Top 5 Pirates Prospects: Indianapolis Indians

There is freedom within
There is freedom without
Try to catch the deluge in a paper cup
There’s a battle ahead
Many battles are lost
But you’ll never see the end of the road
While you’re travelling with me

It is truly a Crowded House in the Circle City.

There were always going to be players that were sent down to Indianapolis, while others would start to put pressure on them from Altoona; potentially landing there due to roster constraints-limited positions, at bats and innings-with the Indians.

Clearly some of these decisions were bound to cause frustration-and out-lash-within the Pirates Fanbase; even though most were inevitable.

All the way back in December, Manager Derek Shelton didn’t hesitate to punctuate that Endy Rodriguez-and Henry Davis-would start the 2023 Season in the Minors; yet, some have still gone on a personal crusade since this move was recently made.

Almost immediately after this, the target was expanded to include Luis Ortiz, and now Johan Oviedo; both of which were obvious options to start the season in Indianapolis. Although, as of right now the jury is still out on Oviedo’s fate.

Nevertheless, I feel like it is time to move on, as this wasn’t meant to be another blog post on service time manipulation.

Who eventually ends up in an Indians uniform is really all that matters at this point; along with the expectations and hope(s) that exist for each of these players. Because in the end, continued strong performance(s) and/or struggles will ultimately determine the future.

1) Malcom Nunez-1B/DH

Even tough I don’t believe any player is ever truly blocked, there is one position on the Pittsburgh Pirates Roster that never even comes up in these conversations. Since the days of Kevin Young no player has really taken ahold of the first base bag, and not given it up for an extended period of time; while generally being successful at the same time.

Because of this overall void in Pirates Organization we saw 44 different first baseman deployed from 2004 through 2016. That was until Josh Bell came along, which didn’t go very well defensively-or offensively for that matter out outside of a near historic during the first half of 2019-as evidenced by his collective -26 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) at the position for Pittsburgh.

Since that time we have seen the likes of Colin Moran, Erik Gonzalez, Phillip Evans, Yoshi Tsutsugo, John Nogowski, Will Craig, Josh Van Meter, Bligh Madris, Josh Van Meter, Zack Collins and Michael Chavis all get their chances; and that was just during the last two seasons.

In 2022 first base was candidly The Black Hole on the roster, as they totaled -3.0 fWAR for the year.

Now-at least for the first few months of 2023-the void has been filled with veterans Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi, with Connor Joe possibly mixed in.

But, what about the end of this season, and more importantly beyond?

Well, that’s where the opportunity lies for Nunez.

The only issue-that can’t be ignored-is that he just started regularly playing the position last season; compiling 756 innings of work between Springfield and Altoona. Still, before any of that is sorted out, Ben Cherington and Company will have to make sure the bat will play.

If you have read any of my previous articles containing my feelings on Nuñez-Spring Training Impact, Power Bats and Peaking My Interest -you already know how I feel.

Nunez slashed .255/.360/.463 with a 110 wRC+ and .208 ISO in Springfield, and then went on to slash .286/.381/.476 with a 134 wRC+ and .190 ISO in Altoona.

On another encouraging note, that spread across both organizations, is that Nunez saw his walk rate surge to 13.7% and 13.5% respectively, while his strikeout rate only pushed slightly over 20%; or not bad at all if he is to be considered a power hitter.

Toward the tail end of the season, he did get a cup of coffee with Indianapolis; blasting another homer, and generating almost as man walks (4) as strikeouts (5).

2) Cal Mitchell-OF

During this current Spring Training, the names of two outfield prospects have been mentioned much more than any other. To anyone who has been paying attention, you will know Cal Mitchell isn’t one of them.

Since getting an early look at the beginning of Grapefruit League play, Mitchell has clearly fallen behind Travis Swaggerty and Canaan Smith-Njigba for the fourth-or fifth-outfield spot on the 26-Man Major League Roster.

At this point in time no one is questioning whether or not Cal can hit; even with his .226/.286/.349 slash line and 5 homers in 232 plate appearances with the Pirates last season.

For me-and probably others-I look at his track record in the Minors.

In 1873 plate appearances Mitchell has slashed. 277/.337/.430 with 48 homers and 155 total extra base hits.

Unfortunately his defense hasn’t always tracked inline with this offensive production; even though he has shown the ability to dabble in the dramatics.

Still only 24 years old, time has not run on the Rancho Bernardo product. The talent pool has simply gotten deeper.

3) Quinn Priester/Mike Burrows-RHP

It’s hard not to mention these two Pirates Pitching Prospects in the same breath, when discussing who could be the next in line for the Big League Ball Club’s future rotation.

With his recent addition to the 40-man, Burrows seems to have a leg-or more accurately an arm-up on Priester; yet, more than likely sits behind Johan Oviedo and Luis Ortiz to get a shot at the starting rotation.

When it comes to Priester’s he is less than a year younger than Burrows, but comes with the 1st Round Tag; which he has lived up to for the most part, in my humble opinion.

Following the 2020 layoff he has posted a 3.04 ERA and a 1.239 WHIP with Greensboro in 2021, and a 2.87 ERA and a 1.195 ERA in Altoona this past year, after an oblique injury delayed the start of his season.

As far as Burrows is concerned, his prospect stock has only continued to rise. And, with good reason.

In 49 limited innings-due to an oblique injury-he put up a 2.20 ERA and a .898 WHIP with the Grasshoppers. He followed this up with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.096 WHIP to start last season in Altoona; ultimately earning a promotion to Triple-A Indianapolis.

Sadly, this assignment would not go as smoothly as his last two. After a couple of strong starts, Burrows would start to get hit around a little bit, eventually ending up on the IL toward the end of the season with shoulder inflammation.

All in all his time with Indianapolis was fairly underwhelming, as he ended up with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.346 WHIP.

To his credit he kept on grinding, even into the offseason; adding a new slider to go with his above average curveball-a pitch I wrote about at length prior to last season.

At the moment, I would put Priester slightly above Priester; mostly due to the aforementioned 40-Man designation.

4) Carmen Mlodzinski-RHP

Since being selected in 2020, with the 31st Overall Draft Pick, Mlodzinski has been viewed and deployed as a starter. That all seems to have changed in the past couple of weeks, but not necessarily based on how he has performed.

Sure a 4.51 ERA, with a 1.389 WHIP isn’t ideal, yet it wasn’t terrible either.

Still, it obviously seemed like there might be more to unlock in another role; at least as it pertained to the Pirates train of thought.

A little over a week ago Jason Mackey-Pirates Beat Writer from the Post-Gazette-hinted at the possibility of Mlodzinski moving to the bullpen. He then reaffirmed his impressions of Pittsburgh’s possible intentions on this week’s episode of Bucs In The Basement .

In my opinion, just because he is moved into a bullpen role now, it doesn’t mean he will stay there forever.

However, it’s hard to argue how his stuff could play as a reliever.

5) Endy Rodriguez-C/1B/2B/OF

Some may see this as a case of saving the best for last; which it obviously could turn out to be. However for me, it feels little bit more like avoiding a conversation about the elephant in room.

Yes, I feel like Endy’s bat could play in the Majors right now.

In his Minor League Career, Endy has struck out at a rate of 18.0%, while walking 11.8% of the time. At the moment his OPS is .927, and his wRC+ has never dipped lower 140 in the Pirates Organization.

I guess, in my mind, it comes down to whether or not the Pirates want to keep him at catcher; at least for the foreseeable future. If that’s the goal, Triple-A might be the best option, in order to get him regular innings behind the plate.

I know… “here’s your boot sir”.

Conclusion

For the first time in I don’t know how many years, Indianapolis will be filled with more prospects-and potential Major Leaguers-as opposed to Quad-A depth and option-able fodder.

Obviously, not every player will work out, but it sure is nice to have reasonable options.

Know Your Enemies – Preseason Edition

3-28-23 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter

Editor’s Note: This piece represents volume 1 of a monthly series that focuses on how the Pirates competition in the NL Central is trending. Both from a prospect development and MLB product standpoint. Knowing where your team is headed, at least partially is about where your division mates are headed. Corey’s attention to detail on this stuff I think you’ll find intriguing. Enjoy! – Gary

Last July, Gary and I came together in an attempt to forecast the future of the rest of the NL Central. As the offseason progressed, I thought that it might be a worthwhile exercise to take this column and zoom out to the 30,000 foot view. The purpose being to tweak the original concept and use it to look backwards at the previous month of the season, and in doing so, attempt to establish the landscape as the season unfolds. Hopefully such an exercise will be useful in keeping folks abreast to how things are going with our rivals and get a feel for how what has happened might impact the rest of the season as the games march on. 

As it stands, the 2023 regular season grows ever closer, so let’s go on a brief tour around the NL Central and take the initial temperature of Pittsburgh’s divisional foes. For our preseason look I will try to remain limited to 4 items; Pitching, Lineup, Outlook, & 1 Prediction for each team. Teams will be laid out below in the order of where I believe they are in the NLC hierarchy before we play ball.

Let’s get going!

St. Louis Cardinals (86-76 per FanGraphs projections)

St. Louis is the class of the division. While they are not an absolute juggernaut, they have some weaknesses, they are the preseason favorite.

Pitching

Speaking of those weaknesses, I think starting pitching is one. The rotation appears to be:

Adam Wainwright

Miles Mikolas

Jordan Montgomery

Jack Flaherty

Steven Matz

The staff is still anchored by Methusala, I mean, Adam Wainwright. It is easy to joke about his advanced age, but he is still an effective MLB arm capable of frustrating opposing hitters. Miles Mikolas had a terrific 2022 and should be able to post another respectable 2+ WAR season again. Next up is arguably one of the best trade deadline acquisitions of 2022, Jordan Montgomery. JorMont had immediate success after the Yankees inexplicably sent him to the Cardinals, pitching to the tune of a 3.11 ERA & 61/13 strikeout to walks across 63 frames. He should continue to be, maybe their best arm, in 2023.

The final two arms are definitely a little unknown. Matz has had a strong spring and has been telling beat reporters that he feels the best he has in his entire career. Matz has been productive in the recent past & his results were mixed in his 15 starts in 2022, but his peripherals point to him possibly getting things back on track in 2023. 

Even lesser known is Jack Flaherty. At one point it was assumed Flaherty was destined to become the staff ace in St. Louis, but his career has gone a bit off track due to various injuries since pre-COVID season.  He has had an unspectacular Spring and his future is still unclear.

The St. Louis bullpen is strong behind flame-thrower & maybe the biggest relief breakout of 2022, Ryan Helsley. I won’t highlight the entire group, but they have some real talent there in Helsley, Gallegos, Hicks, & co.

Lineup

The Cards boast one of the deepest lineups in the division. Not only are they returning top end veteran talent in Paul Goldschmidt & Nolan Arenado, but they also went out and signed Willson Contreras to replace Yadier Molina. To complement these vets they have 2022 breakout Tommy Edman, 2021 breakout Tyler O’Neill, second half breakout Lars Nootbar all looking to contribute in a big way again.

One of the biggest (literally) early Spring Training standouts, Jordan Walker, will break camp with the Cards. For those unfamiliar, Walker is a behemoth slugger, whose stature and power echoes that of a young Frank Thomas. Young hitters almost always will have an adjustment period in the majors, but make no mistake, Walker is an ELITE prospect. 

The rest of the Cardinals lineup and bench feature a strong group including swiss-army knife utility man, Brendan Donovan, who has also flashed some more thump this spring and could make him more than a utility type if he carries over. The group also contains a lot of youth and upside in Nolan Gorman, Juan Yepez, and Dylan Carlson. 

Outlook

I fully expect the Cardinals to be a playoff team in 2023. They have a very good lineup & bullpen with a solid, but unspectacular starting pitching staff. 

Prediction (Degree of Spiciness: Very BOLD)

Incredibly jacked Canadian outfielder Tyler O’Neill, remains healthy for the entire season and posts a 40/40 campaign harnessing his prodigious power and elite sprint speed to turn in an MVP caliber season.

Milwaukee Brewers (84-78 per FanGraphs projections)

The Brew Crew are projected to be right on the heels of St. Louis, but I don’t quite think that they are on par with the Cards. Milwaukee has some of the ingredients to challenge them though, and it is not impossible.

Pitching

Starting pitching is the story here in Milwaukee:

Corbin Burnes

Brandon Woodruff

Eric Lauer

Freddy Peralta

Wade Miley

The staff is anchored by two legitimate Cy Young candidates in Burnes & Woodruff. They are both smack in the middle of their primes and are capable of stopping any lineup dead in its tracks. While the Burnes arbitration drama was well publicized this offseason, both of these aces are under control in Milwaukee for 2 more seasons. 

Freddy Peralata is a bit of a mystery. If he is able to pitch enough innings in mostly full health, he also has ace ability. The rub is that he has yet to top 145 IP in his young career. If the Crew are able to get 160 or more innings from Freddy, yikes. 

Rounding out the rotation is a pair of solid, but unspectacular lefties; Eric Lauer and Wade Miley. I don’t have much to add here, but I think I would be remiss to not mention LHP Aaron Ashby here. The young lefty hurler has succumbed to a sore shoulder already this spring, but when he is healthy he has absolutely nasty stuff. His ultimate role is unknown, but, I would bet on him getting a look as a starter again once he is able to return. There is a very high ceiling here.

Milwaukee made a bit of a surprising move to trade bullpen ace Josh Hader to San Diego at the deadline, but luckily for them they had an heir apparent in Devin Williams to plug in to those key spots. After Williams is former 1st overall draft pick Matt Bush. The one time shortstop prospect has revamped his career and is now a flame throwing back end bullpen piece. The rest of the bullpen is definitely a little less talented overall, so there is some need here yet. 

Lineup

The Brewers boast a lineup that is most likely underrated. 

Between the big boy, Rowdy Tellez, and Willy Adames there is some considerable punch in this lineup. While the days of Christian Yelich posting MVP stat lines are over, he is still a very good lead off hitter with power, speed, & a terrific plate approach. This winter Milwaukee added William Contreras, who looks almost like a carbon copy of his older brother, Willson. They also acquired Jesse Winker – just two years removed from posting some gaudy production for the Reds (.403 wOBA/147 wRC+), he is a prime candidate to bounce back now that he is out of the hitter’s nightmare park in Seattle. 

The rest of the lineup is Luis Urias, Garrett Mitchell, Brian Anderson, and Brice Turang. Urias is just 25 years old and has posted 39 dingers over the last two seasons, so there is some definite possibility of him reaching 20+ homers and taking a step further forward. Anderson is an underappreciated addition and a solid hitter in his own right. Mitchell & Turang are both highly regarded youngsters & former 1st round draft picks.

Outlook

I expect the Brewers to ultimately fall short of St. Louis, but challenge for a Wild Card spot and be a team that could certainly make a playoff run on the pitching strength and overall solid lineup depth. 

Prediction: (Degree of Spiciness: HOT)

Brewer’s rookie CF Garrett Mitchell will place second in the NL ROY race with his potent speed/power combination.

Chicago Cubs (75-87 per Fangraphs projections)

The Cubs are in the midst of a transition, much like Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.  Ultimately, it is my opinion that Chicago and Pittsburgh will be battling for third place in the division. Chicago has a ways to go yet to really challenge,  but they have made some quality additions even though it is unlikely to be enough to make a serious dent in 2023.

Pitching

The opening rotation in the Windy City should look something like this:

Marcus Stroman

Jameson Taillon

Justin Steele

Drew Smyly

Hayden Wesenski

This rotation is unspectacular, but solid. With a steady veteran presence composed of Stroman, Taillon, & Smyly. This trio should be capable of eating innings and pitching competent baseball. It needs to be noted that these three all have missed significant chunks of time in their careers. If they can remain healthy it should be enough to keep them in ballgames. 

The most compelling two arms here might just be Steele & Wesenski. In 2022 Steele put forth a mini breakout season of 119 innings of quality pitching. Relying on a strong slider, Steele posted a 3.19 ERA that was backed by equally encouraging peripherals. And finally, Wesenski, who looked brilliant in Spring Training thus far. He came over from the Yankees at the 2022 deadline and brought with him a very good sweeping slider & high quality command. While he only hurled 33 IP in the majors last season, he is a good bet to take a step forward in workload and will be someone to watch closely.

It should be noted that longtime rotation staple Kyle Hendricks is on the shelf until midseason recovering from a shoulder injury. It remains to be seen what to expect from the veteran in 2023.

The bullpen is veteran heavy, with Boxberger, Michael Fulmer, and long relief specialist Keegan Thompson. The rest of the bullpen is filled out with younger, more intriguing options like Alzolay, Hughes, and oft-injured Julian Merryweather. These arms are a lot less proven, but could very well post stretches of effective stopping power. 

Lineup

The lineup in Chicago is a veteran heavy one with some investments that should be around as the youth begins to arrive.

The big addition from 2022, Seiya Suzuki, will open the year on the IL, but he should be back fairly early and looks to be an above average regular. Two big names that the Cubs added for 2023 are Dansby Swanson & Cody Bellinger. Swanson had a monster season for the Braves before they let him walk in free agency. It remains to be seen if he can carry this over in a park that is more difficult on right handed batters, but I would be cautious in betting too much against him. Bellinger is another matter. Gone are the days of MVP production, but he has a chance to post some low average power/speed seasons along with good outfield defense.

The rest of the lineup features perennially underrated Ian Happ, young SS Nico Hoerner, and vets like Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, Tucker Barnhart, Patrick Wisdom, and Yan Gomes. This group is mostly capable of playing league average baseball and while boring, can be effective. 

There is a group of compelling talent that should arrive this season including slugger Matt Mervis, possible 5 tool OF Brennan Davis, swiss army knife power/speed threat Christopher Morel, and the powerful Alexander Canario.

Outlook

The Cubs should be improved from 2022 by virtue of additions and rising talent. I do not think it will be enough to compete for the division, but they should be a thorn in the side of the Bucs in their quest for third place.

Prediction: (Degree of Spiciness: Medium)

Lieutenant Dans repeats his All-Star Caliber play of 2022 and looks like a great anchor for their rebuild. Going 90/27/80/.265/20 steals.

Cincinnati Reds (Fangraphs projection: 70-92)

The Reds are more than likely to be the favorite for basement dwellers in 2023, but there are some very encouraging signs for the future.

Pitching

The Reds rotation should look a lot like:

Hunter Greene

Nick Lodolo

Graham Ashcraft

Connor Overton

Luis Cessa

Headed by big ticket youngsters Greene & Lodolo, this rotation is quite top-heavy. Both Greene & Lodolo look to be the real deal. Greene has the big, nasty, fastball that everyone drools over. His major knock is that his fastball, despite the velocity, gets  hit fairly hard still. The slider is a great offering though and I expect him to take a step forward and mature into a more complete pitcher. Lodolo is a deceptive lefty that possesses a truly devastating curveball and an arsenal that limits hard contact and generates a good deal of ground balls. It is possible that he may be even better than Greene all things considered. 

Ashcraft flashed some great stuff this spring. His ability is not quite as good as the two other youngsters already mentioned, but he does have loud stuff routinely pumping 97+ mph cutters. He has supposedly added to his repertoire, but we will need to see more yet. He is a major breakout candidate. 

The other two arms are pretty underwhelming, so I don’t want to take too much effort in covering them here as of yet.

The bullpen is headed by Alexis Diaz, brother of Edwin Diaz. He is truly nasty but has the typical control gaffes of this kind of profile. The games that the Reds win, he will likely have a say in. The rest of the bullpen is very iffy to the point of not being necessary of discussing in depth beyond saying: yikes.

Lineup:

One thing to consider with any Reds lineup is that Great American Ball Park makes everyone a better hitter. GABP is officially on par with Coors Field in terms of generating offense. So while the lineup does not feature a ton of knowns, almost any of them become capable of having career years due to the hitting environment. 

The players to highlight here are former ROY Jonathan India, Will Benson, Spencer Steer, and Wil Myers. 

India was banged up and played poorly in 2022. He is a very talented hitter though and I am expecting him to turn in a bounceback year. Benson came over in a trade this winter and he is a player that boasts big raw power and speed. He looks like the favorite to benefit from the annual Nick Senzel injury and someone I think could post a sneakily valuable season. Spencer Steer was another 2022 addition and he profiles as a utility player that can do a little bit of everything. Myers has always had ability, just never lived up to his massive prospect hype. He now finds himself in a great situation and should have a shot at a 20+ homer year and plenty of production. Jake Fraley is another former top prospect that now looks to get an everyday job. He just might surprise some too.

Reds legend Joey Votto will be on the IL to open the season, but should return as team leader and aging former star sometime this season.

What Cininnati does have is some real rising talent. This group is headlined by uber-prospect Elly De La Cruz. De La Cruz is sort of like the Cincinnati version of Oneil Cruz. Enormous power & off the charts speed. He has had some significant strikeout issues in the minors but it has not hindered his production. If he can improve his swing and miss  problems, Elly DLC might post some video game numbers in GABF. 

Outlook

Cincy should be a bad club in 2023. That being said, there are some real signs for hope in the organization. Barring anything unexpected, this should be the last place team in the NL Central.

Prediction: (Degree of Spiciness: Mild)

Will Benson holds a starting OF job and posts a 20/15 season. 

This is a wrap on the preseason Know Your Enemies lookaround. I have tried to keep things brief here, while I do not think that I made any glaring omissions, I am sure I will have missed at least one or two unexpected turn of events in the division. 

If any of you have some spicy NLC themed predictions, please share them in the comments & I’ll see you again for the April edition of Know Your Enemies.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

3-27-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It’s this week people.

Opening Day is coming up on Thursday against the Cincinnati Reds at 4:10PM. Good thing too, because Spring Training fatigue has fully taken charge. Yesterday’s contest was a perfect example, losing 8-1 to the Braves while only playing 4 or 5 guys who will be on the MLB roster, 2 of which were relievers who only went an inning.

Play a game like that on March 1st, and everyone gets what’s happening, play a game like that on March 26th and to fans it’s just a bad loss and a forecast for the season, especially when it’s not on TV, and few will open the box score and wouldn’t recognize the names if they did. So, fatigue. Tired of seeing innings eaten by AA relievers and swings taken by 30 year old AAA players.

We even had a tie last week! It’s time for baseball that counts.

Lets Go!

1. Should We Worry About Wil Crowe?

The short answer is, yeah.

Early in Spring, Wil Crowe was talked about glowingly for coming to camp pretty dramatically trimmed down with a vocal emphasis on building up his stamina so he can cross the finish line standing instead of crawling this season.

He also started messing with some of his pitch mix, adding and subtracting here and there to his arsenal and playing with the spin on pitches too. Spring numbers are Spring numbers but man, 8 innings in 9 appearances with a 2.375 WHIP, well, I don’t want to act like that’s exactly how he’ll pitch this year, but it has to be concerning.

It might be time, probably past time to be honest, to get Wil pared down to using his best offerings as opposed to trying to be a bullpen arm with a starter’s repertoire.

Now, even if they do that and they get him using the changeup, sinker and slider as his main weapons, he needs to get back to having them find the bottom of the zone more often. Far too often his sinker floats back over the center of the plate after looking like it’s headed for a lefty’s hip. Far too often the changeup, legitimately his best pitch, simply doesn’t decide to show up on a given night, and I don’t care how well you throw it, if it winds up belt high, MLB hitters are going to punish it.

We can say a whole lot of things to discredit Spring numbers, and we’d all be right to do so. We often don’t know what they’re working on, we can’t promise everyone they face is an MLB player, but folks that works both ways. We know he hasn’t faced exclusively MLB talent, and he still put up 16.9 Hits per 9 in his Spring work.

He has 1 option and assuming he breaks camp with the club, I have to imagine the Pirates won’t be afraid to use it if Wil can’t turn things around in the early going.

2. AAA Roster Will be Impressive

Haven’t really been able to say that in quite some time. The AAA roster will have a solid 15-20 guys who could easily see MLB time this year, in fact they have roughly 10 I’d be shocked to see not get any MLB time.

The talent is everywhere, on the mound, in the infield, through the outfield mix, they even have this catcher some seem interested in.

Much of this talent was together in AA Altoona last year, some of them spent most of 2022 in Indianapolis and a few found themselves in the Bigs last year, but this team is not only going to compete for a AAA championship, they’re going to push and feed this MLB club all year.

Think about it like this, go through every position set, find me the spot that doesn’t have promise? First base comes to mind for me, but Matt Gorski, and Malcom Nunez are more unknowns than expected busts.

Left handed pitching remains a shortcoming too, especially starting quality, but all in all, as I look through the MLB roster, it’s full of ifs and hope, but backed by legitimate talent that stretches back to AA.

In fact, Miguel Perez the Indians Manager is even depth. A quality coach who’s risen through the ranks and lived up to his reputation as he’s done so. Eric Munson the Indianapolis Hitting Coach was an MLB Catcher, think that’s a coincidence? Think about what he’ll be helping to develop over the next two years.

I know minor league ball isn’t for everyone, and I know this team has forced everyone to stare down there wishing and hoping something good would happen, but finally, a good batch of talent is one step away and playing in a ballpark that doesn’t give you AAA success via dimensions or wind play.

Craig Toth will cover these players more closely than I will on this site, but mark my words, there will be players who earn a callup long before they get one this year. This is why signing veterans, and specifically long in the tooth veterans could wind up being brilliant, even if by accident. It might create opportunity.

3. Injury Tests That Depth Early, and Creates Opportunity

News broke today that JT Brubaker will likely start the year on the IL with elbow and forearm soreness. The obvious replacement would be Johan Oviedo and because it wasn’t clear he’d make the club, I’d classify this as a direct injury to opportunity event.

As happy as I am to see Oviedo get an opportunity, Brubaker had looked very sharp and was easily the most likely member of the rotation to lead the team in innings. I know how some of you feel about JT, but folks, the guy is every bit a 4th or 5th starter on just about any team in the league. He’s never going to look like a hall of famer, but he’s got enough stuff and specifically strikeout stuff to have a nice long career. Hoping this isn’t the worst version of what those symptoms can mean.

This is the same issue JT suffered with in 2019, since then all he’s done is lead the staff in innings pitched since 2020.

This does serve as an example of how much of this season will progress and the way so many of the players I talked about in point number 2 will eventually get their shot. That’s baseball and sometimes the group you have at “next man up” have more to do with how the season goes than your original or intended 26.

4. The 13 Position Players are Essentially Set

Barring a deal or last minute pickup of course, this is how it looks.

Austin Hedges
Tyler Heineman (Technically could still be Delay, Heineman is just my choice)
Carlos Santana
Ji-man Choi
Ji Hwan Bae
Rodolfo Castro
Oneil Cruz
Ke’Bryan Hayes
Canaan Smith-Njigba
Jack Suwinski
Bryan Reynolds
Andrew McCutchen
Connor Joe

It’s built with movable parts, so there’s no saying this will even last a month. Joe, Suwinski, CSN, Castro, and Bae all have options, so plenty of room for shuffling for injury or struggle.

Jack has had a particularly awful Spring, and while I’ve consistently told you and anyone who’d listen he’ll make the club, I never said he’d last. That’s up to him to show Spring was worth ignoring, or confirm he’s really not in a good place. Even on his own roster, he’ll be fighting CSN and Bae for playing time from the jump.

I highlight him because he’s the only one of that group to truly have an abysmal Spring. Everyone else has shown something or have the reputation that they’d get where they’re supposed to get to.

He could just as easily come out firing from the jump and then everyone will wonder how any of the kids will ever get a shot, but you’ll just point them to point number 3 today right?

5. Let’s Be Really Clear About Who’s Being Manipulated

The Pirates have 1 player, Endy Rodriguez, who you could even approach assigning this tag to. He’s shown he can hit and while I personally do believe he still needs to work on his craft as a catcher for a bit, I’ll give you that he could learn up here and I’ll even give that learning directly from Hedges might even be smarter.

Nobody else though.

Luis Ortiz throws two pitches, and clearly needs to work on something off speed. That’s really the story, in its entirety. I can’t fathom how anyone thinks a guy who was just in A ball last year starting this season in AAA and having a glaring issue is being manipulated for service time.

In fact, I could easily, like barely trying mind you, make a stronger case for Michael Burrows than Ortiz.

Every year fans come up with their list of guys the evil empire is holding back, and every year they’re 99% crap.

Look, the guys you can actually assign this to, they’re actually kinda rare. The guys you can talk about and honestly see nothing they need to work on, even less.

Ortiz for instance, as I sit here, I can’t tell you he’ll come up when the Super 2 deadline passes, know why? Cause I can’t promise he’ll be ready. Ever hear me say that about Endy? Cruz? Hayes?

There’s a reason, because every year if you have someone like that, it’s painfully clear. A few people whining on Twitter does not a controversy (spelled correctly this time) make. The Pirates have exactly one potentially ready difference maker who isn’t making this team out of camp and it’s Endy and even with him I had to ignore some pretty obvious stuff and pretend he could back up/learn from Hedges while somehow still getting enough at bats and innings caught to be comfortable he’s learning and improving.

Much of this is fandom, you like a guy, you want said guy to get a chance, I totally get it. The problem for me is when people who supposedly understand the game and spend time talking about it and disseminating information pretend this stuff is a Pirates only thing, or even make it seem like they have a laundry list of guys they’re holding back.

These are facts, you can dispute all sorts of things about individuals, but these facts are universal.

  • Every team in MLB will on occasion hold a player back to get an extra year of service time.
  • Every year a few teams will ignore all that and bring up a phenom.
  • The owners and players agreed to keep this trash in the game. This time around they added in some very light incentive for not doing it, and I doubt it will change it much for the teams that traditionally worry about payroll.
  • Some players won’t make the league because their MLB team has fortified a position and made their promotion next to impossible. This isn’t manipulation, but it is something veteran players sure don’t mind. It also doesn’t send the masses into the streets with pitchforks.
  • Once a player reaches 24 or 25, manipulation is kind of a self defeating theory. You’re already going to be into their downside most likely before they reach free agency.

None of this makes it right or fun for fans but what makes it even harder on fans is when people pump you full of crap and act like the Pirates have 8 guys rotting in AAA.

You know all the weird takes out there that the Pirates will lose 100 games again in 2023? Well, if you wanted or if the team wanted to actually make that happen, they could have easily not brought in any free agents and gone with all kids. Bluntly, I wouldn’t even hate it myself, but the record would absolutely suffer and all the depth they have, yeah, gone.

Complain if you must, hate the obvious crap that manipulation is, but at least try to be real about what is, and what isn’t. For your own sake.

Minor League News and Brews: Indianapolis Indians Preview

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-97eh6-13c4ea2

Craig is joined by Jack McMullen from the Indianapolis Indians and Just Baseball Media-fresh off of covering the World Baseball Classic-to discuss the Pirates Triple-A Roster, and how things could shake out as the season progresses. 

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and is a huge Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Fan; especially when it comes to the Farm System. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Minor League Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Debating Some of the Pirates Controversies

3/24/23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It hardly matters the subject, if you cover a Sports team, you’re going to see popular debates crop up. Some are just for the day, some last decades but either way, they’re polarizing and once people have decided which side they’re going to defend, good luck chipping them off the wall they’re protecting.

Well, you know me, I love looking at all the angles surrounding a subject and today, that’s what I’m going to try to do with some debates going on right now.

Travis Williams – PR Genius

I’m sure plenty of people posted the quotes that came from Williams, but this is the one that seemed to garner the most attention at least on my timeline.

This is clumsy. A term I’ve used far too often to describe Pirates communication efforts over the years. It spurned instant anger, and even if you don’t have Twitter, I suggest clicking on this, reading the entire quote and some of the replies.

Travis has a job to do, and that job doesn’t really entail building a baseball team. Frank Coonely for instance, was very hands on with Baseball Ops, stepping in on and approving moves Huntington wanted to make. Williams’ role is different as the Pirates made a change to the position when they brought both he and consequently Cherington into the fold.

Let’s start there, because the first thing to say here is, what Travis says in this quote is 100% accurate, purely from his perspective. It is his job to ensure fans enjoy the experience at PNC up to the point where the players on the field are concerned. Then it becomes Cherington’s issue.

That said, a baseball executive just can’t say things like that. Nobody at any level in any organization can get away with saying so flippantly that winning isn’t essential to the experience. You can’t say it in any way.

I can, you can, I mean you can go to a game, have a great time and on your way back to the T or parking garage you can talk to everyone you went with about how it was fun even though they lost, but team president, nope, can’t come out your face hole.

Williams hasn’t spoken to the media much since being brought in, and statements like this, well, you can see why. You all can laugh at Bob Nutting when he has his rare sit downs with media as he parrots that the goal is winning championships. You can smack him in the nose for not showing that intention with his wallet. Hell, you can just make fun of his clothes while he does it, but at least he knows enough to keep saying it anyway. Feel me?

I also think to a degree, Travis is speaking to “any given game” here, not losing as it relates to overall record as many automatically assumed, but when you make a clumsy statement, you kinda reap what you sow.

It’s hard to believe he worked for the Penguins, a team that so rarely missteps on this stuff.

A better way for him to put the same message forward would be to outline everything he did, and at the end instead say “We want you to remember the team winning, Cruz hitting one in the river, and how great your experience in the ballpark was, all of the above are part of the fan experience.”

Problem is, I truly don’t think Williams thinks of it in that way. I think he truly sees his role as more about venue management, community involvement, and while internally I’m quite sure that’s the case, again, it just can’t be painted as such publicly.

We often claim to want transparency, and then we get it….

Travis Swaggerty Isn’t Treated Fairly!

A whole lot of this dates back to last year when Swaggerty was called up for a very short stint and sent back down, even as the Pirates struggled to field a competent outfield most of the season.

Add into that now, in the last 5 Spring games, Canaan Smith-Njigba has played 5 games, 4 of them starts while Travis has played 5 games, 1 of them as a starter. That matters because in theory, if you want someone to show you they deserve to make the club, you aren’t asking them to do it against late inning replacements in Spring, you’re asking them to do it against the other team’s starters, or at least more of them.

Swaggerty has really had a nice Spring, it’s not his fault who he faces, and so has CSN, I really think if it came down to cases, most fans would probably shove Jack Suwinski back to AAA and keep both of them on the 26-man, but that isn’t happening and despite the passion surrounding this, I’ll give this my best swing at explaining.

Jack has a strikeout problem, he had it all last season too mind you, but a player who takes 326 at bats and hits 19 homeruns with an OPS over .700 in the Majors is always going to trump two guys who had nice 40 AB Springs. Just is.

The Pirates could be wrong here, but options being what they are, there is zero permanency about this choice right now. The allure of adding 200 at bats to his share of playing time and hoping that translates to 10 more homeruns is just too sexy.

Think about it this way, if Jack winds up being Joey Gallo, that’s not great, but also not without value. The Rangers traded Joey Gallo for 4 of the Yankees top 30 prospects. Moral of the story, homeruns sell, and homeruns spawn opportunity.

I’m not even here to tell you it’s a slam dunk Jack isn’t switched with whomever is left out of this mix come May, but to ignore what he did against actual MLB pitching in lieu of what two guys have done against a mixture of NRIs and AA pitchers sprinkled with MLB arms is just not a fair fight to begin with.

Travis has been handled strangely. First things first, he wasn’t this management group’s pick, and they’ve already shown that isn’t how they determine who is or isn’t a worthy prospect. Even so, they don’t have the same incentive to prove they were right about their number one pick as they will with say Nick Gonzales.

He has indeed had a wonderful and encouraging Spring and if he’s sent down I truly don’t see it being the end of his story here, if he keeps it up in AAA. Now, if it’s a 1 to 1 comparison between Swaggerty and Smith-Njigba, it’s a pretty even race really. CSN is an on base machine and a good defender, Swaggerty is an elite defender but gets on base at a lower clip. Both have some power, neither come close to Jack in that department.

I get why it seems unfair to Travis, but I also don’t think fairness comes into play on things like this. I may not be completely sold on Cherington’s vision as it comes to player evals, but I sure as hell want him to have autonomy making his choices, and I’d like to believe he thinks he’s making the right choices for the team. Even if he’s wrong.

The Dopey Pirates Should Cut Ji-man Choi

Here’s the premise. The Pirates, if they had opportunity to get a redo of the offseason, would hit the reset button on their first acquisition Ji-man Choi.

The overriding belief being that they didn’t know they’d get Santana, Joe or of course Andrew McCutchen.

All that could be true, probably is, after all, in baseball you never know until you know, but it’s known that the Pirates were the first team to reach out to Carlos Santana and they came in hot folks. They of course couldn’t know he’d sign, but they were pursuing him even as they made the deal for Choi. Once they secured Choi, it’s not like they were forced into following through on Santana.

So to me the premise that they just acquired and signed all these guys in some rare orgy of spending, then sat back, breathed a bit and now think to themselves, well horse hockey, we don’t need all these guys, is silly.

The reason this is coming up is because MLB changed an obscure rule. In the past when you took a player to arbitration, as soon as the case was settled, the money was guaranteed. Now, teams can cut a player before the season starts and basically back out of the deal. It’s obviously more complicated than that cause you know, it’s MLB and no rules are just a to b, but that’s the gist.

The idea has some merit. Choi is likely not a starter on this team, and keeping him probably artificially keeps a young player in AAA as a result, and being Pirates fans, you can’t dismiss the allure of saving money.

That being said, and of course factored in, I think the Pirates are actually just hedging their bet here. Santana is 37, Cutch isn’t a Spring chicken and Choi has only played more than 100 games twice in his career.

I just don’t see this as being a real option for this club and further the team has multiple times mentioned Choi by name as a veteran in the room who brings value off the field for youngsters. Williams, Shelton, and Cherington have all, on the record pointed to this, and this player, and lets just say, the entire brain trust doesn’t spend all offseason building up value in an intangible only to turn around and say it doesn’t really matter right before the season starts.

This rule could come into play at some point though, you might see in the future, guys like Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl, taken to arb having this option in their back pocket, instead of having to make the decision entirely in the offseason. So in the future, maybe fewer non-tenders, but with this player, this year, I don’t see it, nor do I see the logic.

It’s also not a 100% step out of financial responsibility. You’d still have to pay a percentage of his salary, just nowhere near all of it.

Pirate Fan Class Wars

Another interview tidbit from Travis Williams, noted PR expert and fan enthusiasm wonk. This time Trav was explaining why the Pirates chose not to have Pirates Fest this year.

He used a lot of words, but the gist is they hadn’t had a Pirates Fest since before COVID and in their infinite wisdom they looked around and thought hey, lets see if we can’t find a way to make sure season ticket holders feel special.

Sounds nice right?

Well it is, but maybe not when it’s ALL you do. See, there have always been season ticket holder (STH) exclusive events, but there have also been in tandem events for everyone who consider themselves to be fans.

In saying they wanted to focus on STH as the most “loyal” fans it sets up a weird class war. First, not everyone can afford season tickets and more than that, it takes away all responsibility on the Pirates that there are so few STH in the first place.

Again, I have no problem with STH being treated as special. They are, and lord knows they’ve dealt with some bad baseball in the process, but fans in say Morgantown who make the trek twice a year, well, they deserve to have some chance to get together and meet players too.

Bottom line, this isn’t a franchise that can afford to pretend any paying ticket customer is less than another.

When pressed on whether there’d be a Pirates Fest next year, he declined to say noting they haven’t done their budget yet for next year.

LOL

I’ll go out on a limb and guess there’ll be one next year, the outcry has just been too loud to ignore. It might not be what we used to have, but I have to believe even they aren’t that dumb.

Reynolds Extension by the End of Spring?

I’ve always been straight with you about this subject. I’m not a journalist, but I have enough people I talk to that it’s been pretty easy to stay plugged in, well, until about a month ago anyway.

I knew they were going quiet, and I told you all that, but today Jason Mackey from the PG confirmed that the two sides have “hushed” media communication.

Jon Heyman reported that the Pirates are trying to get the extension done before the season begins, I’ve also told you this.

Point is, even I feel better about reports when they come from real reporters so I certainly don’t expect anyone to act like some dude already told you all this.

That said, this situation is poised to come to it’s apex very soon and I believe it will get done.

The silence is intentional, because whichever side you think is in the right (gee let me guess) it benefits neither to push out a play by play of this negotiation. I can say with some confidence that there have been real discussions of numbers, and according to Jason Mackey again, “the two sides are in a better place than they were”.

The long and short of it is, at this point, neither side wants to pressure or “hurt” the other, and that in and of itself should make you feel like progress is being made. As long as they’re quiet, they’re working.

Now, Heyman having a report, chances are the agent talked at least to a pacifying level, but again, there’s really no incentive to do so aside from perhaps feeling that they’ve waited longer than they’d like for a reply or counter.

This stuff is so messy, but all in all, it’s going exactly as most imagined it would if they indeed didn’t want to move the player, which of course, they don’t.

Another theory on why this was put out today, goes back to our first controversy, Travis Williams interview. It was such bad PR the Pirates likely felt it necessary to leak something at least semi positive, or at least promising. I’m not sure I buy this because it really only gave people another chance to recall how few large extensions this team has handed out and how bad their initial offer was perceived to be.

Eyes open, I expect this to be sewed up one way or the other by the first homestand of the season, and I give them that long for press conference/home buzz purposes.

Unlocking the “Ke” to Success

3-24-23 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on Twitter

Entering this season, there is a lot more for fans to be excited about with regards to this team. Cutch is back in black and gold. Mitch Keller is looking every bit the front-line starter he was projected to be. Top prospect Endy Rodriguez is on the precipice of joining the club – with plenty of top prospects on the horizon as well. But there’s one player whose untapped potential is yet to be unlocked: Ke’Bryan Kobe Hayes

We all know the glove plays. If Nolan Arenado never existed, Ke’ would have at least one Gold Glove in his trophy case right now; however, the bat hasn’t progressed as many would have hoped. Gary wrote about the need for Ke’ to take a step this season in his article last month but now, with Spring Training winding down, let’s look back at where he’s been and where he could be heading.

The 32nd overall pick in the 2015 draft, Hayes decided to forego a commitment to University of Tennessee to sign with the Bucs. Manning the hot corner with plus fielding, speed and ability to hit for average, Hayes was noted for having a high baseball IQ and skills to develop into a solid glove-first 3B with some power potential.

Ke’ slowly worked his way through the minors, compiling 1,755 at-bats and posting a .279/.353/.401 slash line. Not a superstar line but a solid performance from their #2 prospect entering 2020.

When Hayes was initially called up, it followed all the typical fanfare surrounding a top, young prospect finally making his long-awaited debut. Hayes was mostly known for his work in the field throughout his time in the minors, winning three gold gloves before his name would appear on the Pirates lineup. In his brief 2020 debut, however, his bat was getting much more attention.

Over 24 games of the pandemic-shortened season, Ke’ posted a .376/.442/.682 triple slash with 5 home runs, 7 doubles and 2 triples in only 85 at-bats. He also had 4 defensive runs saved. This led to him netting some Rookie of the Year votes, resulting in a sixth place finish despite his abbreviated time in the pros.

The glove was expected. The bat, maybe a little less so.

Unfortunately, 2020 was his peak for offensive prowess to date as injuries have hampered his ability to build on that success. 2021 started with wrist inflammation, which led to multiple stints on the injured list. A lingering mid-back strain adversely impacted his swing throughout the 2022 season.

Over those two years, he posted a wRC+ of 88 with a .671 OPS. He posted stellar defensive numbers, even earning a Fielding Bible Award in 2021 and compiling 44 defensive runs saved since his debut (leading all of baseball in that time). But what about the offense? Can he just put it all together AND stay healthy? Was 2020 a flash-in-the-pan peak or the promise of what might be?

Ke’ comes from a solid baseball pedigree. His father, Charlie, caught the final out of the 1996 World Series as a member of the New York Yankees and played in the majors for over 12 years. His older brother, Tyree, had a short stint as a minor league pitcher a few years back. Neither of them will be making the kind of money young Hayes is slated to receive.

Ahead of the start to the 2022 season, it was announced that Ke’Bryan Hayes would be signing an 8-year, $70M contract with the Pirates, an annual average value of approximately $8.75M. 

He’s young and he’s had some growing pains. We all remember when he hit a home run but missed first base. Or last season, when – though not involved in a play – was caught on camera eating sunflower seeds while the runner rounded third. These are not the most ideal things to happen for the player who signed the richest contract in Pirates history.

In spite of his offensive deficiencies in recent years, he’s been a net-positive for the team. The overall numbers may vary based on which baseball statistics out you follow (FanGraphs has him with a 3.0 WAR in 2022 whereas Baseball Reference lists him with a 4.3) but they all point to the same conclusion: From defense alone, Hayes is EXTREMELY valuable but the offense is clearly lacking. However, there is reason to think that could change very soon.

For starters, Hayes bulked up A LOT this past off-season. Reportedly, he added 10-15 pounds of pure muscle. Videos released this off-season and seeing him in the cage, it’s paying off in a BIG WAY.

The power has honestly been there all along. His average exit velocity last season was 91 MPH with max exit velocity of 113 – both of which are well above league average. What isn’t above league average? His launch angle, which was a paltry 5.2 compared to league average of 12.1. This meant that despite having exit velo/hard hit numbers in the 84th percentile, he typically was rolling the ball over to the tune of a 49.6% ground ball rate. A little bit more lift could REALLY turn things around for him.

So far in Spring Training, he’s been hitting the ball harder and farther than anyone else on the team not named Oneil Cruz. As of this writing, he is tied for team lead in home runs (3) in addition to 2 doubles and a triple, and holds a .300/.323/.700 triple slash over 30 at-bats so far this spring. Just yesterday, he hit one ball at 105.9 MPH and another at 109.1. Both with a launch angle of 9 and both led to hits.

Hayes is locked up under contract longer than anyone else on this team. Any chance the Pirates have of making playoffs and being competitive starts and ends with him. A lot of things will have to go right.

If Hayes can stay healthy for a full season.

If he can increase and maintain a better launch angle.

If the day-to-day grind motivates him instead of wears him down.

It’s a lot of ‘ifs’ to be sure, but there’s a lot of reason to believe the ‘ifs’ will turn into a ‘when.’ And maybe, just maybe, he unlocks his true potential.

Through The Prospect Porthole: Jose Hernandez Could Break The Rule 5 Mold

3-23-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

For the most part, whenever a team selects a player in the Major League Portion of the Rule 5 Draft, the instant-and usually correct-reaction is that they are going to try to stash/hide the prospect on the 26-Man in order to gain control of them for years to come; often selecting young or inexperienced starters to add to their organizational depth at the position, in the Minors.

In Ben Cherington’s lone venture into this arena-prior to the most recent Rule 5 Draft-he and the rest of the Pirates Baseball Operations Department selected the Los Angeles Angels #13 Prospect Jose Soriano with the Number One Pick, and then traded the Mets for their Number Nine Pick, Luis Oviedo; who at the time was the Guardians #25 Prospect.

Prior to being claimed by Pittsburgh, Soriano had undergone Tommy John Surgery in 2019, and was rehabbing. Oviedo on the other hand simply accrued enough years in the Minors-partially due to the cancelled 2020 Season-in order to become eligible.

At the time of his selection Oviedo had reached High-A, and was almost 2 full years younger than the average player at his level. Still, it would be hard to justify adding him to the 40-Man when he was so far away from the Majors. Hence the Pirates taking a gamble to see if he could be hidden/not exposed/stashed, with the potential goal of him being stretched out as a starter in Altoona or Indianapolis the following year.

After a full season of utilizing him out of the bullpen, with an IL stint mixed in, Oviedo was eventually designated for assignment by Pirates prior to last season.

As far as Soriano is concerned, he pitched twice in Low-A Bradenton; ending up back on the IL with an elbow injury. Ultimately returned to Angels, he is back on the mound, and was recently protected by the Halos from this year’s Rule 5 Draft.

Clearly neither ended up panning out the way the Pirates envisioned. However, it set a precedence in the mind of Pirates Fans that the goal was to hide/stash, and then reassign for depth; with the hope they would be able to develop a diamond in the rough.

Enter Jose Hernandez.

With the Third Pick in the 2022 MLB Rule 5 Draft-back in December-the Pirates selected this specific left-handed reliever from the Dodgers Double-A bullpen.

To me, the focus of this acquisition could be narrowed down to last part of the previous sentence, in the words Double-A and bullpen.

When it comes to Ben Cherington’s philosophy concerning development, he has regularly inferred that Triple-A is more of a holding ground for players who are waiting for their chance at the Majors; which would imply that a player could be promoted straight from Double-A to Pittsburgh, if they were ready.

Plus he’s literally done it more than once.

Beyond that, Hernandez has been pigeonholed as a reliever over the past two seasons; following an undisclosed injury that completely wiped out his 2019 season.

So, for whatever it’s worth, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibilities for Cherington to identify an Altoona Curve reliever as a piece of the Pirates bullpen heading into 2023.

Obviously this is not a guarantee; however, a player that puts up a 3.96 ERA and a 1.214 WHIP with 47 strikeouts in 38.2 innings could easily find his way into the conversation; especially when he effortlessly tosses a fastball that sits in mid to upper-90’s, and regularly flirts with triple digits. Pair that with a well above average slider that generates chases and a decent whiff rate…how could they go wrong?

Well, if he can’t command and control them-an issue he has struggled with-things could go south really quick.

Nevertheless, I don’t see that stopping the Pirates Coaching Staff from giving him a little bit of a leash to try to wrangle his stuff in, and become a more regular part of the bullpen.

Now, I would never go as far as to say that he will become a routinely relied upon high leverage arm; yet, it is possible that he could be called upon in multiple roles, on a consistent basis.

And, because of these simple facts he might find himself in a very different spot than previous Rule 5 Draft Picks.

Hump Day Pittsburgh Pirates Q&A

3-22-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

We’re getting down to the wire on the offseason now, and with the Pirates trimming the Spring roster down to 40 yesterday, the picture is getting clearer by the day.

The Bucs are off today, but we aren’t. Lets go…

Question 1

How do we weigh Swaggerty’s Spring Training performance? I saw a post on Twitter that equated the types of pitchers he’s faced in ST to AA-AAA level. Does his not starting more games, or playing earlier make you feel he’s not in their plans to make the OD roster? – JW (@silkychubs)

Man JW, this one is tough. First, far too often we, meaning people like me, offer up the knee jerk that Spring numbers don’t matter. The problem is, at some point, they absolutely do. Diego Castillo never makes this club last year out of camp if he didn’t do what he did in Spring. Phil Evans the season before put together a Spring that mattered right? So it’s really hard to claim a 25 year old number one pick doing well isn’t important.

I’d also add in here, he can only face the pitchers that happen to be in there when he gets at bats. Results are obviously more important than many of us care to believe, but when you’re trying to figure out how to weigh his performance as you question, you really have to look at how he’s getting those numbers. Is he flaring balls all over the park? Is he hitting balls into the wide open skies of Bradenton and relying on misplays? Is he assuming every pitcher is working on their fastball and ambushing the first pitch every at bat?

All of those would be unsustainable and make the numbers much less impactful. Now, for me and what I’ve seen, Travis is waiting for and not missing pitches he wants to hit. That in and of itself is an indication of development. The exit velocity is real, and even if you’re a person who resents that stat being talked about, more velocity tends to mean more hits, more ability to hit the ball a long way. The Strikeout numbers are fine, and he’s even shown some situational hitting capability, meaning directional hitting based on the need to advance a runner or just get someone home.

Ordinarily, yes I’d think entering games late would tend to mean they aren’t in the plans to start, but Travis has started enough that he’s hard to figure.

Now, if it were just Travis doing well, I’d feel much stronger that he’s done enough, but Canaan Smith-Njigba has arguably been just as good, maybe even better from an OBP perspective. They’re so close, you almost have to jump to defensive capability and I’d give the edge to Swaggerty there. To start the year, I think they’ll take 1 of these 2 North, but it’s hard to fathom both not making it this year and getting a real shot.

Great question, hope I answered it well enough. So many factors involved there.

Question 2

Do you see the pirates extending Reynolds before spring break ends? – Billy Tissue

I get asked this one every week by someone for obvious reasons and I choose not to answer it because there simply hasn’t been much new reported. Here’s the thing though Billy, not hearing anything is probably really good for this process. From what I’ve heard recently, the two sides have a clear picture of where the other side is on this negotiation and the last public statements were fairly positive.

I can’t begin to guess when or even if this will get done, all I can say is everyone involved has been very clear they don’t see him going anywhere this year, which would seem to be a silly thing to run around saying if they didn’t at least feel pretty good about where they were.

I wish I had more for you, but in many ways, it’s probably better I don’t. Silence is what you want here.

Question 3

What are your thoughts on how the pitching has been? To me this is the most concerning. This was supposed to be somewhat of the strength of this team and it has really looked off a bit so far- Edward Brewer

Let’s hold off on my thoughts here for a second, I’ll circle back, but I want to start with your statement that this was supposed to be somewhat of a strength. I agree, it was, and is expected to be a strength, but my goodness, they’ve had 25 guys pitch in Spring who are actually on the Spring roster, more sent over from MiLB camp on top of that, only 13 will make the team. There are NRI’s mixed in there, rookies that likely won’t reach the league this year, minor leaguers who might not even be feasible before 2024 is over, so depending on when you tuned in or what was televised, your impression could be formed based on a travel squad sent to play the Yankees or home at Bradenton with 25 MPH winds swirling in the outfield and friendly score keepers not wanting to award errors.

Now, I’d say as far as starters go, Keller, Brubaker, and Hill have all done well. When you’re talking about a starter who at this point has 8 IP like Hill, the ERA means nothing, it’s more about how he looks and feels, what he’s doing on the side. Roansy hasn’t been here as he’s been at WBC so he’s only thrown 6 innings this Spring. Vince Velasquez had a great start not on TV and an awful start on TV all amounting to 9 innings.

The Bullpen regulars, all fine. Bednar hasn’t been here again WBC, but everyone else who is expected to make the club, fine.

I’d also remind that pitchers at this point have been working on new pitches, delivery tweaks, and not game planning. In fact, just yesterday Brubaker threw about 50% sinkers. He did well with the pitch overall, but after a while, guys know it’s coming and it’s more about him feeling good about throwing the pitch than getting the outs.

All in all, I still like the pitching staff, still feel it’s going to be a strength, I mean Ed the best way I can put this is the Pirates need to weed the garden so you can appreciate the rose bushes.

Question 4

As you kind of insinuated Gary, most of the young position players the Pirates need to take that step forward have not looked good this spring. They include Cruz, Suwinski, Bae, Marcano, and Castro. And most of the acquisitions don’t look strong – Conner Joe, Santana, Hedges, and Choi. Should I be alarmed at the current state of the rebuild? – Dale Merchant

Let me address the player specific portion of this question first, and you’ll understand why when I get to the last part. That group of players you mention first as needing to take a step, Cruz, Suwinski, Bae, Marcano and Castro. I’m not sure that’s really what even the Pirates would expect. Realistically, if you wind up with 2 long term starters out of that group its a win. Doesn’t mean they can’t make the team and stick, just means ceilings are fairly defined and even if reached, only 1 of those players, Cruz, is a damn near lock.

Even if all 5 had set the world on fire this Spring, I’d be telling you to calm down, and probably reminding you the team can’t even make room for all 5 of them on this roster.

Now onto the vets, Hedges doesn’t hit anywhere, so if they or you, expected him to suddenly hit, I’m sorry. Joe has been decent, Santana has a track record and so does Choi. I’m not concerned about any of them, I also don’t think any of them have anything to do with the “rebuild”.

You’re going to hate this, but damnit, this is a bridge year. (Ducks)

Think about it, you’re wondering about all these players and equating them to rebuild success, only 2 of them are young players brought in here with a chance to become regular and long term contributors. We haven’t seen even one of Ben Cherington’s draft picks crack the league yet. Not even one at bat. Not one pitch.

All those vets are here for the first list of players you named off. They’re here because relying on kids with no experience on opening day would almost guarantee another really bad if not 100 loss team. As the season goes on, they’ll start to trickle up here and supplant the vets, some of the picks will finally start making it to the Bigs too.

I’m not worried because I didn’t expect to be there yet. In fact, they’ve done far more in free agency than I thought they would. In other words, I thought they’d probably go get a vet pitcher and 1B, grab an old catcher and call it a day. I’m glad they didn’t, but 2023 was always nothing more to me than “fun”. Next year, I expect many more kids to be entrenched, they might even surprise us a bit and in 2025 I expect them to really push. I’m sorry though, I’m not ready to call the rebuild in danger before any draft picks have arrived.

Let me add this in too. Your list of kids who were supposed to step up, clearly hasn’t happened, but Travis Swaggerty and Canaan Smith-Njigba sure have. So, maybe it’s not quite as bleak as it looks, cause I can’t even guarantee either of them will make the club.

A dead rebuild looks more like the Pirates in 2015. No more bullets in the chamber prospect wise, desperately trying to hold together something good with glue and toothpicks. This is a group of near retirement vets holding a place the team (and the vets if we’re really honest) fully expect to be taken over by kids by the end of the year.

So, overall Dale, I guess I reject the premise. 2023 is a paving stone on the way to the developing team, and to their credit, for once they decided to give those youngsters a chance to win a bit more by playing with vets, and let fans enjoy some competitive ball again on the way to brighter days.

All that said, if the vets just flat out stink, the Pirates will have to be agile and make the moves they need to make, even if they cost them. Will they? My guess is not often enough, not early enough, but I also trust the expected numbers from guys who have 10+ years of data to point to what they’ll likely provide.

The faster they let these changes happen when they show themselves, the better 2024 will look, the more experience kids rack up in 2023, the less guessing we all do next Spring.

Question 5

Bucs got some tough decisions. A lot of young guys and guys they brought in are playing decent. Who do you send down? – Dan Helgert

Before I start here, it’s incredible how differently fans see things. Compare Dan’s question to Dale’s. One thinks a lot of the young guys and guys they brought in are struggling, the other thinks they’ve been largely decent.

They have 40 guys on the Spring Roster at this point, so listing off 14 guys who will get sent down or cut would send me off listing a bunch of guys like Zamora.

So I’ll do it this way. Let’s look at the really hard decisions. The outfield mix I think we’ll see 5 brought North. Cutch, Joe, Jack, Reyonlds and one of Swaggerty or CSN. I give the edge to Swaggerty here, but not by much. Neither would upset me and the one who doesn’t make it need only keep doing it in AAA and he’ll be right back. They have 4 catchers in camp still, Plawecki, Hedges, Heineman and Delay, obviously 2 of those will be sent down, I’d go with Plawecki (who probably has an out clause) and Delay. Relievers are a challenge, If they decide to go with 2 lefties it puts someone like Yerry De Los Santos or Dauri Moreta in danger, and even if they only take Hernandez North, one of them won’t make it most likely.

Here’s what I think we’ll see.

SP – Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, Rich Hill, JT Brubaker, Vince Velasquez

That’s 5 and if I had my way VV would wind up in the pen, I just don’t see them doing that on Opening Day.

RP – Bednar, Crowe, Underwood, De Jong, Holderman, Moreta, De Los Santos, Hernandez

That makes 13

Head over to position players and I’ll start with the ones I feel pretty sure about.

Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, Ji-Man Choi, Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro, Austin Hedges and Ke’Bryan Hayes.

That puts us at 22 and the bench. Now don’t get hung up on who starts when, or where quite yet.

Tyler Heineman, Mark Mathias, Connor Joe and Travis Swaggerty is where I land and we arrive at 26.

I could be wrong, this isn’t a prediction as much as “what I’d do” but I think that’s what you asked anyway so there ya go.

Helping Pirates Fans Pump The Brakes

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-zbfrt-13c27ea

Craig sits down with Jason Mackey-Pirates Beat Writer from the Post-Gazette to discuss roster decisions concerning the battle ground positions, fan loyalty to certain players and the pros vs. cons of a 6 man rotation. 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Top 5 Pirates Prospects: Altoona Curve

2-21-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

One of my favorite things to do every summer is load up the family in the mini-van and head across 22-West; on our way to see the Curve take on any number of teams in the Eastern League, inside the Roundhouse.

As the mountains appear in the distance, the excitement of arriving at our familiar stomping grounds starts to build up within everyone of us.

Driving into the valleys in between the Brush Mountains, and seeing the train running along side of you; we all know that People’s Natural Gas Field is not too far away.

When we park, everyone grabs their gloves; ready to snag to ball as it lands in Home Run Junction, is thrown from one of the Curve player, or simply to play catch on grassy hill behind the left field walkway.

Each year the makeup of the team changes, but the experience remains the same.

Coming into last season, Altoona’s lineup was one of the most highly touted and talented groups in Pittsburgh’s Farm System; with many of the prospects coming off a run to the South Atlantic League Championship Series, where the lost in 5 games to Bowling Green Hot Rods.

Comprised of over 25 percent of the Top 30-according to MLB Pipeline-and at least 4 of the Top 10 to begin the year, with several others set to join in short order, the Curve looked to stroll through the competition.

Unfortunately, due to underperformance from some-but, more realistically because of the fact that these players rarely got to take the field together. From the jump, the injury bug infected the clubhouse, one top prospect at a time.

Sure, this allowed for the emergence of several that may not have otherwise gotten the opportunity; however, it ultimately lead to a somewhat disappointing season overall.

Still, I can’t help but be cautiously optimistic once again, as the 2023 Minor League Season approaches.

Yes, I know…typical fanboy behavior.

1) Henry Davis-C

Although he was not in the original group that arrived in Altoona, the Pirates 1:1 in 2021 would make his way north from Greensboro in short order, after 100 plate appearances in High-A; during which he slashed .342/.450/.585 with 5 homers and what would be 9 critical hit by pitches.

Regrettably this later trend would continue-even with the promotion-as he was hit by a pitch in his first Double-A plate appearance.

However, Davis would just shake it, and go yard two trips to the plate later.

Then two days later, he would be hit by a pitch yet again. Only this time he wouldn’t return to the field for almost a month, due to a non-displaced left wrist fracture. Eventually returning to the Curve lineup on June 11th. after two rehab starts in the FCL and Bradenton.

[It should be noted that he was hit by a pitch in each of these games.]

Over the next few weeks-and 15 games-Davis would struggle mightily by slashing .175/.299/.316 with a 75 wRC+; but, still hit a homer and 5 doubles before ending up back on the IL with wrist soreness.

This time it would be a month and half before he reappeared in Altoona; apparently fully healthy this go-around.

Over the final 18 games of the year he would bat .254 with a .778 OPS, 3 homers, 3 doubles and a 114 wRC+.

Due to missing significant time-once the season was over-Davis found his way to the Arizona Fall League; where he continued to perform by posting a .875 OPS, and walking (10) almost as much as he struck out (11)

Nevertheless, it should be no surprise that Davis will more than likely be back in Altoona; just like there should be no shock that there continue to be questions concerning his ability behind the plate.

The truth is he hasn’t been healthy long enough to work on his craft as much as he wants and needs to; which is something he has gotten to do during Spring Training.

Still-and once again-the future success of this former 1:1, Top Pirates Prospect will most likely come down to health; and maybe, just maybe, not getting hit by so many pitches.

2) Hudson Head-OF

Acquired from San Diego, as part of the Joe Musgrove Trade back in January of 2021, Head has flashed at time during his two seasons in Pittsburgh’s Farm System.

Over 855 plate appearances with the Marauders and Grasshoppers he has blasted 25 homers, and compiled 63 total extra base hits.

Unfortunately he has also combined for a 32.6% K-rate across levels. Although, I have to remind myself that he is only going to turn 22 in a couple of weeks; and, that he slashed .264/.355/.472 with a 125 wRC+ and 7 of those homers from July on this past season.

While I believe that Double-A would be somewhat aggressive promotion for this young man, it is likely that he sees time in Altoona by the end of year.

3) Connor Scott-OF

Built from a similar vein as Head in that he was a top high school draft pick, and was also acquired in a trade-from the Marlins for Jacob Stallings, along with Zack Thompson and Kyle Nicolas-Scott was given that advanced placement to Altoona at 22 years of age.

For him-much like Head once again-there were flashes, as he hit 7 homers, 25 doubles and 4 triples. But, there were also struggles, as evidenced by his 90 wRC+ and .697 OPS.

Unfortunately though, he did not see the same late season surge that Head did.

Yet, I don’t see this as a reason to give up on the kid.

4) Jared Jones-RHP

One of the examples I often use to illustrate the aggressive use of promotions by Ben Cherington and Company, is this young man from La Mirada High School in California.

Selected at 44th overall in the Five Round, 2020 MLB Draft, Jones would have to wait until his 19 year-old season in 2021 to put his arm to work in the professional ranks. And, considering the circumstances , he did little to disappoint.

As a starter with Bradenton, he posted a 4.76 ERA and a 1.449; which is almost to be expected from a former two-way player, who was almost 3 years younger than the average player in the league. He also struck out an incredible 103 batters in 66.0 total innings-7.1 as a reliever.

Then in 2022, rather than being given a second shot at Low-A, he was promoted to Greensboro to start the year; where he would start 26 games.

In these 26 starts, across 122.2 innings, Jones struck out 142 batters, while posting a 4.62 ERA and a 1.353 WHIP.

Clearly there is some work to be done concerning his command and control, because of the 85 combined walks-good for 4.47 BB/9-that accompanied all these strikeouts. However, the ceiling of his talent level is undeniable, thanks to two plus pitches-a 60 grade fastball and a 55 grade slider-and a quick developing change-up.

At worst he projects to be a shut down reliever, with the upside of a top of the rotation arm.

5) Matt Fraizer-OF

As Minor League Baseball resumed in 2021, there were several players who arrived on the scene with newfound power, an updated approach, a refined delivery, additional offerings, and/or improved defensive metrics from simply being able to workout and work on their craft during the shutdown.

Among the Pirates Prospects, Fraizer was one that fell squarely into the first two categories.

At the start of that season he found himself at High-A Greensboro, where in 75 games and 350 plate appearances, Fraizer slashed .314/.401/.578 with a ridiculous 20 homers; but more importantly for me his K rate sat around 21%, while his BB rose to 12.3% from 8.2% in 2019.

Ultimately for Fraizer this slightly surprising breakout would lead to him being promoted to Altoona at the beginning of August. Over the final month and half of the season Fraizer would tail off slightly as he slashed .288/.356/.492, while putting only three more balls over the fence. He did however manage to hit three triples and twelve doubles, which nearly matched his total for the Grasshoppers in less than half the at bats.

For his efforts Fraizer was named the Honus Wagner Player of The Year in the Pirates Farm System, and shot up several Top Prospect Lists headed into 2022.

Sadly, this success didn’t transfer over to 2022 as he slashed just .219/.284/.333 with 6 homers in 480 plate appearances in Altoona; although his season did start off with a bang.

Likely set to repeat Double-A, he absolutely has a lot to prove this year.

Conclusion

Even though the Curve may not have as many Top Rated Prospects set to take the field at PNG this season, there are still opportunities for some major storylines; where some players try to bounce back, others try to live up to the draft status and a few look to leave yet another mark on their way up through the Pirates Organization.

And no matter what happens, I will be there with my family as often as possible; soaking in the memories.