Freshly Recalled Miguel Andujar: (19-8)

4/29/23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I love double headers, but day/night double headers, not so much. Once you go through a baseball game, if the flow is broken its hard for everyone to get into it for game two.

But here we are, can’t control the weather.

The Bucs sent Rich Hill to the mound today against Patrick Corbin facing the only team he likes facing.

Rich Hill danced through the raindrops all day. He escaped multiple jams and handed off a 4-3 lead after 6 1/3 innings. It’s truly fun to watch him pitch, when he’s feeling good he can throw anything, anytime he wants and 2 or 3 variations of each pitch on top of that.

So how did they build up this lead? Connor Joe and Miguel Andujar.

In the 8th the Pirates tried to get some insurance. Andujar led off with a walk, Jack Suwinski pinch ran for him, Marcano was hit on the pinky, and stayed in the game, keep an eye on that, swelling would be normal at least. Bae bunted and reached base to load em with nobody out.

Table set.

For Hedges and he walks in 1. 5-3, turkey still on the table. Most of this came off former Bucco Anthony Banda and he was pulled in favor of Ramirez.

The Pirates would add another on a sac fly by Bryan Reynolds to make it 6-3 before it was time for the Colin Holderman redemption outing.

Holderman whizzed through the 8th on 11 pitches.

Unable to add anything more, David Bednar was called on to finish the job. He’s been damn near unhittable, an 0.75 ERA and a 0.750 WHIP in his 12 innings of work entering this contest looking to hold a 3 run lead and give his club a chance to end the night with 20 wins.

News & Notes

  • Rich Hill completed another 6 1/3 innings with 3 runs or less outing today. AKA, another Quality Start for this pitching staff. That’s 16. For perspective, last April the Pirates starters had exactly zero.
  • Prior to the game, Miguel Andujar was brought up, to make room on the 40, Wil Crowe was placed on the 60-day IL with shoulder discomfort. This is about timing. With a pitcher, something like this will get you shelved for 3-4 weeks minimally, then you have to rehab.
  • Drew Maggi was optioned (not DFA’d) to AA Altoona, but is active for both games today as in a Double Header you get a 27th man. For the time being, this will keep him on the 40-man, meaning should they choose, calling him back up is a simple transaction.
  • Miguel Andujar made his Pirates debut today and went 2 for 3 with a walk and 3 RBI, 2 of which came on a 2 run homerun to give the Pirates back the lead they’d just relinquished.
  • Andrew McCutchen just passed Dave Parker for 7th place on the all time list for Pirates Doubles.
  • Stephen Strasburg has only made 8 starts since signing his new deal with Washington.
  • David Bednar has 9 saves now. Here’s how he stacks up against the league.
  • Craig Toth will have you covered for the Night Cap

The 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates: A Feel-Good Story, or a Winning Team?

4-29-23 – By Christian Wolf – @CWolfPGH on Twitter

The Pirates have been the surprise of baseball to open 2023, and truly, how has this happened?

It’s only April. The season is not even 20% of the way through, but the Pittsburgh Pirates have emerged as the early surprise of the 2023 baseball season. They’ve completed three sweeps within the first month, just one short of the four sweeps they had in the entire 2022 season. Free agent signings Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen have been on fire to start the season, and Connor Joe, acquired in a trade with the Rockies, has provided a start that few, if any, foresaw coming.

For many fans, it’s too early to declare this team a winner, but they also want to know if it’s time to get excited and what the potential for the Pirates this season really is. Many had the Pirates written off as a 65-70 win team, but if this early start has shown us anything, it’s that the ceiling may be a little higher than that. The wins the Pirates have gathered in this first month have not been from fluky, undeserving performances. The team as a whole has contributed to this early success. But how long can the Pirates keep this up? Can they keep this up? It’s not uncommon for teams to start hot and give the impression of a winner, and then crumble. So, what separates teams that crumble from the ones that stay successful? Well, let’s take a look.

I’m not going to get super in-depth with numbers. Anyone with two eyes watching the Pirates can see the team is playing solid, well-rounded baseball. From the starting rotation to the lineup, everyone has contributed in some way. It’s deeper than that. Way deeper than that. Having players that can hit the ball well alone isn’t why this team is winning. The playing style and culture the team has built is the core reason for this team’s success.

For instance, let’s look at Austin Hedges. The value he brings behind the plate overshadows his ugly .437 OPS. In many games, the Pirates’ ability to win has hinged on limiting damage in tight spots. Pirates pitchers are allowing opponents to bat .221 with RISP, which is the lowest in the National League, and Hedges has been the difference maker. Oftentimes, a simple mound visit dictates whether opposing teams get one run or three runs in tight situations. Johan Oviedo, Roansy Contreras, and Mitch Keller, while all very talented, have undeniably benefited from Hedges being behind the plate. He’s been in situations many other catchers haven’t, and he can navigate through trouble extremely well. And that is why Hedges needs to be in the lineup. And again, you won’t find a single person praising his offense. It’s ugly, and ugly often. But his defense wins the Pirates’ games and often goes unnoticed.

Hedges is just one of many examples that proved a high-powered offense isn’t everything. Ji-Hwan Bae? He has the ability to turn his singles into instant doubles with his speed on the bases. Carlos Santana? He’s helping the teams’ young infielders with his impressive defense at first base. Andrew McCutchen? He’s brought a veteran presence and comfort level to the locker room that players have fallen in love with. This is a team that doesn’t have a nagging worry in the back of their mind that this season doesn’t matter. They’re in it to win. Every single night.

Of course, you need a great offense to win. You need dependable starting pitching. You need a reliable bullpen. The Pirates’ offense and rotation have been outstanding to open the season and have absolutely performed well enough to win games. The paper talent on this 2023 Pirates team is solid, especially compared to the Pirates’ teams over the past few seasons. But if it isn’t clear by now, I don’t think that’s why they’ve seen so much early success.

Hedges’ experience isn’t going anywhere. Santana’s defense isn’t going anywhere. Bae’s going to be fast for a very long time. McCutchen is going to be here for the remainder of the season. And Derek Shelton, boy, if you think he doesn’t make an impact on his players, you are dead wrong. To say Shelton is loved by the team is an understatement. The culture he has built over his tenure as manager has brought more value than the average fan will ever understand. His recent extension to continue being the Bucs’ manager was a key, underrated, and necessary move to the team’s success moving forward.

And this, THIS is why I believe this early Pirates success this year is, to a degree, sustainable. The Pirates are not a World Series contender. But for this 2023 season, they don’t need to be. They need to pass several tests, and they’ve gotten straight A’s so far. They have the tools and resources outside of the world of home runs and powerful pitching to win games. Other teams have no speed. Other teams have limited experience where it matters. Some teams play for a manager they have no personal liking for.

The success in areas often overlooked are glowing. They need to glow. And the Pirates are benefiting from it. Good for the team, good for the fans, and good for Major League Baseball. I hope, both this year and beyond, Pirates’ success brings hope that Pittsburgh can be a big-league baseball town for a long time to come.

Minor League New and Brews: Talking Everything Bradenton with Eric Garfield

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-bdjg5-13f48e5

Craig is joined this week by Eric Garfield (aka @Eric_Birdland) of the Florida Prospect Report Podcast to talk about development in the lower minors, Extended Spring Training and some players to watch in Bradenton and the FCL. 

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and is a huge Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Fan; especially when it comes to the Farm System. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Minor League Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals Series Preview

4-28-23 – By Christian Wolf – @CWolfPGH on Twitter

After an exciting series against the Dodgers, the Pirates hit the road to Washington to begin a six-game road trip.

When & Who:

Pittsburgh Pirates (18-8) at Washington Nationals (9-15)

Game 1 – (4/28 7:05 EST)

Probable Pitchers:

For the Pirates – Rich Hill (2-2, 4.85 ERA)

For the Nationals – Chad Kuhl (0-1, 7.36 ERA)

Game 2 – (4/29, 1:05 EST)

Probable Pitchers:

For the Pirates – Vince Velasquez (3-2, 3.76 ERA)

For the Nationals – Patrick Corbin (1-3, 5.88 ERA)

Game 3 – (4/30, 1:35 EST)

Probable Pitchers:

For the Pirates – Johan Oviedo (2-1, 3.03 ERA)

For the Nationals –  Josiah Gray (1-4, 2.93 ERA)

Team Trends

The Nationals, after starting the season 5-13, have put together a string of recent success, winning back-to-back series on the road against the Twins and Mets. The Nationals rotation has improved as of late, currently sitting 16th in MLB with a 4.45 ERA, but 25th in MLB in strikeouts with 110. The offense has been an issue, with the team OPS ranking 26th in baseball at .665. The Nationals also rank 29th in MLB with just 14 home runs on the season. But, despite these lackluster numbers, the back-to-back series wins shouldn’t be ignored, and the Nationals are hot going up against another hot team.

That other hot team would be the Pirates, coming into this series winners of 9 of their past 10 games, with both the offense and pitching staff giving beautiful work throughout the majority of the season. The Pirates’ offense has put together 223 hits as a team, good for 7th in MLB, and once they get on the bases, they are to contain. The Bucs lead all of MLB with 37 stolen bases, and for context, the 2nd best team in steals is Cleveland with 31. (Side note – can you believe the Twins only have two stolen bases on the year??). Meanwhile, the Pirates rotation ranks 7th in MLB with its 3.72 ERA and ranks among the top 10 of the league in many other categories including strikeouts, average against, and innings pitched.

Who’s Hot

For the Nationals – Keibert Ruiz: The Nationals catcher collected three hits and a walk Tuesday in the Nationals’ 5-0 win over the Mets and also reached base twice on Wednesday. Ruiz is carrying a five-game hitting streak into the series against the Pirates, with his average at .284 and OPS at .763.

For the Pirates – Jack Suwinski: What a turnaround for the Pirates outfielder. Suwinski is carrying a five-game hitting streak into this series and has looked much better at the plate after a slow start. He’s been generating walks and being much more patient at the dish. Suwinski not only has a .276 average with five home runs, but his OPS is sitting exactly at 1.000 for the season.  

Who’s Not

For the Nationals – Dominic Smith: Smith has had a slow start to the season, registering a .232 average and just a .567 OPS. He’s gone just 2 for 12 in his last three games, including three strikeouts and just one walk. He also has yet to record a home run this season.

For the Pirates – Connor Joe: Although Joe homered in the Pirates’ 6-2 win over the Dodgers Thursday, that was his first hit in his past five games, and went just 1 for 13 against the Dodgers, racking up five strikeouts and no walks.

Series Overview & Prediction

The Pirates have won nine of ten, but the Nationals have surprised recently and took back-to-back series on the road against the Twins and Mets. The Nationals are not a talented team on the surface, but they have done enough as of late to win some ball games. But the Pirates are on a tear, and if it wasn’t for a late home run given up by the Bucs’ bullpen, the Pirates very well might be on a ten-game winning streak. When the rotation and offense are clicking, wins rack up fast, and the Pirates have shown that.

The Nationals putting Chad Kuhl and Patrick Corbin on the mound for two of the three games does not inspire a lot of confidence, and the Bucs are mashing the ball, scoring six runs or more in each of the games against the Dodgers. Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill have been solid as of late as well.

The vibes surrounding the Pirates are thrilling. The team has signed Bryan Reynolds long-term, is leading the NL Central, and is on the radar for its opponents on the schedule. It’s a great feeling, and Pittsburgh deserves it.

Why not keep it going? I think the Bucs will take two of three from Washington. The team has not shown any signs of slowing down, and heading to Washington should not change that.

Through The Prospect Porthole: Henry Davis’ Path To Pittsburgh

4-27-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

Over the past week and change I have seen comments about Henry Davis ranging from him being the Pirates Designated Hitter of the Future to Endy Rodriguez’s eventual back-up, and from the savior of the organization to a bust that will ultimately fizzle out as the season progresses. Some have even gone as far as to suggest that they move him off the position immediately because he can’t be a Major League Catcher; better serving the team as a 1st Baseman and/or Right Fielder.

Now, I guess that this chatter is mostly the result of being Ben Cherington’s first 1:1 Draft Pick. Still, I don’t know how any of these statements can be made until we see a full-season from the former Louisville backstop, along with the development of Endy at Triple-A; a process which is on hold at the moment due to a IL stint.

For those of you that have been living under a rock-or simply just don’t follow the Pirates Farm System-Top Catching Prospect Endy Rodriguez was removed from the 8th inning of the Indianapolis Indians game against Memphis on Thursday April 20th; and was subsequently placed on the 7-Day IL with a forearm strain the following day.

After being evaluated by doctors in Pittsburgh it was reported today-Thursday April 27th-that he would be able to DH in 3 to 4 days, and would be back behind the dish in 7 to 10 days.

Obviously it is early in the season, so this shouldn’t have much of an effect on the Pirates plans for this duo; although, it might make sense to look at exactly how we got here, before we discuss how this situation could progress.

Although he was not in the original group that arrived in Altoona, the Pirates 1:1 in 2022 Davis would make his way north from Greensboro in short order, after 100 plate appearances in High-A; during which he slashed .342/.450/.585 with 5 homers and what would be 9 critical hit by pitches.

Regrettably this later trend would continue-even with the promotion-as he was hit by a pitch in his first Double-A plate appearance. 

However, Davis would just shake it off, and go yard a couple of trips to the plate later.

Then two days later, he would be hit by a pitch yet again. Only this time he wouldn’t return to the field for almost a month, due to a non-displaced left wrist fracture. Eventually returning to the Curve lineup on June 11th. after two rehab starts in the FCL and Bradenton.

It should be noted that this wasn’t Davis’ first experience on the IL, as his 2021 campaign was cut short after 31 plate appearances due to an oblique injury.

Over the next few weeks-and 15 games-Davis would struggle mightily by slashing .175/.299/.316 with a 75 wRC+; but, still hit a homer and 5 doubles before ending up back on the IL with wrist soreness. 

This time it would be a month and half before he reappeared in Altoona; apparently fully healthy this go-around.

Over the final 18 games of the year he would bat .254 with a .778 OPS, 3 homers, 3 doubles and a 114 wRC+.

Due to missing significant time-once the season was over-Davis found his way to the Arizona Fall League; where he continued to perform by posting a .875 OPS, and walking (10) almost as much as he struck out (11).

In spite of this late season surge, it really shouldn’t have been a surprise that Davis ended back in Altoona, in order to get regular reps behind the plate; as stated by Cherington.

As far as Endy is concerned, we should all know by now that he came over from the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade; technically because of the Padres moving Joey Lucchesi as part of this deal. The assumption at the time was that the Padres were unwilling to part with one of their catchers, at least one the Pirates wanted so a third team was brought in to get what Cherington was looking for, in form of the Mets #14 Prospect.

When he arrived, Endy was only 20-ok almost 21-and spent his first season in MiLB back in 2019. As switch hitter, he has racked up a .840 OPS and a .389 OBP between the FCL and the DSL.

During 2021-spent entirely in Low-A Bradenton-Endy slashed .294/.380/.512 with 15 homers; yet; nothing could have really prepared Pirates Fans for what would happen in 2022.

Across three levels-from Greensboro to Altoona, and finally Indianapolis-he would combine for a .323/.407/.590 slash line, with 25 homers and 68 total extra base hits; on his way to being the Pirates Minor League Player of the Year, and leapfrogging Davis in the process. Which brings us pretty close to present day.

Thus far-in the course of a few weeks-Davis is slashing .265/.438/.633 with 5 homers, a 196 wRC+ and a 20.3% BB to 18.8% K-rate across 64 plate appearances. On the other hand, Endy batting .263 with a .789 OPS, three homers, a 98 wRC+ and a 9.1% BB to 12.1% K-rate. But-and it’s a Big But-Endy is on the 40-Man, and is due to be back fully in a little over a week.

So, what’s Henry’s path to Pittsburgh?

Well, the first thing that comes to mind is health.

After that, it’s continuing to perform in Altoona, and Indianapolis once he is promoted; likely in conjunction with Endy’s call-up to Pittsburgh.

Then maybe he gets a cup of coffee with the Pirates toward the end of the season; in all probability as a DH.

I know, that’s a lot of information to come to the conclusion that many of us already arrived at during the off-season, and into Spring Training.

Clearly the situation could change, but that would honestly require either Davis or Endy dropping off a cliff performance wise; or a more serious injury. Neither of which appears to be a likely scenario currently.

As with most things prospect related; it is simply a waiting game.

Keller’s 10 Strikeouts Lead Pirates To Series Win Over Dodgers 6-2: (18-8)

04/27/23 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_Ethan on Twitter

It’s not about how you get knocked down, its about how you get back up.

After losing the opening game of the series to the LA Dodgers on Tuesday, the Pittsburgh Pirates won the final two games of the series, including a 10-strikeout outing from Mitch Keller on Thursday in a 6-2 win over LA.

The Dodgers would jump on Keller early, scoring two early runs in the top of the first, but that’s about all they would get off Keller over his six innings of work that included double-digit strikeouts and only five hits.

Pittsburgh would answer right back in the first with three runs of their own from a Bryan Reynolds single, a Rodolfo Castro sac-fly and a check-swing single from Jack Suwinski.

Keller and Urias would settle the offenses for quite awhile, but Connor Joe would homer in the sixth inning to score Andrew McCutchen to extend the lead to 5-2, but Rodolfo Castro didn’t think that was enough as he homered the next at-bat to extend the lead to 6-2.

Duane Underwood Jr., Jose Hernandez and David Bednar would combine for three perfect innings of work, each getting one strikeout to their name and David Bednar keeping pace among the NL lead in saves.

On top of all this, the story of Drew Maggi continued, as he got the start at 3B today to continue his feel good story after being called up on Sunday and receiving his first MLB action on Wednesday night.

The Pirates move to 18-8, the first time they’ve been ten games over .500 since 2015 and head to D.C. to take on the Washington Nationals for three games.

News & Notes

  • Mitch Keller line: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 SO
  • Julio Urias line: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO
  • Pirates move to 10-plus games over .500 for first time since 2015
  • Pirates have won seven of their last eight against the Dodgers dating back to last season