Assessing the Southpaw Situation

3-10-23 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on Twitter

The old adage of “never having enough arms” is never more true than when your only proven left-handed relief pitcher goes down with an injury in spring training. Jarlin Garcia, signed this past off-season, appears slated to start the season on the injured list. 

In recent years, this setback would kick off a series of dumpster-diving waiver claims by GM Ben Cherington, picking off scraps like a vulture, piecing together a patchwork of pitching options to try forging forward with no clear long-term plan.

Currently, the only other LHRP on the 40-man roster is Rule 5 pick Jose Hernandez. And while he has looked at least intriguing so far this spring, he’s far from a sure thing. Regardless, you want to have other options out of the pen until Garcia returns. Who knows how long the stint could be but let’s look at potential options to replace him:

Non-Roster Invitees

Angel Perdomo 

PerdomoWLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2023 Spring Training016.754004.031.50
MiLB Career Stats30263.24202736552.26891.28
MLB Career Stats108.24220019.2331.93
  • Perdomo signed as an international free agent with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2011 before bouncing to the Brewers, Rays and finally signing a minor league deal with the Pirates in December.
  • He had small major league appearances during his stint with the Brewers but has mostly been on the minor league circuit and has fared pretty well over that time.
  • The 6’8” 28 year-old relies on a traditional fastball/slider combo with occasional changeup. He has had excellent strikeout rates in the minors but some troubling walk numbers as well with a career K/BB rate of 2.44

Caleb Smith

SmithWLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2023 Spring Training003.382002.220.75
MiLB Career Stats34253.19120893490.14711.20
MLB Career Stats20304.55147640447.04781.31
  • Coming into camp, it appeared the team was gearing Smith up for starting opportunities with Indianapolis. Given current circumstances, the most experienced member of this group may be convinced to seek another bullpen role after moving to relief in 2021 with the Diamondbacks.
  • Smith has made appearances in MLB games in each of the past six seasons, compiling a 4.55 ERA over 447 innings in that time. 
  • Unfortunately, neither his standard nor advanced stats indicate that he would provide positive results. His strikeout and walk numbers are both moving in the wrong directions and he hasn’t posted a FIP under 5 since 2018.
  • On the positive side, he generates soft contact at an elite rate, has a starter’s pitch mix and has looked solid this spring. It would be a very low-risk move to add him to the bullpen and see what he can do.

Daniel Zamora

ZamoraWLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2023 Spring Training004.504004.011.25
MiLB Career Stats16123.70226422304.03631.27
MLB Career Stats314.50370022.0271.36
  • Most recognizable by his 1970s-style mustache – which is somehow becoming a trend in MLB again – Zamora was a 40th round pick by the Pirates in 2015. He was traded in 2018 to the Mets for LHP Josh Smoker. 
  • Later that season, he became the first player drafted in the 40th round to make the majors since the draft was shortened to 40 rounds.
  • Despite below average velocity on both his fastball and slider, Zamora has nevertheless been able to post excellent strikeout numbers at every level with a 28.4% strikeout rate versus a 9.5% walk rate in his MLB career. 

Rob Zastryzny 

ZastryznyWLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2023 Spring Training000.003004.151.38
MiLB Career Stats30354.612051054644.26131.41
MLB Career Stats204.66241038.2341.47

The last member of the NRI list, Zastryzny is the only one no longer in camp – not because he’s been cut, but due to the fact he is on the Canadian World Baseball Classic roster so we likely won’t see him again for at least a few weeks.

  • Zastryzny bounced around between a number of organizations – Cubs, Dodgers, Orioles, Marlins, Mets, Angels – as well as a stint with Independent League team, the Long Island Ducks, before landing a minor league deal with the Pirates this off-season.
  • He has a fastball, changeup and curve with an occasional cut-fastball. His velocity ranges from low-90s on his 4-seamer to upper-70s on his changeup, which could make him an interesting name to watch in this race – even as he watches the team from afar.

Internal Depth Options

Tyler Samaniego

  • Part of a magical 2021 draft class including Henry Davis, Bubba Chandler and Anthony Solometo, it would really be something if 15th round pick Samaniego debuted in Pittsburgh before any of them. The southpaw out of South Alabama tore through the minors, posting a 2.30 ERA with 62 strikeouts to 22 walks over 54.2 innings of work.
  • He spent most of last season in Altoona and could be an option out of the pen for Indy to start the season. With a batting average against of only .120 and a miniscule
    WHIP of 0.80, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if they continued with an aggressive push straight to the bigs.

Nick Dombkowski 

  • If anyone can rival the rise of Samaniego, it’s Nick Dombkowski. Signed as an undrafted free agent following the 2021 draft, Dombkowski went right to work with a 3.86 ERA over 18.2 innings pitched in Bradenton. 
  • Last year, he somehow improved upon that mark with a 3.07 mark over 3 levels in 2022, pitching 67.1 innings with 86 strikeouts to only 19 walks. As with Samaniego, he likely will be in Indianapolis to start the season but he was throwing bullpens at LECOM as recently as last week and the sky’s the limit for this rising southpaw.

Kent Emanuel

  • A third round draft pick by Houston in 2013, Emanuel’s lone season in the major leagues came in 2021, where he posted a 2.55 ERA over 17.2 innings of work with 13 strikeouts and zero walks. Unfortunately, an elbow injury ended his season and his tenure with the Astros. 
  • He signed with the Phillies but elbow issues continued to plague him during his season in the organization before signing on with Pittsburgh on a minor league deal last month. 
  • It may be hard to gauge what’s left in the tank given the missed time and injury concerns (as well as a PEDs suspension in 2020) but the 2021 glimpse provides at least some potential for Emanuel.

Cam Alldred

  • Alldred was drafted in the 24th round by the Pirates in 2018 and has continued in rise in the only professional organization he’s ever known. Following a brief 1 game/1 inning appearance with Pittsburgh – in which he allowed just 1 hit and notched his first strikeout – Alldred was sent back to Indianapolis before being designated for assignment two weeks later. Baseball can be a cruel mistress.
  • From his highest-high to his lowest-low, he cleared waivers and remained with the Indians, posting a serviceable 4.07 ERA over 66.1 innings of work. None of his “stuff” jumps off the page and while he could find himself back on a major league roster in the same way he arrived last season, look for him to mostly be depth at this stage.

Braeden Ogle

  • A 4th round pick by the Pirates in 2016, Ogle was traded to Philly in the July 2021 deal which brought catcher Abrahan Gutierrez to the organization. He returns this season after struggling with a slew of injuries and ineffectiveness in triple-A Lehigh Valley last season.
  • Ogle has mediocre strikeout numbers paired with elevated walk numbers. Not a great combination when you also have a poor ground-ball rate. He is likely a depth option as well.

In addition to these players, there are still a number of outstanding free agents who could be had for a modest deal. Zack Britton, Mike Minor, Jose Alvarez and Jake Brentz each have major league experience and may be worth a shot to shore up this bullpen. This move seems unlikely given the history of how Cherington has operated in the past but rule nothing out at this stage.

Even so, there are a myriad of options available, ranging from the borderline-fringy to the very talented for the Bucs to choose from in the event Garcia has an extended stay on the injured list. Either way, the depth at this position is in a much better position than in previous years.

Let’s hope, for all of our sakes, that the dumpster-diving days are in the past. Lets Go Bucs!

Through The Prospect Porthole: Bae’s Path To The Opening Day Roster

3-9-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

For almost the entire 2022 Season, Pirates Fans were clamoring for Ji-hwan Bae to make his Major League Debut.

From the start Bae came out swinging…literally.

Over the first three months of the season Bae slashed .305/.368/.473 with a career tying 8 home runs, 19 stolen bases and a 16.1% K to 8.9% BB-rate across 292 plate appearances. Obviously, it would be nice to have the walk rate to be slightly higher; but, at the time it really wasn’t an issue because he wasn’t having any trouble getting on base.

Unfortunately for Bae the month of July would not be very kind to him; as he started to experience an issue with his oblique, and ultimately landed on the IL after hitting just .259 with an .693 OPS and a uncharacteristic 24.2 K-rate.

All in all Bae would miss three full series in a row, and a few games in the next two series that followed; while eventually working his way back to full go for his last few weeks in Triple-A. Still, he wasn’t playing at the same level as he had during the first half of the season. Although you wouldn’t know it, based on how he performed in his cup of coffee in the majors.

Across 79 plate appearances batted .232, but saw his OPS helped out by 10 walks to 9 strikeouts, and 6 extra base hits-none of them over the fence though.

Still, we he finally did arrive in Pittsburgh, the attributes that helped him excel over the first half with Indianapolis, were on full display with the Big League Club.

He hit, he swiped bases, he used speed to leg out infield singles or turn singles into doubles and generally created havoc on the base paths and at the plate.

Most of all he created excitement, and a subsequent buzz surrounding him, as the Pirates headed into Spring Training.

Seen by some as having a chance of forcing Bryan Reynolds to left field-or in the worst case scenario replacing Reynolds if and/or when he was traded-even though he only had a total 366.2 innings of experience at the position, Bae has been deployed mostly as a second basemen-with shortstop recently being mixed in-through the first almost two weeks of Spring.

This is clearly by design, as Rob Biertempfel reported that the team was looking to narrow Bae’s focus to one area all the way back on January 30th.

So, it looks like his main competition for taking the flight to Cincinnati at the beginning of the season on March 30th, would be Tucupita Marcano, Chris Owings and Drew Maggi; with all of them falling in behind Rodolfo Castro.

[This may not seem like much of a competition; but, don’t worry we’ll get to that.]

If he would have been put mostly in the outfield, he would have stacked up against Canaan Smith-Njigba, Travis Swaggerty, Cal Mitchell, and maybe even Ryan Vilade and Chavez Young; as Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Connor Joe and Andrew McCutchen seem to have the Top 4 on lockdown.

So, maybe slightly better odds; but, maybe not as good as you think.

As of late there have been some rumblings-and not just social media fodder-surrounding the possibility of Owings having the inside track for the super utility role. Add in the fact(s) they have been been bouncing Maggi all around the infield, and that he has played every position in the Minors outside of catcher. Although it has be noted that the Pirates have only only ever used him as an infielder; even last year in the Minors.

Now, the Pirates-but more specifically Ben Cherington-has added another horse to the race, Mark Mathias; who Gary wrote about earlier today.

[Clearly this bit of news is going to go over well with Pirates Fans.]

With that all stirred-up and taken care of, we can look at the other reason(s) for the off-season buzz, which has everything to do with the newly instituted rules; especially the bigger bases and disengagement rules for pitchers.

In his Minor League Career, Bae has accumulated 91 stolen bases in 122 attempts; good for an approximate 75% success rate. Based on numerous studies, 67% is seen as the break-even point to determine whether or not stolen base attempts are helping your team.

Now, as far as the shift restriction rules are concerned, I believe the benefit that Bae will experience has been somewhat over stated.

Each report I have read on subject has stated that left-handed batters, who hit hard ground balls and line-drives to the pull-side, will see their numbers increase more dramatically.

Of the parameters for success above, Bae only falls comfortably into one. In his professional career, he has a ground ball rate of 56% even. Aside from that he is not a pull-hitter-coming in at 33.3% Pull/22.2% Center/44.4% Oppo-and he doesn’t really hit the ball hard consistently-landing just north of 80 MPH for his exit velocity.

Could he still be a productive MLB player? Absolutely!

And personally, I think he will be based purely on his track record.

Could he end up starting the season back in Triple-A? This is entirely possible.

He got a taste at the end of last year, and should be hungry for more. Still, they also need to make sure he gets regular at bats.

It’s just that right now, the path to that is not as unobstructed as it once appeared.

Make it Make Sense! Pirates Add Mark Mathias from the Rangers

3-9-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Let’s be real fair here, it’s kinda our mantra at Inside the Bucs Basement anyway, but I could run the first part of that headline 52 weeks a year and write something under it that you’d see as a GM making curious decisions. It’s as much part of the job as any trade they make.

All that said, there are times when I get inundated with questions that boil down to WTF is he doing? This week we got one more, as the Pirates traded a player to be named later to the Rangers for Mark Mathias. Set aside for a moment your fear of what a player to be named can be, it’s not likely to be along the lines of Shane Baz again folks.

I’ve seen Mathias characterized as a super utility type player, and I guess that’s true, at least so far as he plays all over the field, really best suited for the infield and outfield corners and second base. Which, sounds like about 5 or 6 other guys the Pirates already have right?

So again, what is he doing? Can’t he see the logjam he has? Why does he refuse to see what his own prospects can do? Doesn’t he see there is little to no room in AAA for these guys?

All fair questions, all very real questions I’ve gotten from all of you, and this subject rises beyond what the weekly Hump Day Q&A is meant to deal with, so here we are.

The Pirates have a role to fill, and that role is traditionally called a Super Utility. Essentially, a guy who you can stick just about anywhere and feel reasonably good about how they’ll handle it. The existing candidates for this role are Tucupita Marcano, Rodolfo Castro, Ji-hwan Bae, and Nick Gonzales. Maybe you could make a case for Chris Owings or Drew Maggi.

If you want to understand it, you have to start with brutal honesty.

Chris Owings is a journeyman, hasn’t really been considered a starter since 2018. Name a position, short of catcher and first base, he’s played there. A very capable defender, Chris earns his keep with his glove, while you deal with his bat. At best, he’s a guy who can hit, but doesn’t get on base enough to be a factor and lacks the power to counter that issue. He broke into the league in 2013 and ten years later he’s played 3 seasons in which he appeared more than 100 times. Very likely Owings has an out clause should he not make the team out of Spring. In other words, should he not make the club the chances he’s riding the pine in AAA Indianapolis is slim.

Drew Maggi can play everywhere but center field and catcher, but he’s been playing professional baseball since 2010 and hasn’t gotten one at bat in the Bigs. 1,147 games, 4,461 plate appearances and almost 34 years old, it’d be fair to ask Drew why he hasn’t moved on to his life’s work. He’s hitting the hell out of the ball in Spring, and honestly folks, it’s the only reason we’re talking about him. There just isn’t anything he does exceptionally well to hang your hat on. Hey, I said brutally honest.

Nick Gonzales has been deemed the second baseman of the future since the day he was drafted in 2020, you know, until the team drafted the next second baseman of the future in 2022 Termarr Johnson. Injury has slowed his progression, but strike outs, and especially his in zone Whiff rate has scared some prospect prognosticators. Reality though folks, he’s not on the 40-man, so I’m being kind by even including him here. He’s played primarily second base, so considering him a utility option, well, it’s just too early to paint him into that corner. First he has to make the bat matter, then we’ll deal with where he plays.

So before we continue here, we’ve essentially started with 2 veterans or at least older players, and one true prospect. None of which should be seen as a clear winner here, if not simply long shots.

Now back to our highly critical list…

Tucupita Marcano is only 23 years old and is already entering what will likely be his 3rd season where he registers MLB at bats. I’m not declaring him the winner here, I’m simply saying he’s on the short list for in season call ups regardless because of his versatility. He’s hit better in the minors than he has in the Majors, but nothing is more stark than his K/BB ratio change. In his 177 plate appearances last year with the big club he walked 10 times and struck out 44. You can get away with that if you’re also adding 10 dingers in that workload, but when your game is speed and havoc on the base paths, well, you have to be on the base paths. He can play everywhere but center field and catcher, although to say SS is his game is a stretch, he just doesn’t have all that much experience to point to there although he probably has the arm strength. Realistically he’s a corner outfielder who can also play second base.

Ji Hwan Bae is also 23 years old and he can play second base where he has most experience, but has handled SS, corner outfield and center as well. With speed in the 90th percentile getting to balls isn’t the issue, it’s more the field awareness and arm that present issues here. He’s always hit fairly well, but not for power although recently he’s had some success there as well. His range is fine, again the arm and decision making haven’t been the best. Almost a full season in AAA and a cup of coffee last year, he’s one of the less experienced options but right in the heart of this contest. I’d also argue, he’s one of the very few prototypical leadoff hitters the Pirates have in the system. Elephant in the room time. Bae was convicted of assault charges against his former girlfriend in 2019 from an incident that took place in 2017. As a result he was fined in his home country and suspended 30 games by MiLB under the domestic abuse policy. I don’t condone his actions, but I also won’t pretend it means he’s not a baseball player and one that’s extremely likely to make this club before too long. I mention this because some don’t seem capable of fairly evaluating the player because of the incident and their personal feelings that I don’t know, I guess he should never be able to work again. It’s not my job to defend him, it’s my job to look at a player.

Rodolfo Castro is the last one I listed there and the truth is, he’s in no danger of being sent down, but what his role here is happens to be his ability to backup positions the others can’t. As it stands now, he’s easily the best option they have at 3rd beyond Hayes and at least from what we’ve seen so far, the best SS of this group not named Owings. Again, he’ll make this team, but because of the other things he can do, the Pirates Super utility or whatever we’re calling it, might not HAVE to cover the whole gambit. In other words, those guys being capable at second base, well that allows Castro to float when necessary.

And now we get to the meat of this entire thing. Why the hell do they need another option?

Mark Mathias has actually pretty decent numbers, he’s right handed, and I can honestly say you do have to dip all the way to Gonzales before you get that in a younger player, and he can play just about anywhere but SS, CF and C.

The reason I went through that exercise and did it as viciously as I could while still trying to stay fair is to illustrate what a GM might be seeing when he looks at what he’s potentially bringing north on the 26-man.

By going through that, I think it’s fair to say, nobody has a strangle hold on this spot, but the need is very clear. Even if Castro winds up being the SS backup, reality is they’ll need someone they want to play 2B when he does. Add in that he’s going to be the backup 3B too and you start to see where at least some ABs will come from. Throw in the capability to handle an OF spot and it maybe separates some from others.

At the end of the day, this is a guy who has an option, so he doesn’t have to make this team to be depth, being that he’s on the 40-man, he’ll also be very likely to get a look at some point, and one thing he brings to the table that Bae or Marcano don’t, he has genuine power. I mean, he ain’t Alex Rodriguez mind you, but he can hit it out and from the right side, well, it’s not bad to have depth.

Maybe you read all this and it still doesn’t make sense, hey, all I can do is lay out what we know, that part is up to you. Honestly, it’s not something I’m most concerned about either so I found it to be a strange pickup. It’s even weirder when I look at the depth and the number of prospects who’ll be due to be protected from the Rule 5 in 2024. At some point the Pirates do need to shift their gaze to sorting through the cards they have, cause like Kenny Rogers said best, you gotta know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em. In order to know anything you also gotta see ’em. I’d do that this year, clearly Mr. Cherington for this one role at least doesn’t agree.

Hump Day Pittsburgh Pirates Q&A – Week 3

3-8-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Man, these things have been fun.

For the most part, and to your credit, these questions have been anything but boiler plate stuff. Really well thought out, and smart. Thanks to everyone, this feature is only as good as the questions you ask.

Let’s go. And if you sent a question that didn’t make it, chances are I already have it in next week’s draft.

Question 1

If you haven’t already discussed this, perhaps next week you can review what the collapsing revenue from the AT&T TV package will do to the Pirates contract extension negotiations with Reynolds. I believe the window may have closed on a big contract. Your thoughts would be appreciated. – Dale Merchant

Before I start, let me first give you some homework. Ethan Hullihen over at Pirates Prospects wrote what I consider to be one of the most comprehensive pieces on the RSN situation, and I mean nationally Dale, if you’ve asked it, it’s likely in there somewhere. I’ll warn you, it’s a READ, so grab a cup of joe and strap in.

That’s so you can get a handle on the entire situation should you want to. Now, if you just want my thoughts on how it would effect the Reynolds extension, or any expenditure for that matter, here we go.

I’ve been told the team expects “continuity” and I recently asked a beat reporter the question without leading him and he spit the same word back at me. What this means is the team expects to not feel this much. For one thing, the Pirates despite the Forbes report, only make a little over 45 million from their TV deal, and the likelihood they’ll get that again is pretty good. Probably not from another RSN, but they’ve been working on contingency plans for almost 18 months. Bottom line, if they don’t sign Reynolds, it’ll be because they didn’t get it done, and even if they try to pretend it’s because of this, I don’t believe it will be an accurate portrayal of their ability.

Question 2

What’s your thoughts so far on the spring training games with the pitching and new players? – Nicole Chewning

Hi Nicole, I kinda wrote a bunch of this in Monday’s 5 Pirates Thoughts so I’ll try to boil it down with some new stuff here. Overall, the new players have largely not impressed me, but they’re veterans, and old veterans, I also didn’t expect them to this early in Spring. Rich Hill looked great, but I honestly think he could roll out of bed and strike out the league MVP half the time.

The pitching overall, it’s so hard to really judge the starters, we’re just seeing them hit 3 innings now, and even that is if they keep pitch count under control. Brubaker looks good, Hill as I mentioned, Keller has looked decent at times, shaky at others, Roansy looks fine, but we’ll see how he has grown when he gets more time in. All in all, the fact we’re a couple weeks in and only have one notable injury is a win.

Question 3

How much of Suwinski’s struggles are due to the new batting stance and not being used to it yet? – Schappy (@Schapp19)

Jack worked with Andy Haines this off season to take this new approach. Now, a lefty will tend to open up their stance in an attempt to get a better look at what lefties are throwing, but by the time the ball gets there his lead leg is back where it always was and his swing mechanics look much the same. We’re still seeing him make good contact when he does make any, and he seems to have plenty of power still.

Point being, the stance isn’t robbing him of power. The strike out is still an issue, but no worst than last year so far. He also hasn’t faced a ton of lefties yet, which would be again the main purpose for changing the stance in the first place.

I think Suwinski’s struggles are because he doesn’t adjust with 2 strikes, but honestly I could cut and paste that for about 10 guys on the team. The new stance, it’s really more of a new starting point, the swing is what it was, plane, launch angle, really all of it. I’d blame the stance if he used to hit cover the outer third well and suddenly couldn’t.

I’ll also add in here, according to Jack, these were fairly minor changes, and he’s right. While it looks wildly different, it’s really more his setup. In his (and the coach’s mind) these were made to simplify some things for him, and for a chronic studier like Jack, that might not be a bad idea. We’ll see how it turns out.

Question 4

If Suwinski continues to scuffle this spring, who could/should be next man up to replace him in the lineup? – Michael – 412 Double Play Podcast 🏴‍☠️ (@412DoublePlay)

If Jack keeps struggling, could swaggerty or bae end up being the starting cf ?- Wilbert Matthews

What do you think is more likely to happen: The Pirates using Cutch and Suwinski as outfielders at the same time? Or on alternating days? – 𝒫𝒾𝓇𝒶𝓉𝑒 𝒬𝓊𝑒𝑒𝓃 𝐵𝒶𝓃𝓈𝒽𝑒𝑒☠️👑💛⚾️ (@PGHPirateQueen)

I’m sensing a Jack theme here. Tons of questions about him this week.

For one thing Michael, Queen & Wilbert, I think his bat has value, even if it winds up being a platoon. And that my friends is what I think they’d be forced into if it looks like he’s just going to continue to struggle against lefties. In that case, I think you could potentially see he and Cutch platoon which would slide Reynolds to center and Joe in left or right, whichever they’d like to do.

That said, the K’s aren’t just coming against lefties and that might force them to send him down. To me, he needs to get under 30% to stick and if he doesn’t, hey, take your pick. CSN, Mitchell, Swags, Young, could even go Tucupita, but the Pirates will have to at some point ask themselves, is 20-25 homeruns worth a K 30-35% of the time? Maybe it is for this version of the Pirates, but it certainly won’t be for a team that truly envisions taking playoff at bats.

Realistically though, the Pirates are focusing on Bae at 2B, and if they want him to be a CF option, my guess is he goes to AAA to focus on it. Swaggerty, well he might just sneak on this team anyway. The easiest thing to do would be to just revert to Reynolds, and I think that’s probably how they’d go at least until Swaggerty, Jack or Bae would prove they deserve starter at bats and win the position.

Question 5

Is there really anything to get out of spring training for the fans? I just can’t get interested. Good stats don’t matter….bad stats don’t matter. Game results don’t matter. I get slightly interested to see the kids that haven’t been seen beyond Indy, but that’s it. – Jim Bergreen (@jeb7524)

The short answer Jim is it’s entirely in the eye of the beholder. The longer answer is, well, stop looking at the stats and just watch/listen play by play, pitch by pitch. For instance, I learn more about where a hitter is by watching a 7 pitch at bat than I do seeing a first pitch homerun. I learn more seeing a pitcher struggle himself into trouble and fight his way out than a clean 1-2-3 on 8 pitches.

Watch the way the veterans interact with kids when they fail or succeed. All that being said Jim, I don’t like to watch preseason hockey or football for the same reasons you outlined. For me though, baseball is the most interesting because well, I’m following players at every level of this system all season long and if they didn’t need work I hardly want to see the vets at all.

If you aren’t interested, I get it, but by the 20th, we should see the rosters trimmed and more serious attempts to win games start. It still won’t matter, but at least you’ll be sure losing or winning matters to someone.

Question 6

Do you think stolen bases will be up this year since a pitcher can only throw over 3 times and the pitch clock? Runners could get a jump by watching the clock and if you’ve already drawn 3 throws it favors the base runner. How many bases could Omar Moreno have stolen with these rules in place? Hopefully the Pirates can take advantage of this. – Don Jacobson

Before I start here, lets be very clear about the rule. The pitcher can “disengage” 2 times without a penalty. This could be a throw, a step off, a fake throw, whatever. That 3rd throw has to result in an out or it’s a balk.

I’d agree it benefits the baserunner, but pitchers can mitigate this with some gamesmanship too. They can wait to come set, or they can get set and fire the ball right at 7-8 seconds, catchers can help try to keep runners close too by throwing to the bases. All that said, yes, I totally think we will see a resurgence of the stolen base in baseball. The MLB leader in stolen bases last year had 41, and I’d be shocked if that number didn’t hit 50-60 this season. Once replay is back for the regular season, a slow delivering pitcher is screwed. Take a guy like Oneil Cruz, he can run like a deer, choose to not pitch to him to avoid what he can do to you with the bat and you might as well put him on second base, if not third. Think about a guy like Ke’Bryan Hayes who had over 20 already. He’s become a good base stealer, now add all this in and he could easily get 30-35.

Oh yes my friend, I think we’ll see a TON of stolen bases.

Now why haven’t we seen a bunch early in Spring? I honestly think the injury risk plays in, and some of that gamesmanship I talked about. Teams aren’t going to want to give a preview of how they plan to defend it or attack it, and even that supposes they’ve formulated good plans as of yet.

The Yankees for instance abused the Pirates in their first matchup, but most of the guys you see running, well they played under this system already in the minors, so it’s easy to see why they can tell what’s coming.

Question 7

Drafting Crews make Reynolds a bit more expendable? As in, at some level Crews can take a vacated Reynolds OF spot? – Tom Robinson (@basketball2120)

This isn’t the NFL and this team just had the 1.1 pick a couple years ago with Henry Davis. He’s certainly not a lock to make it even this season to MLB. I can honestly say, no MLB teams, including the Pirates will make a Major League level decision based on a draft selection, even a 1.1.

I’d also say, as good as Crews looks, he’s hitting homeruns on 84 MPH fastballs mixed in with the few 90+ offerings he gets to face at that level. I don’t say that to imply he won’t be good, I say it to simply illustrate that the guy is going to have to play some minor league ball first.

Bryce Harper and Ken Griffey Jr. don’t happen all that often, and if a player goes to college, he probably wasn’t that level of talent to begin with. Again, could be a spectacular player, but you know the difference between those right out of high school to the league guys and a typical very good top of the board pick.

Crews isn’t one of those guys. Even if he was, I’d argue the opposite would be true, they have Reynolds for 3 years regardless at this point, so if you can drop a stud right next to him, you’d think they’d ride that train. Think about it, if they chose to skip all the manipulation shiz for this guy, you think they’d take away someone they need to make it matter?

Hope that covers it well, also, I’m not 100% it’ll be Crews, long way to go yet and that simple fact is evidence he isn’t one of those guys.

Question 8

Actual Q&A question. Does Chavez Young have a shot at cracking this roster? I know it’s spring I know it’s SSS. But he’s looked pretty good! – Nolan Grossman (@NolanGrossman)

Geez Nolan, I guess he could, but I’d say it sure would be hard for me to get there. He’s played decent defense but as you are by far not the only person to ask about him this week I have a theory. Chavez is hitting .188 this Spring, but his double and homerun were on televised games.

Now, I’m not saying you or anyone else is ignorant, but I do feel things you see are a lot more powerful than things you don’t. At 25 years old I’m not sure keeping pace with the other OF competitors is good enough. He’s also gotten more opportunity early because of his WBC inclusion than most of his competition.

Let’s be real here. Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski and Connor Joe are almost all locks. So they have one spot available, I’d have a very hard time giving it to Chavez over say a Swaggerty who is also 25, a number one pick and having a nice Spring himself.

I can’t rule it out, and I like his speed and defense too, I just don’t see a path, barring injury to a couple guys.

Question 9

For Wednesday: for pitching and hitting Spring Training it’s ok to say “I’m trying my new stuff”, but for fielding, less so. Do you have any takeaways so for from the fielding aspect of ST? – Douglas Smith

First off my man Dougie Fresh here is down in Bradenton as we speak and he was planning to focus on defense this year before he even booked his accommodations. Here’s what I see so far.

The outfield is almost impossible to evaluate at least as it comes to the field tool. The wind and sun have just made every fly ball a potential error or double depending on who is keeping score. So when I watch them, I’m looking for things like, did they get to the ball? Did they make a good throwing decision after they got it? How strong did the throw look, even if the wind took it and shoved it 10 feet off line?

In the infield, First base is clearly improved. Literally Santana, Choi or Joe have all looked more at home there than anyone they had last season. There just isn’t much more to say. They’ve all made nice plays.

Second base is by far the most interesting. Castro has to me the best mix of range and arm, Bae and Marcano have better range but the arm isn’t as good. All 3 will need to show they can help cover SS and Bae looked awful in his shot at it.

Catchers have all been pretty decent looking.

Cruz has clearly worked on footwork, and he’s clearly working on making routine throws look, well, more routine. He’s had one throw really sail on him, and aside from that, I haven’t really even seen him challenge the first basemen to make a super challenging “save” over there.

You’re right Doug, good defense should always matter, and I get the impression it does to the players too. I see far more looks of disappointment on the faces of guys who make an error or poor decision than anyone who’s given up a screaming liner or struck out in 20 seconds.

Question 10

What is the routine for a starting pitcher beginning with day after their start up to the day of next start. Long toss? Bullpen? – Drew Caryll

Most guys will do minimal activity the day after a start, then they’ll start lifting the next day. Day 3 tends to be a bullpen, and they’ll work on something there a bit, or just get the motion of X number of pitches in. Day 4 is back to training a bit, and the last one is typically charting and game planning.

This stuff changes as guys evolve. Rich Hill for instance, he might simply not want to do a mid week full scale bullpen, and at his age, nobody is really going to question it, but if Roansy was to show up on Wednesday and say he thinks bullpens are useless, let’s just say he might be convinced otherwise.

Some guys bike 4 times a week, some guys feel all that cardio robs them of needed stamina in game.

As with most things baseball, everyone is different.

Examining Pirates Spring Training Narratives

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-bsnb6-13ae748

Craig and Chris sit down to discuss the remaining roster spots and who likely fits into them; including bench pieces and the fifth man in the rotation. They go on to talk about veterans in the clubhouse and the next men up. 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Top 5 Pirates Prospects: Bradenton Marauders

3-7-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

At this point in the off-season, plotting out the Minor League assignments across the Pirates Farm System is a little bit of a guessing game; but, a very fun one if you are into prospects.

In fact I enjoy it so much that I had Ben Pokorny-new Voice of the Bradenton Marauders-on my podcast recently to breakdown potential players that could land in Low-A to begin the year; or at the very least, could be there at some point during the season.

Among the names mentioned-as well as some that may have come to mind afterward-are some of the Top Prospects for Pittsburgh; which means the job of narrowing it down to just five could be fairly difficult.

Nevertheless, I’m going to try it anyway.

1) Termarr Johnson-2B

Less than two weeks ago, the Pirates #1 Prospect-according to almost every outlet-saw his first taste of Major League Spring Training cut short thanks to a hamstring injury; following some infield drills.

Ultimately, as a precaution, Johnson would be shut down for 10 to 14 days; and, was sent back to Minor League Camp.

This should be no surprise, considering what this young man could mean to the future of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Drafted less than a year ago by Ben Cherington and Company with the 4th Overall Pick, the Georgia high school standout immediately started receiving comparisons Wade Boggs-due to plate discipline-and Vladmir Guerrero’s bat-to-ball skills.

Given a 70-grade hit tool by MLB Pipeline, excitement surrounding Johnson was hard for many Pirates Fans to contain. And luckily, due to some aggressive decision making Cherington, they wouldn’t have to wait very long to see him.

After only 9 games and 29 plate appearances, he was aggressively moved up to Bradenton on a random Wednesday afternoon at LECOM Park; going 1 for 4, and collecting his first hit on a single in the bottom of the 8th.

Over his 14 games in a Marauders uniform, Johnson would slash .275/.396/.450 with one home run-of the inside the park variety-and 13 strikeouts to 10 walks.

Now, I have seen some project that Pittsburgh will continue to be aggressive with their Top Prospect by assigning him to High-A Greensboro to start the season; however, I am just not sure I am there yet. With only 53 plate appearances above Rookie Ball, it makes sense to me, for him to have a launching pad to get up to speed before making the jump.

2) Thomas Harrington-RHP

Since the Pirates have come out of the Pandemic, resting the majority of their prep/high school and college arms in the year they are drafted has become the norm. This was no different for the Harrington, who pitched 92 innings during his sophomore season at Campbell Univerity, home of the Fighting Camels.

After walking on his Freshman year, Harrington earned Big South Freshman and Big South Pitcher of The Year in consecutive years; striking out 186 batters across 168.1 innings; including a school record of 111 during his senior season. With a plus (55 Grade) fastball that levels out between 90-95 mph, an upper-70’s (50 Grade) curve, a fading (55 Grade) mid-80’s slider and his best pitcher in the form of a mid-80’s swing and miss (60 Grade) changeup, he posted a combined 2.94 ERA with a 1.069 WHIP.

At the moment Harrington has yet to throw his first professional pitch; still, I would think his experience, along with the level of competition he has faced would fit right in at Low-A.

3) Jun-Seok Shim-RHP

Over the past few years, the Pirates have become legitimate players in the International Market.

Beginning with Ben Cherington and Company signing 16 year-old Australian outfielder Solomon Maguire to a $594,000 deal a mere 3 months on the job, Pittsburgh has gone on to acquire five Top 30 Prospects over the past three years; bookended by Shim, who was listed at #10, and had multiple suitors.

Predicted to go 1:1 in the KBO Draft-prior to withdrawing himself from it altogether-the 18 year-old South Korean righty agreed to a $750,000 bonus with the Pirates.

On the mound Shim commands and controls two of his four pitches-a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a 12-6 curveball-very well, while working to develop a slider and change-up.

Due to the need for this development, it is possible that Shim could start out in the FCL to hone his skills, much like Po-Yu Chen did back in 2021 And, if he dominates like Chen did, he should come up to Bradenton pretty quickly.

4) Shalin Polanco-OF

Speaking of major international acquisitions.

Following the delay of 2020-21 of the signing period, Pittsburgh-and Ben Cherington in particular-officially made his mark by inking the 11th Ranked Prospect to the second highest bonus in the Ball Club’s history; coming in at $2.35 million.

At only 16 years-old Shalin Polanco was on the tip of so many Pirates Fans tongues. Since then, some of the shine has started to fade; even though it’s not like he has accumulated enough at bats to know exactly what the future holds for this young man.

In 324 plate appearances-split between the Dominican Summer League and FCL-Polanco has slashed .225/.303/.353 with 6 homers and 22 total extra base hits.

Clearly the slash line-coupled with a 27% K-rate in Complex League-leaves something to be desired; however, at almost a full two years younger than the competition, some struggles are to be expected. Although, as you can see-the raw power can’t be denied.

Which begs the question, what can we expect from the newly turned 19 year-old? Well, for one I think we should look for Polanco to harness the power, as he has really started to grow into his projectable frame.

And second, his zone recognition could improve as he matures; leading to an improved balance of walks to strikeouts.

If he can do both, it’s possible this might be the breakout season we have been waiting for from Polanco.

5) Michael Kennedy-LHP

I feel like most people who follow sports in Pittsburgh are more accustomed to the NFL Draft.

Players are often drafted in order of their ranking(s); with a team need(s) mixed in. That’s why it is such a big deal when a player is left sitting at their table-surrounded by friends and family-as they unexpectedly fall down the board.

When it comes to baseball things are quite different, as sign-ability often comes into play for players who have made strong commitments to a particular college program.

In the case of lefty Michael Kennedy it was LSU that stood in the way of Major League Teams taking the risk of drafting him at around his ranking of 89-according to MLB Pipeline. Ultimately he slid down to the Pirates at the 110th Pick in the 4th Round; and required a $1,000,000 signing bonus, which was approximately $445,400 over slot.

Seen as a having as an advanced arm for his age due to three pitch mix-a low-90’s fastball, an upper-70’s slider and a low 80’s changeup-a feel for each offering and an extremely repeatable delivery, Kennedy could end up skipping the Complex League altogether.

Conclusion

Each time I look at the potential Bradenton Roster, my eyes constantly drift up and down from Greensboro to the Florida Complex League; trying to figure out exactly where Ben Cherington and Company will look to place each player on this list, as well as others. All while preparing landing spots for the upwards of 20 prospects that will be selected in the 2023 MLB Draft.

No matter the decisions that are made-or the players that make their way to and through Bradenton-it should be fun season of Marauders baseball.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Spring Update Edition

3-6-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Good afternoon Bucco fans!

I don’t usually do these with a theme, but as we’re just about smack dab in the middle of this thing, it feels like a good time to focus on where we are.

It’s been a positive Spring so far, and to listen to the players, well, it doesn’t mean anything, but they don’t sound like they have these past 3 years do they? Maybe that’s cause there are so few of them who were here for all of it.

Spring isn’t about numbers nearly as much as technique, approach, conviction. You want to see good habits more than good numbers. If that third straight fastball on the outside corner got hammered, as long as the goal was hitting that spot 3 times, it’s a good outing.

I say this because while there certainly will be some numbers in my observations, they’re all rooted in what I’ve seen, and cross compared with what I’ve been told or read that players are working on. I don’t have that information for everyone, in fact, very few people who aren’t in the locker room do, but pitchers for instance, well they’re really open with reporters, especially when they got shelled working on something.

I can’t speak for everyone who covers baseball, but speaking for myself, covering Spring Training baseball is the hardest time of the year. First of all, you have the spotty coverage, and let’s face it, most of us are lucky if we make it down there for a week. Second, you always have small sample size, from start to finish. Even if I know what Hayes is working on, I can’t begin to guess what the pitcher he’s facing is doing, you get it? So in many ways, you’re constantly arguing with yourself about stats even mattering, or making sure everyone knows that non-roster invitee hitting .388 isn’t making the team.

Let’s Go!

1. Health Check

Thankfully, this will be short. According to reporters, Andrew McCutchen will be fine after being hit in the hand in Sunday’s contest.

Jarlin Garcia is supposed to undergo an MRI to look into his arm today. As of right now, he hasn’t been ruled out of the WBC but if there is even so much as a 2 or 3 week break, he’ll of course be held out. All eyes on this situation, because after Garcia the lefty mix goes straight to a Rule 5 draftee, and a bunch of NRIs. In fact, this type of situation to me would tell us something about the management. If he’s out for a significant amount of time, I’d like to think they would consider trading from the depth they have elsewhere to go get a replacement. Hernandez is interesting, but I don’t want to enter a season with a AA lefty being “counted” on to carry more than he should.

It looks like Ji-man Choi has gotten to the point where he and the team are starting to believe his elbow is fully recovered. This week was all about dipping the toe back in, and it would seem all tests have been passed.

2. Anyone Really Standing Out in the Pen?

This could be good or bad. You can stand out for the wrong reasons too and I think we’ve certainly seen some of that. Short sample size is across the board, so don’t expect me to reiterate it for each entry, but I know it’s there, and I know they all could get better or worse from here.

Good – Chase De Jong, Colin Holderman, Dauri Moreta, Jose Hernandez and Wil Crowe. Here’s the thing, Chase is the same pitcher he was last year, even as he tries to add another pitch to his mix, he gets results, and those results don’t match his peripherals. Meaning, he is doing well, and the numbers say he shouldn’t be, AKA, Lucky. At some point though, you have to believe what’s being shown, and the dude gets outs.

Holderman damn near hit 100 on the gun the other day, and honestly folks, he just looks filthy. A healthy Colin is a really good Colin. Hard hitting analysis I know, but what do you expect from 2 innings of work? Moreta has simply been impressive, he looks confident, and man, he’s got about 3 pitches he can use for strike outs, really encouraging. Wil Crowe is trim and confidently working through his repertoire on the mound. Yeah he gave up a dinger, but everything is going where he wants and he has the strike out working for him too.

Last one I’ll touch on is Jose Hernandez. I mean, a rule 5 guy, touching 98-99 and striking out guys with relative ease. the thing to watch here is his command. He can place heat at that velocity, and counter it with the off speed. Honorable mention here to Caleb Smith and NRI with a chance to begin with, but if Garcia is hurt, a front runner for a gig.

Bad – Jarlin Garcia, Tyler Chatwood. Garcia has a track record, and his performance could be injury driven, but bad is bad and thus far, he’s been exactly that. Tyler Chatwood is an NRI, and I try not to include them in these types of evaluations because if they were expected to be good they likely aren’t NRIs, but because he was a name many of us recognized, he’s just been a huge no so far. He’s arguably looked worse than anyone else they’ve put on the mound.

3. Any Prospects Stepping Up?

Endy Rodriguez – There’s likely not a less surprising name I could type. He’s only had 9 ABs but everything you’ve heard, yup. The important thing to take away from what he’s done is probably that he looks decent behind the plate. Arm looks good, receives the ball well, seems to frame relatively well although let’s be honest, Spring training camera work isn’t ideal.

Kyle Nicolas – Very impressive so far. He’s always had good stuff, but now he’s placing it, at least early on. He’s not a candidate for this year, at least not as a starter, but if he continues on this path he could really open eyes in 2023.

Carmen Mlodzinski – Oh man, so nice to see him look like the 2nd round pick he was. Carmen is finally fully healthy and looks like he’s finally grown into his body. Still walking too many guys in his SSS, but encouraging to say the least.

Travis Swaggerty – Bruh, listen, he’s hitting .250 ok, I get it, but just watching him, he looks different. Swinging with more confidence, has the OPS up at .875, playing killer defense. This doesn’t add up to lock to make the team, but he looks the part right now, and that’s more than I can say I’ve ever felt watching him play.

Those are the guys who’ve stood out to me. There have been moments from others, but nobody who’s blown my doors off or showed up looking far superior to what I expected to see. If you want someone like Drew Maggi mentioned, you’ll have to convince me the definition of “prospect” includes guys like that.

4. Most Concerning Things So Far

There have been more items here than I’d like to see. As with everything, it’s early, but I can’t help but point out a few things.

Jack Still Can’t Stop Striking Out – 13 plate appearances, 7 Strike outs. If he were say Matt Fraizer, I don’t say much here, but Jack is supposed to be counted on this year in a starter’s role, in fact the Pirates have moved Reynolds to left field largely because Jack can handle center, but he simply can’t keep striking out this much. He’s changed his stance to be more open, but unfortunately thus far it hasn’t really helped him make contact. Keep in mind, I’m not looking for numbers this early, I’m looking for approach, patience, adjustments and sadly all I see is a stance change early on. If anything, this stance isn’t likely to help with covering the outer third of the plate, so I’d really like to see some improvement this Spring as it plays out. He can hit 20 homeruns and strikeout a ton, but it won’t make him a long term answer out there.

Johan Oviedo Doesn’t Look Right – We’re talking 2 innings here folks, and for a starter in Spring looking to transition from a 4 seam fastball to a 2 seam sinker style fastball. Problem is, it’s not much different from the 4-seamer from a vertical break standpoint, and more than that it seems every ball off the bat is a screamer. There was buzz that the Pirates wanted him to push to make the rotation out of Spring, but as we sit here, I can’t even say he should be considered the first call up. Too many things don’t look polished for that line of thinking. I’ll say this though, for those of you who think signing vets as placeholders is a bad idea, this right here is why you do it. There’s talent there, he just isn’t where he needs to be, again, it’s early.

Left Handed Pitching – Color me shocked. I never felt they had enough, and with Garcia potentially injured, the absolutely don’t have enough. The chances they will have to break camp with at least 1 NRI lefty, well, that’s not ideal. If it turns out this is a long term injury here, they may have to consider pulling together a baseball trade. Take one of the fringy OF or middle infielders and see if you can’t buy yourself a lefty. It’s one thing to have this injury happen in June and feel stuck, but in March, fix it. As it stands, aside from Jose Hernandez, I could make an argument that Tyler Samaniego a AA lefty has been the best option so far and he’s only gone an inning and it was late against other AA and AAA players.

5. Things That Make Me Feel Positive

Ke’Bryan Hayes – Folks, if you haven’t gotten a chance to see any of his games this year, it’s more than a stat sheet. He looks bigger, he looks focused, and more than anything he’s taking great at bats and punishing baseballs like he hasn’t since 2020. Wrist and back completely healthy, Hayes is exploiting his power capability to both gaps and covering the plate like few on this team do. Again, 7 at bats, I’m not looking for numbers here so I’m not looking at an OPS of 1.286 and telling you he’s going to be what he was in 2020, but I know what a good Hayes approach looks like, and what we’ve seen so far is that. I know what explosiveness from the bat looks like, and he’s been bringing the thunder. Of everyone on the roster, he’s the one player I have nothing negative to say about as of yet, a literal perfect start.

Liover Peguero – It’s funny, he’s entering his second year on the 40-man, so mentioning his name as a potential player to win a spot shouldn’t be out on a limb, and yet, it seems everyone is completely set that he’ll simply be the starting AAA SS. Even I have to say that’s likely, but folks, the bat plays, and if Cruz is indeed to stick at short, finding a new place for Liover to play is going to have to be a thing eventually. Either way, it’s been good to see him clean up some of the things that have plagued him at the plate. He looks more patient, and if he holds firm with that approach, he’ll be hard to hold back for long.

Connor Joe – This is good and bad. Of all the veterans brought in to fill roles on this club, nobody has looked more put together and complete than Joe. He draws walks, he doesn’t strike out and he’s more apt to hit doubles than homers, but I think one thing when he comes to the plate, professional hitter. I was not a big fan of this acquisition, but watching him so far, it’s super easy to see him carving out a nice role for himself off the bench and even start for a stretch if need be. From the right side it’s super valuable for this club, and it’ll help take the pressure off Andrew McCutchen a bit too.

Oneil Cruz – 10 plate appearances, 1 strikeout. At least someone took the cutting back on K’s speech seriously. He’s special, what can I say really. When you can flick your wrists, hit a ball off the end of the bat and it turns into a 375 foot opposite field homerun, AND limit strikeouts, well, you go from worrisome to frightening. I’d also add, defensively his footwork looks much cleaner and according to staff, nobody, not one other player has put in more extra work in the field both last year and this Spring. He wants this position, and he wants to be more than a HR or nothing guy too. Pittsburgh fans, you know what happens when talent meets will to put in the work? Of course you do, you just haven’t seen it on the Pirates all that often.

Digging into Burrows

3-5-23 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on Twitter

The idea that greatness can come from anywhere typically doesn’t apply to baseball players in New England. Sure, we’ve seen a fair few find success at the major league level, but it’s certainly not the norm. And RHP Michael Burrows didn’t have a ton of acclaim as a high schooler from Connecticut entering the 2018 MLB draft:

Burrows is a projectable pitcher with a quick arm, throwing from a three-quarters arm slot; he has a good chance to add velocity as he fills out.  By the time of the 2018 draft, his fastball could touch 93 MPH, although it usually sat in the upper 80s with good sink and location.  Burrows also throws a curve, slider, and change, with the slider being his best pitch.  He wasn’t ranked in Baseball America’s top 500 prospects, but was the number five prospect out of Connecticut this year. (Pirates Prospects)

Picked in the 11th round of the 2018, Burrows opted to accept an overslot signing bonus of $500K to bypass his commitment to play in college at UConn. Following his signing, Burrows pitched 4 games of rookie ball (including 3 starts), compiling 14 scoreless innings with 4 hits, 4 walks and 9 strikeouts. He moved to short-season ball in West Virginia in 2019, where he started 11 games with a 4.33 ERA over 43.2 innings. 

  • 2022 Futures Game

The pandemic shut down his 2020 season, but he continued working out on his own to get better in the down-time. Skipping the low-A level, Burrows jumped straight to hi-A Greensboro, a notoriously hitter-friendly park. He started 13 games, posted a 2.20 ERA with 66 strikeouts, 20 walks and only 3 home runs over 49 innings. He continued that dominance in 2022, starting in Altoona where he started 12 games, 52 innings, 69 strikeouts to 19 walks, and a 2.94 ERA – earning an appearance in the Futures Game – before a late season push to Indianapolis.

He had some struggles at Indianapolis and spent some time on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation. His overall numbers are a bit inflated due to his final appearance of the season, which came against Columbus on September 28, and where he allowed 6 runs off 5 hits, 1 walk and only recorded 2 outs. He may have been rushed back too soon from injury as this was the result. Take away this outing, his numbers in AAA don’t look so bad. Certainly there is room for improvement. However, looking at his strikeout numbers and his walk rate, along with his mix of pitches, there is a lot to like.

SeasonTeamLevelK/9BB/9K/BBHR/9K%BB%K-BB%AVGWHIPBABIPLOB%FIP
2018PITR5.792.572.250.0017.6%7.8%9.8%.1330.71.16791.7%3.66
2019PITA-8.864.122.150.4122.3%10.4%11.9%.2571.47.33361.7%3.54
2021PITA+12.123.673.300.5534.2%10.4%23.8%.1410.90.20874.8%3.28
2022PITAA11.943.293.630.5232.4%8.9%23.5%.1981.10.29276.6%2.72
2022PITAAA8.932.553.501.0623.3%6.7%16.7%.2691.35.33360.8%3.98

If you’ve ever seen Burrows pitch, you know he has a devastating low-80s curveball with a HUGE 12-6 drop, along with a mid-90s rising fastball. Both of these pitches are rated highly, however, coming into the 2022 season, there were concerns that having only those two pitches would lead to him being relegated to the bullpen long-term.

https://www.mlb.com/video/mike-burrows-on-his-curveball?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share

In Spring Training last year, Burrows noticeably had a reformed pitch – a changeup in the mid-80s with deceptive spin. It was raw. It was new. And, throughout the season, it was working. His changeup is currently rated a 60 on the 20-80 scale by FanGraphs, who noted that he threw the pitch 16% of the time and induced a 53% whiff rate. A video released from spring training (courtesy of Alex Stumpf of DKPS) shows Burrows having added a slider as well.

He pitched two innings in Thursday’s game against the Blue Jays, allowing 1 very soft hit and 1 walk on a full count. He worked mostly with his fastball and changeup, with a few curveballs thrown in there. He didn’t show his slider in the game. At this point, it is most likely they have him focusing on establishing his fastball and changeup before adding to his repertoire. His fastball was sitting mid-90s and his curve had a spin rate of 2,981 RPM – well above league-average spin rates.

With all these impressive stats through the ranks, along with a solid build, velocity, pitch-mix and control, why aren’t more people talking about him? Quinn Priester has been widely talked about as THE GUY since he was drafted in the first round of 2019. Luis Ortiz sky-rocketed through the system last season, with many (myself included) anointing him as the ace of the future. Burrows, however, has largely flown under the radar. 

He has never appeared on a top 100 prospects list. He only just cracked the top ten on Pirates lists this past year. But unlike many other young pitchers, Burrows has above-average control. And now, he potentially could have 4 above-average pitches. Of the young aces-in-the-making, Burrows is by far the most polished and could have the highest ceiling. This is going to be a name whom fans should become familiar with very, very soon.

Chances are Earned, Not Given

3-3-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
Follow the Site @ITdoubleB on Twitter

It hasn’t always been this way.

Early in a rebuild there tends to be very little prospect depth with a bunch of upside anywhere near the league, so you see opportunity tossed to guys like Phil Evans, or Will Craig, regardless of what they’ve done to earn it. The team needs warm bodies, and sometimes the reason a player gets an opportunity is simply because they’re next up.

That said, the Pirates have moved to a new stage of this effort, and the time for that sort of thinking is largely over. From here on out, it’ll be more about who is pushing, who has displayed an ability to improve an area of concern, maybe even how final the counter move will be play a factor.

If there’s one thing I hear just about all day every day from Pirates fans it’s usually “I love this guy, hope he gets a chance!”.

Insert whatever name you want there, Bae, Marcano, Nunez, Swaggerty, on and on. Then, getting a chance for many isn’t enough, it has to be at a certain spot on the field, or a specific place in the lineup.

Chances now though, well they come from a few key areas because the roster is largely full. Those areas are injury, trade, undeniable good performance, undeniable poor performance.

When you get to this point, decisions aren’t just about a prospect looking ready, no, now you have to take into account how you make room, who loses their job? If they lose their job, do you want to find a way to keep the player around? Are you entirely ready to move on? Don’t even need him as an insurance policy?

This is where the rubber hits the road for a general manager. You can fail at any one pit stop along the way, like identifying talent, drafting well, developing, all of it, but to me, nothing says more about the acumen of the decision makers than how they handle on boarding talent from top prospect to MLB regular.

Lets walk through some methods teams use to get a prospects feet wet, and the pitfalls and benefits they come with.

The Cup of Coffee

We see the Pirates do this a lot. It’s the September call up that typically precedes a guy being expected to make the leap in the following year, or the team being forced into a 40-man decision to protect the talent from the upcoming Rule 5 draft. A good example of this was Luis Ortiz, the Pirates knew they were going to protect their rocketing prospect this past winter, so why wait? They added him last year and got him a start. Now, Ortiz was so impressive he bought himself 3 more, that was clearly unexpected, but welcome.

That means Ortiz is expected to make the jump this year. The team has a few boxes they’ll want him to check and then it’ll be time to give him a bit of a run. Starting pitchers are by far one of the scariest onboarding processes for teams. The last thing you want to do is eat up a year or two of control ping ponging a guy back and forth, but you also have to walk the line on killing their confidence leaving them in a situation that they can’t handle.

Best case scenario, you have a short term injury, or demotion to the bullpen not due to overt depressing performance from a veteran that gives the prospect a crack he’s earned by performing at the lower level. If he does great, he maybe keeps the spot and pushes aside the vet, or, he goes back to work on something little and the team knows, OK, we can move on from this vet now, this guy is ready.

It’s a dance. For hitters, it’s just a bit less stressful. So long as the team feels they can give enough at bats, there isn’t much preventing them from trying.

Win the Job Out of Spring

This is one the Pirates don’t employ often, but they do allow it more than you think, just not with top prospects.

Just last season though, we saw them allow Diego Castillo to win the job out of Spring. Now, he had to be a special prospect. Had to play well to get the opportunity to be sure, but he had to be older, not considered a top guy who the team was concerned about losing a year of control over, and play the right positions.

Baseball has provided some incentives to change this thinking for top-top prospects, but not enough to convince teams that can’t afford to lose that free extra year. This is not Super-2 by the way, that’s a separate issue that makes this last even longer, and is entirely about money, whereas the initial weeks long delay is about the extra year of control.

I’d also add in here, you don’t find many teams claiming they’re “ready to win” who plan to start 2 or 3 rookies. There’s a reason for that of course, most rookies kinda stink.

So it leads teams to “block” their rookies more often than not. Basically give ’em someone to beat. Maybe that resistance is more like the tape across a finish line, maybe it’s a bit more but the concept is there.

The Super 2 Guys

It’s frustrating. No if and or buts, that said, every team in the league plays this game from time to time. Its all about money, not control.

That said, there aren’t many that come up where you can’t make some kind of reasonable argument that the player might not be ready. Last year this was Oneil Cruz, and I can honestly say, whatever the Pirates were waiting to see in AAA, he didn’t do it. Nothing measurably improved from the beginning of his AAA season to his call up. It was blatant. Had they improved his defense, ok, maybe I’ll give it to you, but I feel pretty comfortable saying he was the same player on his call up he’d have been if they let him break camp in 2022, and he’d be that much more experienced too.

Endy on the other hand this year, well, he legitimately hasn’t caught all that much, and I can see wanting him to get at least a little time to work on it. That said, Austin Hedges is who I’d want him learning from and he of course is an MLB player.

Endy is different because he could actually stand to learn some more, but even there, I’m giving the Pirates a lot of credit. Still, how they handle this isn’t 100% clear yet. Hedges is a brilliant defensive catcher, and Endy will certainly not be that from the jump. I feel if they don’t get him at least half a season WITH Hedges they’ve made a mistake.

Those are two examples, but it certainly doesn’t apply to all prospects. We talked about Ortiz already, but he’s a guy who could wind up getting Super 2 status, but unintentionally.

Too Many Dogs; Too Few Bones

The Pirates are largely there at a bunch of positions. Here’s where the GM has to be smart. The reality is, you aren’t going to treat everyone fairly. You aren’t going to make sure everyone gets some magic number of at bats or innings. At some point you’re going to have to trust the AAA numbers and give a guy a chance. And you have to know it’s not just a couple week audition, it legitimately should be a month or two.

If you really think something is there, you owe it to yourself to see.

Travis Swaggerty is a first round pick, 25 years old, tremendous defender who’s been injured and lost a season to COVID. In other words, being drafted out of college combined with those other factors, well, they’ve made him old for a prospect with very little MLB time through little fault of his own.

His AAA numbers aren’t all that impressive, but at 25, it’s getting to the point where he either takes his swing or maybe doesn’t get one here.

If he does well in Spring, the Pirates won’t care about Super 2, might not eve care about the extra year. As it sits now he’ll be what 31 when his control is over? Point is, if they want, they can pretty easily let him win in Spring, give him his shot early, and best case, he takes the ball and runs with it.

If he doesn’t, well the Pirates have 5 more behind him itching for a shot.

If you’re going to flush Swaggerty, you better be right.

Sounds super simplistic like that, but this is really where all this stuff comes to a focal point. When these guys reach the league, you better be sure your coaches are helping not hurting. You better make sure you have communicated a plan to make sure they get a decent shake. You better have a plan for if he fails, as well as if he succeeds.

This is stuff we can’t predict. We have yet to really see it play out aside from Ke’Bryan Hayes and Roansy. Roansy was just weird, starting pitchers especially don’t tend to come in like that, a total blessing. Hayes, well, he’s a no doubt MLB player, so technically a win, but he’s still got some work to do to make the team look like they handled his onboarding well.

Man, what a sport.

You could think all day about 2 fringe players on the roster before you get around to discussing a guy calling his shot with a 30/30 season.

Point is, seeing how Cherington handles this group of prospects is going to be fascinating, here’s hoping it’s smart too.

Minor League News and Brews: Greensboro Grasshoppers Preview

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-ppcxs-13a3d58

In yet another BONUS Episode of the podcast, Craig is joined by Anthony Murphy from Pirates Prospects to break down the High-A roster, and preview some players you could see in a Grasshoppers Uniform this season. 

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and is a huge Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Fan; especially when it comes to the Farm System. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Minor League Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!